How "Safe" is your congressional district?

[auburntiger]

I live in TN-9, where Harold ford, Jr. represented for ten years, and then his father since 1974. It's been a black distric for 32 years, and all of a sudden, Steve Cohen, a white Memphis mid-towner and state rep, somehow got the nomination. I'm still confused how that happened, but I guess the four black candidates all split the vote allwoing Cohen to take it.

I don't think it'll be a close race at all for Cohen and Mark White, but it'll be alot closer than it's been ina LONG TIME. Cohen supports gay marraige, which IS NOT popular in TN (Mark White could point that out.) He also suupports affirmative action, the lottery, and other uber liberal causes. He'd be a perfect candidate for CA or MA. However, Memphis city is probably 80% Dem. so Cohen unfortunately should have no probelm.

I will vote Mark White hands down!!!

[Colin]

Option 3.

PA-4 is mostly safely Republican, especially with Hart in the seat, but I would not doubt the possibility that a major landslide, or some gerrymandering, could make the district more competitive. Hart won with something like 63% in 2004 and with 58% in 2002 IIRC so its possible.

[Galactic Overlord]

LA-01: Option One.  My district includes the suburbs sandwiched between Lake Ponchatrain and the Mississippi River, plus the three parishes above the lake, one of which, St. Tammany, is fast-growing and perhaps the most Republican in the state. Bush also carried this district with 71%.  There is no solid consitutency at all for a Democrat to run here.

[7,052,770]

my November choices:

Chip Pickering (R, incumbent)
Jim Giles (open white supremacist)

I'll be voting for Pickering along with 80% of my district.  Ironically most of Gile's votes will come from black people who don't want to vote Republican and didn't research the other guy.

[jerusalemcar5]

NY-25. James Walsh. Option 3.

He's pretty safe, but we did vote for Kerry and are trending left.  He has been our rep since first elected in 1988 and has had minimal opposition in recent years (no Democrat even ran in 2004).  I can see my district being much more competitive after Walsh leaves office.  The district is rural, suburban, and urban.

Rural-Wayne County and a couple towns in Onondaga County, very Republican

Suburban-Rochester's east suburbs and all of Syracuse's suburbs, lean Republican but libertarian Republican and have been voting more Democratic recently

Urban-Syracuse, solid Democratic

Democratic gains in the suburban areas will be integral.

[Dave from Michigan]

My District is MI 11  represented by republican Thaddeus McCotter

The district is safe for McCotter,  and almost as safe for any other republican.  It would take a landslide for it to go democratic.  Th seat is part of Wayne and Oakland counties suburban and a little rural.  the Wayne part is lean republican and Oakland soild republican

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Option 1.5  SC-2.  The democrats would have to nominate a good candidate in addition to having Joe Wilson suffer a scandal.  Before 2002 it would have been option 1, but the Assembly moved the Republicans around in hopes of picking up SC-5 from John Spratt.  If the GOP had put up a decent candidate in either 2002 or 2004, they might have been able to do so, but they were content to wait for what they considered low-hanging fruit to fall their way. This year they have a quality candidate for a change, but given the national mood, I think Spratt will be relected there this year as well.

[??????????]

Option 1. What's a Democrat?

[Alcon]

Option 1. What's a Democrat?

What part of Osceola County is in your district anyway?  It even voted against Putnam, heavily.

[??????????]

Option 1. What's a Democrat?

What part of Osceola County is in your district anyway?  It even voted against Putnam, heavily.

None of it. I live right under the I-4 shield on this map :

[Alcon]

Oh, you're in the 9th, not the 12th.   My bad.

The 9th isn't al that Repbublican, even if the incumbent is very popular.

[Moooooo]

MD-2 is Safe.

Ruppersberger (D) is a very personable fellow.  He is also fairly moderate.  Thats probably why almost everyone likes him.  He will probably win with 65-70% of the vote in a district where Kerry only received 54%.

[??????????]

Oh, you're in the 9th, not the 12th.   My bad.

The 9th isn't al that Repbublican, even if the incumbent is very popular.

I'm not sure about the western part but around here in the eastern district you never ever see signs for any democratic candidates.

[Alcon]

Oh, you're in the 9th, not the 12th.   My bad.

The 9th isn't al that Repbublican, even if the incumbent is very popular.

I'm not sure about the western part but around here in the eastern district you never ever see signs for any democratic candidates.

Bush didn't even win by 10 points in 2000.  Not sure about 2004.

[socaldem]

Oh, you're in the 9th, not the 12th.   My bad.

The 9th isn't al that Repbublican, even if the incumbent is very popular.

I'm not sure about the western part but around here in the eastern district you never ever see signs for any democratic candidates.

Actually, FL-09 is supposed to be semi-competitive this year with "little" Gus Bilirakis likely to beat ex-Hillsborough county comissioner Phyllis Busansky, who, by the way, appears to be ancient.  But in Florida, that's probably something that helps you win cred with voters...

[??????????]

Oh, you're in the 9th, not the 12th.   My bad.

The 9th isn't al that Repbublican, even if the incumbent is very popular.

I'm not sure about the western part but around here in the eastern district you never ever see signs for any democratic candidates.

Actually, FL-09 is supposed to be semi-competitive this year with "little" Gus Bilirakis likely to beat ex-Hillsborough county comissioner Phyllis Busansky, who, by the way, appears to be ancient.  But in Florida, that's probably something that helps you win cred with voters...

Yes, daddys little boy is running for congress now...sigh.

[Deano963]

I picked the second option. OH-09 (repressented by Dem Marcy Kaptur for 12 terms) is pretty safe Democrat. We chew up republicans and spit them out around here.

[ill ind]

  I voted #1
  Illinois #14 - like most of the other districts in the state drawn out by Hastert and Lipinski (the 1st) to protect the incumbents regardless of party.  In exchange for giving Hastert some say on the congressional redistricting and giving up one of their members, the Dems pretty much got their way on the state senate and assembly districts.

Ill Ind

[nclib]

Option 3.

NC-4 has only gone Republican once in the past 20 years (1994), when David Price lost an extremely close race in a big Republican year. Price was easily voted back in in 1996.

[phk]

CA-19. Inbetween 1 and 2.

[DownWithTheLeft]

NJ-9 Probably 2

Rothman usually gets just over 60% of the vote, no chance of knocking him off this year, but an open race could swing it.  The problem is they make my poor little suburban town that barely voted for Kerry vote w/parts of Passic and Newark I believe.  Rothman is an awful rep, but not even the Iraq War veteran we have this year seems to be able to put a dent in him.

[Padfoot]

Up until last year OH-15 was fairly safe for Deb Pryce.  Its hard to judge what 2008 will be like since the presidential race throws a whole new spin on things.  In 2004 Bush squeaked by in OH-15 with a 50-49 win while Pryce won by a 20 point spread in a 60-40 victory.  I think it is more than likely that the Democratic presidential nominee will carry this district in 2008 but the question is how this will affect Pryce.

[muon2]

In IL the wild card in many districts will be Obama. If he's on the Nov ticket it may affect districts that otherwise would be safe. If he's not, and there are negative feelings from a primary, it could keep some voters at home. In this state its way too early to judge many of the House races.

[AndrewTX]

It's in the middle. The CT-4 is not safe right now, but Chris might pull off a good election in 2008 depending on the climate in that year.

[Verily]

#2. NJ-09 is not competitive, particular with its current popular Democratic incumbent, but a scandal-ridden Democrat running in an open race might have some difficulty.