How "Safe" is your congressional district?

[Cylon Candidate]

CA-15 is a very liberal district (Consists of parts of San Jose and its suburbs) and will probably elect Mike Honda until he retires or dies.  However, as late as 1998, the district elected a moderate Republican (Tom Campbell), so its not 100% safe after Honda leaves. 

[Flying Dog]

Kildees opposition got 25% this time around, nuff said.
If he retires then the person who wins the dem nomination will win the general.

[DownWithTheLeft]

#2. NJ-09 is not competitive, particular with its current popular Democratic incumbent, but a scandal-ridden Democrat running in an open race might have some difficulty.

Ah, very similar to my analysis

[Gabu]

It shouldn't be very safe at all, but due to extreme vote splitting among the Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens, the conservative candidate has won for the last four elections with limited competition.

I'm still holding out hope of one day being represented by someone other than a Conservative MP, though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I live in a district consisting of Somerville, Cambridge, and parts of Boston, Massachusetts.  I don't think it's possible for a Democrat to pull in under 80% here with the way the district is drawn.  It just may be the most reliably liberal in the state.

Then again, I could have just stopped when I said I lived in Massachusetts.  After all, we've already proved that we don't care if our politicos are caught in bed with a live boy... because it's happened already.  Twice!

[InsideTheBeltway]

MD-04: Safer for the Democrats than any other distrct in Maryland-78% for Kerry and Wynn routinely wins 75%-85%.

The expected primary between Wynn and Donna Edwards in 08 should be interesting, though.

[The Dowager Mod]

Pretty safe.

[Jake]

Carney probably fits between the 2nd and 3rd from last categories. He's favored as an incumbent, but not by much.

[SPC]

Chris Cox won all his contests with over 60% of the vote, but in the special election of 2005, John Campbell beat Steve Young and Jim Gilchrist 46-26-25. In 2006, he won 60-37-3, against Steve Young and Bruce Cohen. That said, I choose option 3.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz has it for as long as she wants it (until 2010) because she has an absolutely amazing campaign team. They did nothing in 2006 and brought in 66%. If the year was "normal" for the GOP, she would still break 60%. People also see her as being active enough in DC and back in the district so she doesn't have problems.

When she goes, her likely replacement as the Dem nominee will also have an easy time winning. If the GOP has control of the state legislature in 2011, watch for PA 13 to hit the chopping block.

[Smash255]

King won by more than I thought he would last year, (11.6) but he spent pretty much everything he had, and his opponent Mejias got into the race late (end of May).

Without the large bank roll from previous elections, without the clout from being a Chairman, and with the changing dynamics I think King will have fights for some time to come.  Presidential years especially, as it will bring higher turnout and the district would pretty much be Dem in a Presidential year (Rudy being the possible exception) .  Suozzi would knock him out if he were to run, Rice would have a deent chance as well, Mejias could win i he were to run again (especially with more time to run. 

If he is still around by 2012 and the Dems gain the state Senate he is in quite a bit of trouble.  redistricting helped him last time, but with ultra safe Dem seats  on either side of him with Israel in NY-2 and McCarthy in NY-4 (McCarthy just won by over 30, Israel won by almost 50) the district would likely become quite a bit more Dem.  Better yet, put him in a district with McCarthy or Israel (more likely him than her if they go this route due to population & the relative proximity between their home areas) and he is toast.

Seat would be very likely to go Dem if King were to retire.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, you never know. In the 1990s, one would assume that California State Assembly district 16 was an option 1 district. Nope. Somehow the Democratic nominee lost a race here:

http://www.joincalifornia.com/election/1999-03-30

[Verily]

To whom, a Green?

[Bacon King]

Only something of Foley-esque proportions would take GA-7 away from the Republicans.

[SomeLawStudent]

So, how safe is your congressional district?  Would the incumbent have to be caught in bed with a dead woman or live boy to get the boot, or do you have a tight contest every time around...

Chris Shays District.  Very competitive, but it's fairly liberal so being caught with a live boy probably wouldn't get him the boot.  If he keeps supporting the war in Iraq he will though.

[adam]

TX-10, Lloyd Doggett

I see no reason as to why he wouldn't be considered "safe".

[they don't love you like i love you]

Doggett no longer represents TX-10

[Хahar 🤔]

CA-15 is a very liberal district (Consists of parts of San Jose and its suburbs) and will probably elect Mike Honda until he retires or dies.  However, as late as 1998, the district elected a moderate Republican (Tom Campbell), so its not 100% safe after Honda leaves. 

It should stay D, I think. There's no shortage of Democrats around here.

[Cylon Candidate]

CA-15 is a very liberal district (Consists of parts of San Jose and its suburbs) and will probably elect Mike Honda until he retires or dies.  However, as late as 1998, the district elected a moderate Republican (Tom Campbell), so its not 100% safe after Honda leaves. 

It should stay D, I think. There's no shortage of Democrats around here.

Yeah.  Maybe if Campbell ran again he could make it competitive, but I'm not sure anyone remembers him.  Besides, he looks like he's thinking of running for governor.

Steve Poizner, if for some reason he ran (which he wouldn't) could make this an interesting race.  He did very well when he ran against Ira Ruskin in 2004, and has buckets of money.  Wouldn't stand a chance against Honda, but in an open seat race with a nasty Democratic primary I can see him making it close. Of course, he won't ever run here so it doesn't matter.

If for some reason Honda retired or was appointed Secretary of Education,  who do you see as Democratic candidates?  I'm thinking maybe Ruskin if he decided to carpetbag a little, Joe Simitian, and former San Jose Vice Mayor Cindy Chavez. 

[memphis]

I voted option 1 in the poll back when this thread was fresh, but in light of recent developments in LA-2, I've softened my position. I must now concede that if a) a massive natural disaster dislocates many blacks AND the FBI finds $90,000 in the incumbent's freezer AND the Congressional election is postponed until after the presidental so that turnout is absurdly low, the GOP may have an off-chance at the seat.

[Ronnie]

CA 48 -- solid for Campbell

Also, to add in my old CD:

CA 30 -- As safe as they get (Waxman)

[they don't love you like i love you]

I voted option 4 initially. That's MN-01. MN-05 is option 1.

[Eraserhead]

NY-20

It appears to be pretty safe now but if the Republicans have a good year in 2010 for some reason, it could come back into play.

[ill ind]

  I voted #1 back in 2006 when Denny Hastert was my Rep.  Lo and behold I was wrong and Bill foster defeated GOP baggage challenged self-financing frequent candidate Jim Oberweis--twice.

Ill Ind

[Hash]

Safe Liberal, but much less than before when the Liberals stacked up huge margins over the Tory paper candidate. The Conservatives and NDP (and Greens, since 2004) have steadily eaten into that Liberal margin, but remains a double-digit margin and we were in 2008 one of the rare constituencies where the Liberal vote increased over 2006, despite a stronger-than-usual Conservative candidate. Main reason is because Belanger was wise enough to make the local campaign on the controversial Kettle Island bridge project (which is unpopular in Ontario and very popular in Quebec). Could swing in a 1984-like Tory landslide.

Saint-Malo has never elected a non-centrist/Gaullist since its in existence, but the UMP margin has shrunk a significant amount in a few years. (It did have a PS mayor from the 1977 pink wave to 1983, when a lot of the '77 Socialists got kicked out) Couanau remains safe, probably as long as he wants to stay there, but his majorities are getting narrower, with the centrists often within striking distance of runoff access. IIRC, he got 57 in 2007, but 53 in the 2008 municipal runoff with the MoDem taking 10%. Saint-Malo-Nord (the wealthier areas, eg Parame, Rotheneuf and Intra-Muros) are very safe UMP, but Saint-Malo-Sud (eg Saint-Servan, Saint-Jouan commune) voted against Couanau in 2007 and has a PS councillor departmentally. The local PS is dominated by Jacky Le Menn, a failed politician (now a Senator, sadly, with the crook Edmond Herve) and Isabelle Thomas, another failed politician.