bizarre George Allen "macaca" incident

[Mr. Morden]

I have no idea what to make of this.  According to this article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/14/AR2006081400589.html

there's a 20 year old Webb volunteer of Indian descent who has been trailing Allen with a video camera, and Allen pointed him out at a campaign event, and refered to him as "macaca", though his name is S.R. Sidarth.  The Webb campaign claims that "macaca" is a racial slur:

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""I think he was doing it because he could and I was the person of color there and it was useful for him in inciting his audience," said Sidarth. "I was annoyed he would use my race in a political context."

Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams said the Webb campaign's complaints about the comments are unfounded and he said Allen had "nothing to apologize for" to the young man.

Wadhams said Allen campaign staffers had begun calling Sidarth "mohawk" because of a haircut Wadhams said the Webb staffer has. "Macaca was just a variation of that," Wadhams said.

He said Allen's comment welcoming Sidarth "to America" was not an insult. "Welcome to the real world. Welcome to Virginia. That's all that was," Wadhams said.

Kristian Denny Todd, a Webb spokeswoman, said the campaign wants to know what Allen meant by Macaca.

"We would like Senator Allen to tell us exactly what he means by the comment," Todd said.

Depending on how you spell it, the name Allen gave Sidarth means different things.

If spelled M-a-c-a-c-a, the term refers to a species of monkeys in the Eastern Hemisphere. "Is he saying Sidarth is a monkey?" Todd asked.

The word M-a-k-a-k-a refers to a town in South Africa."
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According to this site:

http://listofethnicslurs.quickseek.com/#M

macaque is a French slur used to describe North Africans.  Allen speaks French, as his mother is French Tunisian, so it's plausible that that's how he was using the word.  Here is the video of Allen making the comments:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G7gq7GQ71c

[Mr. Morden]

Allen is now tanking at Tradesports in the 2008 presidential contest.  Just in the last 24 hours, he's dropped from a 16% to a 12% chance of getting the GOP nomination, taking him from second place to fourth place (now behind McCain, Giuliani, and Romney).  Webb is also on the upswing in the 2006 VA Senate race, though of course Allen is still heavily favored in that.

[Mr. Morden]

It's accurate. Rasmussen just released the poll. Allen leads 47-42.

Indeed.  Here's the link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/virginiaSenate.htm

I'm watching Tradesports to see what happens to the odds on Allen in both the Senate and Presidential race.  The initial "macaca" fallout caused him to drop from 16.0 to 12.0 in the presidential race, but he then rebounded to 13.5.  So far today, he's dropped to 13.0, but that could just be a blip.  I wonder if there's going to be an Allen sell-off, following this poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyway, I wouldn't say this incident alone "torpedoes" his chances of becoming the nominee, but his stock is definitely on the down slope.

Agreed.  People always tend to inflate the long term importance of the latest controversy.  Yes, the "macaca" tape could be damaging, but so could the tape of Bush not knowing the names of world leaders.  He managed to overcome that.  What could save Allen is the fact that "macaca" isn't exactly a well known racial slur.  Even though the fact that Allen speaks French seems to be a strong indication that he knew what he was doing, that's not necessarily going to be clear to the average voter.  If he had used the n word, it would be a different story.

You also have to ask how many '08 primary voters are even going to see this video?  In what forum would they be watching it?  I don't know that any of his '08 GOP rivals would go so far as to include it in a negative campaign ad.  And the media usually doesn't spend too much time on stuff like this unless the candidates themselves are talking about it.