Survey USA: Brown(D) expands lead over DeWine(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Survey USA on 2006-08-07

Summary: D: 49%, R: 41%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sam Spade]

The demographics of the poll look slightly Democratic, still, two out of three polls showing a Brown lead outside of MOE (even in the middle of summer), makes me put Ohio in Lean Dem.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think barring something bad happening, I think this is Brown's to lose.

[Sam Spade]

I think barring something bad happening, I think this is Brown's to lose.

That is, frankly, going way too far. 

Midterm races really don't start until Labor Day and rating some contest without one party having a giant lead (20% or more in my view) a race to lose is simply not accurate.

[Sarnstrom]

The conservative base won't show up in this election and Brown will win riding Strickland's coattails.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine is a weak incumbant and will limp to election. He will not be a strong candidate going into election day.

[TheresNoMoney]

Brown is a great congressman.

[Eraserhead]

Brown rules and he is kicking Dewine's butt. Cool.

[ian]

All the Ohio Senate polls are too inconsistent to believe.  On the other hand, my love affair with Rasmussen has ended and started anew in the form of Survey USA, so I guess I'll go with this result for now.

[Kevin]

There is what I feel is an anti incumbent feeling that is going to bring alot of both Republicans and Democrats down.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems will net gain 4 seats with OH. No more no less.

[Downwinder]

More excellent news from Ohio.

[Tender Branson]

The Dems will net gain 4 seats with OH. No more no less.

Do you think McCaskill won´t make it ? MT, MO, OH, PA, RI. I don´t know how the CT Race evolves, but for me it´s a gain of 5 for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She is trailing in all of the Zogby polls.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

[Alcon]

She is trailing in all of the Zogby polls.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

I think Zogby's (cough, cough) Missouri sample has always been a bit right-leaning, like their Tennessee sample has always been unusually left-leaning in Interactive.

[Tender Branson]

She is trailing in all of the Zogby polls.

I´m optimistic and say the next Zogby poll has her ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will not be so sure on the next one, he has been consistant on MO. And if you look at Talent's approval ratings it is at 49% right where Zogby has Talent 49-45%.

[Eraserhead]

She is trailing in all of the Zogby polls.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

I think Zogby's (cough, cough) Missouri sample has always been a bit right-leaning, like their Tennessee sample has always been unusually left-leaning in Interactive.

Why are we even arguing about Zogby? It's Zogby! He takes his samples from Mars.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, and most media polls had the same margin that he had in 2004, 269 all tie. MO is much more conserv than OH. And you say don't listen to Zogby, Congressional Quarterly got MO as lean republican. They don't have it as tossup or no clear favorite yet. So, I think he was accurate in his assessment. And we still haven't heard from M-D on the polls. So, I wouldn't just yet put MO in the Democratic column.

You don't trust me on MO leaning republican take a look for yourself on CQ they lean it republican not tossup:http://www.cqpolitics.com/risk_rating_senate.html#republicans

[opebo]

Yea, and most media polls had the same margin that he had in 2004, 269 all tie. MO is much more conserv than OH. And you say don't listen to Zogby, Congressional Quarterly got MO as lean republican. They don't have it as tossup or no clear favorite yet. So, I think he was accurate in his assessment. And we still haven't heard from M-D on the polls. So, I wouldn't just yet put MO in the Democratic column.

You don't trust me on MO leaning republican take a look for yourself on CQ they lean it republican not tossup:http://www.cqpolitics.com/risk_rating_senate.html#republicans

While Missouri is more right-leaning overall than Ohio, and in any case is not moving left like that state, the key here is its profound fickleness.  The state is made up of a lot of rather unthinking, reactive, simpleminded voters, who do not really understand things like ideology.  They simply vote based on a visceral reaction to conditions, and they don't like the conditions now one bit - high gas prices and the bad economy.  Of course this displeasure is more focused on Bush than Talent, but it is what is giving McGaskill her very decent chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying that OH and MO are winnable states, but the dems don't have it their column yet. We will have to wait until there is no clear favorite to put either one in the Dem column, on a definate level, not just on our maps.