Internals of LA Times poll posted

[The Vorlon]

UPDATED!!!

I emailed the LA Times polling folks, the actual partisan breakout was:

Democrats 38%
Republicans 24%
Other: 38%

They are defending this as a representative sample!



END UPDATE

This poll has more than 12%  14% more Democrats in the national sample than Republicans.

It is worthless, it should be burned.

I do not think I have every seen a sample from a national polling organization this totally %^%#ed up before.

Compared to these guys, CBS Polling is filled with brain surgeons and rocket scientists.

To cite just one example of how screwed up this thing is, in Ohio Kerry leads 46/45 head to head, but has a 3 point lead when you ADD Nader to the Ballot.

One odd detail from the internals the the LA Times failed to notice as a possible reason why Bush was doing well in the states of Misourri and Wisconsisn is that in those states 1 in 4 Gore voters plans to vote for Bush.

People who believe that the media deliberately distorts information for partisan purposes can point to this poll as an example.

There may be an alternate explanation, but at the very least they should print a retraction and explain to their readers that this poll (kindest possible interpretation) is a freak sample and should be ignored.

[MODU]

May I borrow your analysis for the Zogby site?  You say things so much more clearly than I do.

[The Vorlon]

May I borrow your analysis for the Zogby site?  You say things so much more clearly than I do.

Go ahead..

I hereby revoke any and all copyright...

[ilikeverin]

With the Rasmussen & Zogby weights, this is still pretty good news for Kerry

Even if you can't trust it (what was the one firm/company/whatever you said could poll LA decently, again?)

[The Vorlon]

With the Rasmussen & Zogby weights, this is still pretty good news for Kerry

Even if you can't trust it (what was the one firm/company/whatever you said could poll LA decently, again?)

Vern Kennedy... He did poll of Louisiana - it is in the polling section/ Bush +6 if I recall.

[MODU]

Thanks man.  Still gave you credit.  

[The Vorlon]

Thanks man.  Still gave you credit.  

Zogby has a forum...? that would be scary...

[© tweed]

Zogby has a forum...? that would be scary...

Not only does Zogby have a forum, John Engle posts on it.  Or at least he used to.

[JohnFKennedy]

Zogby has a forum...? that would be scary...

Not only does Zogby have a forum, John Engle posts on it.  Or at least he used to.

THE John Engle? OUR John Engle? "I hate gay people but I pray for them" John?

LOL.

[The Vorlon]

Zogby has a forum...? that would be scary...

Not only does Zogby have a forum, John Engle posts on it.  Or at least he used to.

THE John Engle? OUR John Engle? "I hate gay people but I pray for them" John?

LOL.

I hate incompetent pollsters, but I pray for them

[© tweed]

Yes, our John Engle.

[Storebought]

What is especially infuriating about published lies like this--this deception doesn't merit the word 'poll--is the utter seriousness that most news organizations have taken it.

MSN is already blaring it across its politics banner. It's now Gospel Truth, in spite of any justifiable criticism it faces.

[agcatter]

Ok, so which is it methodology or bias?

I guess both with their bias seemingly driving their "methodology".  Republicans only making up 24%!  That's almost unbelievable to me that they would do that and then tell you with a straight face that it is a representative sample.  Even worse that they'd publish such garbage.  It seems very much to fit an agenda.  The same agenda that drove their numbers in the California recall.  

I just can't see any other reason for them to have done  such a thing.

[CARLHAYDEN]

UPDATED!!!

I emailed the LA Times polling folks, the actual partisan breakout was:

Democrats 38%
Republicans 24%
Other: 38%

They are defending this as a representative sample!

END UPDATE


This poll has more than 12%  14% more Democrats in the national sample than Republicans.

It is worthless, it should be burned.

I do not think I have every seen a sample from a national polling organization this totally %^%#ed up before.

Compared to these guys, CBS Polling is filled with brain surgeons and rocket scientists.

To cite just one example of how screwed up this thing is, in Ohio Kerry leads 46/45 head to head, but has a 3 point lead when you ADD Nader to the Ballot.

One odd detail from the internals the the LA Times failed to notice as a possible reason why Bush was doing well in the states of Misourri and Wisconsisn is that in those states 1 in 4 Gore voters plans to vote for Bush.

People who believe that the media deliberately distorts information for partisan purposes can point to this poll as an example.

There may be an alternate explanation, but at the very least they should print a retraction and explain to their readers that this poll (kindest possible interpretation) is a freak sample and should be ignored.

I think I posted in another thread on the same subject that the LA Times poll has a history of favoring Democrats.

[agcatter]

Yeah, but this thing is beyond anything I've even seen the LA Times come up with.  It's nuts.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You should have seen the LA Times reporting on the early stages of the Gubenatorial Recall last year!

[© tweed]

You should have seen the LA Times reporting on the early stages of the Gubenatorial Recall last year!

Bustamante 35% Schwarzennegger 22%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the posting.

BTW, wondered about your screen name.


I alwyas liked ole G.W. Plunkett.

What was your opinion of him and the book written of his dissertations from the boot black stand?

[12th Doctor]

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  CNN radio just quoted this poll as though it were legit.

"Despite the current feelings surounding the Reagan funeral, President Bush appears to have lost major ground to Sen. John Kerry in the latest LA Times Poll...."

HA  What a joke.

[Blue Rectangle]

From Brit Hume at Fox News

Forgotten Factor

A new Los Angeles Times poll says John Kerry leading President Bush among registered voters nationwide by 7 percent, 51-44. In a front page article The Times attributes his lead to concerns about the country's direction and doubts about President Bush's policies, but nowhere does The Times mention that their poll surveyed 13 percent more Democrats than Republicans.

Times pollster Susan Pinkus stands by the results, says that factoring in party affiliation in a national poll, "makes no sense."

I love that.  "makes no sense"

[© tweed]

Thanks for the posting.

BTW, wondered about your screen name.


I alwyas liked ole G.W. Plunkett.

What was your opinion of him and the book written of his dissertations from the boot black stand?

Who's he talking to?

[The Vorlon]

From Brit Hume at Fox News

Forgotten Factor

A new Los Angeles Times poll says John Kerry leading President Bush among registered voters nationwide by 7 percent, 51-44. In a front page article The Times attributes his lead to concerns about the country's direction and doubts about President Bush's policies, but nowhere does The Times mention that their poll surveyed 13 percent more Democrats than Republicans.

Times pollster Susan Pinkus stands by the results, says that factoring in party affiliation in a national poll, "makes no sense."

I love that.  "makes no sense"

I don't know if I should laugh or cry..

Nice post, & thanks for the link.

[agcatter]

I read something along the lines that she defended the 13 or 14 point party gap by referring to a recent ABC poll which surveyed Dems over Republicans 37 - 27.  I guess her defense was that other polls had done the same thing.  Seems pretty weak.

The poll accomplished the designed purpose however.  It was picked up by the mainstream press as "absolute proof" that Bush was fading vs Kerry.

I hate the LA Times.  I hate it more when they get away with a scam like this.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the posting.

BTW, wondered about your screen name.


I alwyas liked ole G.W. Plunkett.

What was your opinion of him and the book written of his dissertations from the boot black stand?

Who's he talking to?

I addressed my posting to you, Boss Tweed.

Since Boss Tweed and Plunkett were both members of Tammany in the same century, though you might have some insight.