Rasmussen: Webb(D) within 5 pts of Allen(R)
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  Rasmussen: Webb(D) within 5 pts of Allen(R)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Webb(D) within 5 pts of Allen(R)  (Read 1357 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« on: August 17, 2006, 08:47:31 PM »
« edited: August 25, 2006, 11:12:29 PM by overton »

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-08-16

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2006, 08:15:56 AM »

Great news.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2006, 08:55:17 AM »

Temporary bounce after the comment, lead will come back.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2006, 03:06:03 PM »

Alright Webb, maybe you can get some money now.
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Rob
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2006, 03:48:48 PM »

Even if this is a temporary bounce, it shows that Allen is vulnerable. It's still a bit of a longshot, but it's quite winnable.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2006, 03:52:10 PM »

And Bernie Sanders is vulnerable, and so is John Kyl, and so is Debbie Stabenow and hell so is Dick Lugar, doesn't mean there gonna lose.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2006, 04:41:03 PM »

I can't find a single poll that has Sanders under 56% (most have him over 60%)...
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Jake
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2006, 04:47:35 PM »

And Bernie Sanders is vulnerable, and so is John Kyl, and so is Debbie Stabenow and hell so is Dick Lugar, doesn't mean there gonna lose.

Of those, only Kyl is vulnerable. Saying Lugar is vulnerable when he doesn't even have a credible opponent is ridiculous.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2006, 04:50:40 PM »

I'm making a point that theoretically everyone is vulnerable, doesn't mean their going to lose.  And believe me, Tarrant will close the gap in VT.
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Jake
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2006, 04:59:40 PM »

Tarrant's only upside is that he's a self-funder. Even so, he's still badly trailing Sanders in cash on hand, and he's still got a primary to win.

Other than that, challengers don't tend to defeat popular incumbents, especially when they're running in a state that leans quite a bit towards the other side.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2006, 07:59:11 PM »

Of course, it is also entirely possible it is an outlier.  I would not alter spending priorities based on one poll.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2006, 12:44:31 AM »

I know, just a few weeks ago Mason Dixon had Allen up by 16 points. this may be an outlier, like the NV senate race. I see Rasmussen hasn't moved it from solid republican to lean republican.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2006, 01:53:52 AM »

I'm making a point that theoretically everyone is vulnerable, doesn't mean their going to lose.  And believe me, Tarrant will close the gap in VT.

Dude no he isn't! Its not a race and never was a race! Its borderline insane to compare the Vermont race to even the Virginia Senate race. Get over it. Sanders wins by at least 25 points (most likely a lot more than that).
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Downwinder
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2006, 05:13:26 PM »

I know, just a few weeks ago Mason Dixon had Allen up by 16 points. this may be an outlier, like the NV senate race. I see Rasmussen hasn't moved it from solid republican to lean republican.

Rasmussen has moved the VA race to lean republican as of 8/18.
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PrisonerOfHope
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2006, 06:06:58 PM »

Temporary bounce after the comment, lead will come back.
The most damaging aspects of the comment was the ridiculous "mohawk cacaca" justification and the non-apology apology.  This underscores what a lot of other people have been saying about Allen's 'unusual' character.  Right now, only Katherine Harris out does him on the wacko scale.  It won't go away because Allen still hasn't accepted that it exists as a problem.  There is no mention of it on his official web site, nothing in the press releases, nothing turns up in the site search bar.  Compare this with over 700,000 page hits in Google, or the over 1,000,000 hits on his Confedrate flag fetish.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2006, 06:15:58 PM »

To say Webb is ahead now though would be a bit misguided
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PrisonerOfHope
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2006, 07:04:46 PM »

To say Webb is ahead now though would be a bit misguided
I didn't see anyone who had said that.  Unlike the saying though, not all publicity is good publicity.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2006, 03:08:47 AM »

To say Webb is ahead now though would be a bit misguided

No one has suggested that, and while I think this has and will continue to hurt Allen,  to say this race is all of a sudden close or real competitve off one poll is a bit siilly, though it might give pause to give this race a second look.  Now if we see another poll or two showing this race getting close than its worth really taking note of, but just one poll doesn't mean much.  While i believe Allan will still win this by a solid (though not blow out) margin, to even make comparisions to Vermont which Sanders will run away with is a bit over the top to say the least.
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