How "Safe" is your congressional district?

[Citizen James]

So, how safe is your congressional district?  Would the incumbent have to be caught in bed with a dead woman or live boy to get the boot, or do you have a tight contest every time around...

[Frodo]

Let's just say that my representative (Jim Moran) will have this seat until he either dies or retires, and even if he does so, it will remain safely Democratic for decades to come, and with redistricting earlier this decade, this district has only become more safely Democratic.  No Democrat who takes up this seat has any need to fear serious challengers from the GOP. 

[Nym90]

My district is Michigan's 1st.

Right now it's quite safe; Stupak has absolutely no chance of losing, considering he's running against an opponent he's already beaten by roughly a 2 to 1 margin in the past.

If or when Stupak retires or runs for higher office, it would be a competitive seat, although despite it voting Republican for President in the last two elections, the Democrats would have to be favored to hold the seat as they have a deeper bench in the district.

[Jake]

Usually option 2, since that pretty much happened to Sherwood, it's now probably option 4.

[TeePee4Prez]

You know my answer.  Any questions?

[Joe Biden 2020]

My former Congressional District, ending August 13, 2006, is OK-5 which is safely Republican barring a major-league scandal, even with it being an open seat.

My new CD, starting August 14, 2006, is OK-3 (NW Oklahoma), is even more safely Republican.  It will go Democrat when the sun turns to a red square.

[TheresNoMoney]

My district is actually a Democratic district (went for Kerry by 5% or 6%), but has almost always been held by a Republican. Incumbents almost never lose in NH.

If Hodes can knock Bass of this year, I suspect he'd be pretty safe in this district as well.

[Virginian87]

My home congressional district, Virginia's 11th, has always been fairly safe for Republican Tom Davis (a moderate) since he was first elected in 1994.  However, in 2004 Fairfax County went 53% for John Kerry, the first time it voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 40 years.  Further evidence of a Democratic trend was shown by the county's strong support of Tim Kaine in the 2005 state elections.  So while his district has become more Democratic, Davis remains safe...for now.  When he leaves to try for John Warner's Senate seat (as many expect him to do), I think a Republican will have to work pretty hard to replace him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Somewhere between 3 and 4. I voted 4.

[Smash255]

NY-03

Generally has been a safe district for Peter King, however has been Democratic in Pres elections (went to Clinton twice, Gore by double digits in 2000, though Bush won it in 04, mainly due to 9/11.   Under the current lines Bush would have won the district by a oint or two in 92, and Gore by 9 in 2000.

King has won by solid margins, but has not faced a well funded or well known challenger.  Some of the pundits have called it safe (but most of those predictions were made before Mejias entered thr race and raised over $200k in 5 weeks.  Seat definatley leans towards King, but isn't safe this year, and won't be safe in 08 either (provided a strong Dem challenger emerges as well.  It has been safe for awhile, but now its going to lean in King's direction and he will have to fight.  Will lean Dem once King retires or is defeated.

[Speed of Sound]

despite being a GOP district, even a dead woman AND dead boy couldnt shake loose Timmy Holden. Hell, if he died today, theyd still elect him in November......then re-elect him two years later.

[Keystone Phil]

despite being a GOP district, even a dead woman AND dead boy couldnt shake loose Timmy Holden. Hell, if he died today, theyd still elect him in November......then re-elect him two years later.

Yeah but once he is gone - GOP pickup

[nini2287]

For once, I agree with BOTH Keystone Phil and Flyers

[Jacobtm]

NY 18, Nita Lowey (D).

She's totally safe. I don't even know if she has a challenger. It's not that she's a great member of congress, it's just the D next to her name. She could easily lose should a well financed Democratic challenger come up in the primaries at any time. But that probably won't happen.

She was actually going to run for the Senate seat that Clinton got in '00, before Clinton decided to run. When Schumer or Clinton leaves the senate, she'll probably be up for the race again.

[Smash255]

NY 18, Nita Lowey (D).

She's totally safe. I don't even know if she has a challenger. It's not that she's a great member of congress, it's just the D next to her name. She could easily lose should a well financed Democratic challenger come up in the primaries at any time. But that probably won't happen.

She was actually going to run for the Senate seat that Clinton got in '00, before Clinton decided to run. When Schumer or Clinton leaves the senate, she'll probably be up for the race again.

Dems have a 13 point rgistration addvantage, and considering how Independents break in suburban NY & how Reps are more likley to cross party lines than Dems its more of a 20 point adv.  In a yar where many of the NYC burbs swung back due to 9/11, Kerry won the district by more than 15 points.  Supposidly her 04 oppoenent Hoffman  is running again (Lowry won with a tad shy of 70% in 04), though I don't see him listed at open secrets for fundraising ehre Lowry has over $1 million in cash on hand.  Lowry is about as safe as Gary Ackerman and the NY City Democrats.

[Republican Michigander]

MI-8 - Safe for Rogers, leans GOP in an open seat.

Democrat Stronghold Ingham County is slightly outvoted by Livingston County, with heavily GOP areas of Clinton and Oakland County, and slightly GOP leaning Shiawassee County (1/2 of it) providing a cushion.

[Boris]

IL-06

Incumbent Republican Henry Hyde is retiring, and  Peter Roskam has been nominated by the GOP to replace him. The Democrats have nominated Iraqi War Veteran Tammy Duckworth. While I strongly support Duckworth, Roskam has the slight advantage and will probably win the election by 7-10 percentage points.

[Mike in Maryland]

Maryland-8

This used to be a competitive district in many elections, but political and population trends made it solidly Democratic, and redistricting more so.

For sixteen years (1986-2002) it elected a personally popular liberal Republican, Connie Morella.  But redistricting made it so Democratic that even she couldn't hold it, and she lost to Chris Van Hollen. 

[ottermax]

Washington 8

Dave Reichert could win reelection easily if he works hard at it. My district voted for Kerry, but has been consistently republican for ever. Maybe this year it will change, but Darcy Burner will need some help.

[© tweed]

NY-02 Steve Israel

I voted option one although that isn't entirely accurate; he's seemingly very popular and wins 65-35% every time but doesn't rack up 80% or anything near that.  The demographics of the district presently don't let him.

[MasterJedi]

Option 2, only an extreme scandal will make someone defeat Paul Ryan (WI-1).

[WMS]

In-between Option 4 and Option 5, voted for 5 but you could make a case either way. NM-1 refuses to be quiet, election after election. The one landslide here in the past 20 years or so - 1994, Steven Schiff over Peter Zollinger, 74-26 - was due to, well, I've met Zollinger, and he could alienate people a mile away with his personality.

[Flying Dog]

MI-05. Dale Killdee (D)

He'll have this seat forever until he retires. The liberal strongholds of Saginaw and Flint is all he needs to win. If open then it favors dem

[Smash255]

NY-02 Steve Israel

I voted option one although that isn't entirely accurate; he's seemingly very popular and wins 65-35% every time but doesn't rack up 80% or anything near that.  The demographics of the district presently don't let him.

He might not get 80%, but this year I wouldn't be suprised if Israel racks up 70-75%

[Bdub]

Option 1.  Florida's 19th is heavily in favor of the Democrats.  I have a hard time believing Robert Wexler could ever be voted out.