Rasmussen: Burns (R) and Tester (D) tied now

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Montana Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-08-10

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Interesting, interesting ... I thought the comment about the firefighters would hurt Burns. Another surprising fact: the 6% undecideds - with 3 months to go.

[Alcon]

Burns is an idiot, but the state of Montana might be Republican enough to allow him to win this thing.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I don't think Burns will win it.  In fact I dispute this poll, Burns' comments and actions are clearly hurting him and in this year he will lose.  Tester is a solid candidate and has local credibility. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Burns narrowly won against Schweizer so he might narrowly beat Tester. Both were are superior candidates.  If Burns end up winning this, because McCaskill trails in the latest Zogby polls will bring the Dem total to picking up three seats not 4 or 5 seats.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The important point about Burns' victory in 2000 was how narrow it was considering GOP candidates all performed strongly in Montana that year.  The state voted for George W. Bush and elected a Republican House member and Governor.  Considering this, Burns underperformed.  I think that Montana and Missouri are winnable for the Democrats, and they will win them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is kind of funny that everyone says that Claire is ahead but she is trailing in all the Zogby polls. I think she stands a very good chance of winning. But you got to consider that MO is a very military state and this war in Israel is bound to have an effect on the race. And the fact that MO has trended republican since 2000. And has a republican governor.  This race is a tossup but Tim Saler says that this has a weak republican advantage.

Conrad Burns can win but this race enjoys a weak Democratic advantage.

[nini2287]

Who cares what Zogby polls or what Tim Saler says about a race?  You have to look at the real polls/the race for yourself and quite frankly the Missouri race is a tossup.

For Montana, I never thought that Tester would win by a margin of more than 6 points (although this poll does look like it might be an outlier).  Tester just isn't that strong of a candidate (granted the MT Democratic bench is weak), and I doubt that most Montanans want two Democratic Senators.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that this race is too close to call but the way the state has trended in the past, it enjoys a weak republican advantage.

As far as MT, the race is too close to call at this time, but you are right, Tester is a weaker than expected candidate. It seems just like in the case of CA, the Dems nominated a weak candidate. With Tester and Angelidas.  But I still think that Tester will pull it out. As far as MO, I am not going to predict Claire to win until she gets out of the margin of error like Casey, Chafee, and Brown has done. She is the only one ahead that isn't outside the margin of error.

[Adlai Stevenson]

People on this forum seem to think Zogby is out of line with most of the other pollsters.  Missouri may have trended Republican since 2000 and in 2004 it elected a Republican Governor and Legislature for the first time in eighty years, however, this was when the power of the GOP nation and statewide was at its zenith.  The fallout from Bush and Blunt's unpopularity will be a narrow McCaskill victory.  I maintain she will win, but she will win by a relatively close margin of no more than 3%.

In Montana, the electorate is clearly trending Democrat; in 2004 Kerry cut Bush's margin in the state by 5% and Democrats won victories in the Gubernatorial and Legislative races.  I think this poll is an outlier.  What people generally seem to forget to consider or ignore is that this year is going to be very bad for the GOP.  Normally, both Talent and Burns would enjoy an advantage, had this been 2002 or 2004.  However, this appears to be more and more of a wave election in which people are ready to the Washington establishment - the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Zogby is predicting Brown to win and they don't disagree with that. I am saying that since voters will have to show voter ID cards it may dillute the black turnout in ST. Louis that she desperately need. It is also hard to see where is she going to pick up the 3 points she need to win by outside of KC and St. L. She may very well win, but it will be hard.

[WalterMitty]

Burns is an idiot, but the state of Montana might be Republican enough to allow him to win this thing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am a Claire McCaskill supporter, but Survey USA hasn't done a poll on this race, and it my say something, about what they think. I will wait until Survey USA does a poll on MO and TN before I can tell if they are going to win. Until then I will reserve judgement on the race, and think she will be behind. But I will remain optimistic.

Survey USA is very accurate like Mason-Dixon. They correctly predicted the outcome of the 2004 election and I will reserve judgement on MO, TN, and MT.

[nini2287]

People on this forum seem to think Zogby is out of line with most of the other pollsters.

He is.  I might as well get all of friends on there to take one of his surveys and have us all vote against Orrin Hatch to make the Utah race a tossup.

I maintain she will win, but she will win by a relatively close margin of no more than 3%.

This race will come down to the wire, I expect within 3% either way if not closer.

What people generally seem to forget to consider or ignore is that this year is going to be very bad for the GOP.

The Democrats' numbers right now aren't exactly stellar either.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The Democrats' numbers are far better than the GOP's numbers.  Even a FOX News Poll found them leading 48%-30%.

McCaskill has strength in rural Missouri where she can if not compete then at least come closer than Democratic candidates have done recently.  I also anticipate some amount of 'buyer's remorse' amongst voters.  She lost with 48% in 2004 and the way many Missourians feel about Blunt now will obviously affect how they vote. 

[nini2287]

The Democrats' numbers are far better than the GOP's numbers.  Even a FOX News Poll found them leading 48%-30%.

Generic polls don't mean that much.  I saw one poll recently that Congressional Democrats approval ratings below both Bush and Congressional Republicans.

She lost with 48% in 2004 and the way many Missourians feel about Blunt now will obviously affect how they vote. 

Why?  They may regret not voting for Claire in 2004, but Blunt has nothing to do with this election.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Generic polls don't mean much but I think most people recognise that this could be a potential watershed election like 1946, 1958, 1974, 1986 and 1994. 

The 'buyer's remorse' factor is still a possibility, particularly tied-in with Bush and Blunt's dismal approval ratings in the state.  Since the margin was so close in 2004, there must be a few people in the state who regret the decision they made and want to find a way of punishing the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said before, Survey USA correctly predicted the outcome in 2004 and I will wait for judgement on that respect. But Congressional Quarterely has MO leaning republican. You got to trust them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is an outlier. Tester may not be ahead by that much, but it'd be hard to eimagine that he's not ahead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

btw in saying that Democrats are just as unpopular as Republicans now:

[nini2287]

btw in saying that Democrats are just as unpopular as Republicans now:

What about Congressional Democrats?  I've seen some polls having them with pretty low marks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will have to see when registered voters and likely voters are factored in and registered likely to vote. Right now we are only going by likely voters and like in 2004 they can be misleading. Because all the likely voters had John Kerry ahead and the registered likely to vote had Bush ahead. Right now the only tossups are MT, PA, and RI by Congressional Quarterly. While OH and MO are leaning republican. And TN, AZ, Ne, and VA are leaning toward the safe side.

[AuH2O]

Tester is not in Schweitzer's league. Burns wins narrowly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, but MT was much more republican back then than it is now. And Conrad Burns wasn't scandled ridden. We will see what the next poll and that will see if Tester is losing ground and Burns. It's too early to tell.

Also, MT didn't have a Dem controlled legislature like they do now, and stand a chance to pick up more seats in the House, where they have a Dem contolled house but a Republican speaker. Larry Sabato says that Tester is going to win by 3 points.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Yea, but MT was much more republican back then than it is now. And Conrad Burns wasn't scandled ridden. We will see what the next poll and that will see if Tester is losing ground and Burns. It's too early to tell.