Senate Elections - 2004

[NHPolitico]

yeah I already know about that one.  In fact I talk directly with Mr Sabato quite regularly and he has even taken some graphics I had for his websites.

no problem

I was more interested for the house races as they aren't as well known.

Larry J. Sabato has his nifty fifty.  His whole crystal ball is here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Now we're even.

I know what you mean. He's oddly easy to reach. I like to imagine I'm special because I correspond via email with him, but I know (and knew before your post) that I wasn't. He just must have no life to answer his email from folks like us.

[NHPolitico]

Is that guy from Frazier going to Run for senate?

Kelsey does seem serious about politics. He came out of the closet after Bush won the Florida battle. Kelsey gave $100K to the inauguration and started showing up in public at Bush public events-- hosting stuff that Bush was attending and such. He's been on Hannity and Colmes several times, too. I think he could handle himself very well in politics.  Like Arnold and Reagan, when you know how to work the media, you can be quite effective.

I heard Richard Dreyfuss is thinking of public office.

[NHPolitico]

Is that guy from Frazier going to Run for senate?

I'd say the whole topic of celebrities as politicos is interesting.  

One guy I always thought would run (and he'd run as a Republican) is Joe Clark from "Lean on Me" fame. I think New Jersey's fear of the "R" after your name kept him from it. His daughter 4-time olympian Joetta Clark Diggs has made it known that public office is of interest to her. Christie Whitman appointed her to the New Jersey Sports and Exhibition Authority.   She's making good money as a motivational speaker and is active in charities for children.

Another is John Elway who strongly looked at going to Congress in 2000. He ended up going into business opportunities, but I'm sure he still is interested. Another QB Steve Young may run, too. His agent has said he'd run from California, though, so Kelsey may have competition!

An up-and-comer in both celebrity and politics for the GOP is Redskins WR Patrick Johnson. He's an intern for J. C. Watts at GOPAC in his spare time.

 

[NHPolitico]

first daschle had one challenger ( thune) now he has another ( in the primary!) not that this guy has much of a chance, but still news.

Editor plans run as Democrat

National attention may be focused on a race between Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and former Rep. John Thune, but both U.S. Senate candidates might have to clear primary hurdles to win their parties' nomination.

Tim Giago, an Oglala Lakota and editor/publisher of the Lakota Journal newspaper in Rapid City and the Pueblo Journal in Albuquerque, N.M., said Friday that he will seek the Democratic nomination against Daschle.

Last month, Lakota Media Inc., owner of both publications, was sold to the Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribe.

"My basic reason for running is that for the past 50 years, the Indian vote on the Indian reservations has been taken for granted in this state," said Giago, 69.

Daschle, 56, welcomed Giago to the political arena and spoke positively about him.

"I have known Tim for more than 20 years and have respect for him as a community leader and a businessman," Daschle said Friday. "I have applauded his efforts to encourage reconciliation in South Dakota."

Daschle said Giago was one of the leaders in encouraging the Gathering and Healing of Nations Conference sponsored by Daschle and Gov. Mike Rounds.

"Using my position in the Senate to continue working to improve the quality of life in Indian Country is one of the primary reasons that I am running for re-election," Daschle said in a statement.

Thune, 43, a Republican, announced Monday that he will challenge Daschle. But Bert Tollefson, a Watertown native who has been living in Arizona, said late last year that he will run in the Republican primary.

Tollefson, 73, also ran in the Republican House primary in 2002, getting 1 percent of the vote. He served as assistant to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ezra Taft Benson in the Eisenhower administration, as assistant administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development in the State Department and as U.S. Aid Mission director in Nairobi, Kenya.

If Giago and Tollefson get on the ballot, the Senate primaries would be June 1.

Giago said a recent speech by Rounds defined what he sees as a problem in the state.

"We have a mind-set to see one point of view," Giago said. "Governor Rounds said South Dakota has only 3 percent unemployment, but he totally disregarded the Indian reservations, with some having as high as 75 percent unemployment."

Daschle and Sen. Tim Johnson have taken the Native American vote for granted, he said.

"There are some things we can do together as people," Giago said, "and if I can talk about where we come from as a people, that is an important step."

Giago said he is not running just for the fun of it. He said he intends to beat Daschle and is prepared to debate him.

"Senator Daschle has lost a lot of luster in my mind," Giago said. "So many things could have been done to bring things to Rosebud and Pine Ridge (reservations). Why not economic development?"

He cited an unsuccessful effort in Kyle to build a mall.

"Harvey White Woman has been trying for years to get it. He has got the people interested, but he can't do a simple thing to get it built," Giago said. "They (the congressional delegation) have no good reason why it hasn't been built."

Giago said a letter he wrote challenging state government on reconciliation got the ball rolling on that venture of hope in the mid-1980s.

"Reconciliation died with (Gov.) George Mickelson," Giago said. "Getting reconciliation on track would again create an awareness of the problem and a discussion of solutions."

A Giago candidacy would be good for the state, said Leonard Eller of Flandreau, chairman of the Santee Sioux Tribe.

"Not only would he help Native Americans, he would help everyone," Eller said. "I don't know much about him politically, but he has a lot of experience dealing with the public, and that would be helpful."

Herbert Hoover, professor of history at the University of South Dakota, sees it differently.

"Nothing surprises me in what Tim Giago does. I think he realizes he doesn't have a chance in the primary. He is just trying to make a statement," Hoover said. "It is strange with all Daschle does for Native Americans. Giago can't win. A primary could give Daschle a chance to show what kind of clout he has."

If it lowers Indian turnout for Daschle in November, hoo-ray.

[NHPolitico]

well alive Indians may vvote less, but then the dead numbers will rise like last time.

Are you saying the Dems use the obituaries as their voter checklist on Election Day?

[NHPolitico]

Arlen Specter and Howard Dean—Darlings of Big Labor

Press Release

Wednesday, November 12, 2003

ALLENTOWN—What do Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean (D-VT) and Republican Senator Arlen Specter (R-Philadelphia) have in common? Both liberals are being backed by Big Labor in their quests for political office in 2004.

The AFL-CIO’s two largest and most politically potent unions – the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) – have formally endorsed Dean, and they have contributed thousands of dollars to Specter’s campaign to help him stave off a powerful challenge from conservative Congressman Pat Toomey (R-Lehigh).

“For liberal Arlen Specter to share in common with Howard Dean the full-throated support of Big Labor indicates clearly that Congressman Pat Toomey is the better choice for Republicans who support the Bush agenda,” said Toomey campaign Spokesman Joe Sterns.

Specter has also received significant support from other labor unions’ political action committees this election cycle. Toomey, conversely, boasts the backing of the chairman of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), Tom Musser, as well as the Club for the Growth.

I took this from Toomey's homepage. Is there any possibility that Arlen Specter could lose the primary? Pat Toomey seems to be VERY conservative. Could he win PA senat seat with that antilabour stuff?

It would be earth-shattering for Specter to lose. First, polls show he's plenty popular among Republicans to win renomination.  

The moment that John Sununu entered the race, Republicans here said, "Hey, here we go. We can just plug in Sununu and be all set for beating Shaheen in November." Republicans in Pennsylvania aren't looking at Toomey as some super-electable candidate and he's running well-behind Specter, whereas Sununu was competitive the instant he entered the race. He was at 41% as soon as he announced and general election voters chose him as the strongest against Shaheen from the get-go. Once GOP people saw he could raise money, it went neck-and-neck and then he won on the strength of undecideds and undeclareds by double digits.

Toomey couldn't even get to 30% in a December poll and Pennsylvania is a much harder state to boost name ID and support than NH. No serious group of Republicans views Toomey as more electable than Specter-- particularly in a presidential year when Democrats will turnout higher than in an off-year when Santorum won.  Toomey's support is completely impractical and, in the end, a majority of GOP voters will realize that and support Specter.    Toomey is raising money, but not at the proportional clip that Sununu did and Specter's cash advantage is much broader than Smith's was against Sununu.   Sununu was just a a great candidate.  He beat two candidates that outspent him in one year.  Toomey's no Sununu.

[NHPolitico]

The WH and Santorum are both backing Spector.

Seriously backing him--- not like they "did" for Bob Smith. Cheney never came here to help Bob Smith, but he's gone to PA for Specter.  The WH sent Rove for Smith and Card for Sununu.  There's no similar love for Toomey.

[NHPolitico]

Schwarzenegger to Back Jones for Senate    
SAN FRANCISCO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (news - web sites) will endorse former California Secretary of State Bill Jones in his bid to challenge Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, sources close to the governor said.

Jones, a 54-year-old Fresno farmer who spent more than two decades in public life before term limits forced him to step down in 2002, is the best-known candidate in a four-person field vying for the Republican nomination.


Other Republicans in the running are former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin, former Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian.

Jones lost the race for the GOP nomination for governor in 2002 and actively supported Schwarzenegger during the gubernatorial recall campaign that put the actor in office last fall. He also served on Schwarzenegger's transition team.

Boxer, a liberal Democrat seeking her third term, publicly opposed the recall.

Schwarzenegger has hinted he was likely to support Jones, but the timing of the endorsement, expected Friday, surprised some observers, who believed Schwarzenegger would only get involved in the final days before the March 2 primary, if at all.

"We're once again seeing Gov. Schwarzenegger being a different kind of governor by taking a position in a primary — and so shortly after he was elected himself," GOP consultant Arnold Steinberg said.

And Boxer has only raked in $5M-- a paltry sum for a competitive statewide race in California.   With Arnold's endorsement, I'm eager to see Jones' take next reporting period.

[NHPolitico]

good news, Harris NOT running in FL!


SARASOTA, Fla. - U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, who gained international attention for her role in the 2000 presidential recount, will not enter the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, The Associated Press learned Friday.

Harris decided instead to run for re-election, according to a Republican source in Florida close to the situation, speaking on condition of anonymity.

She was scheduled to announce her decision later Friday at a news conference.


The source said Harris was making phone calls to supporters and friends to inform them of her decision.


As Florida secretary of state, Harris oversaw the disputed count that gave George W. Bush a crucial 537-vote victory over Al Gore (news - web sites) in Florida. President Bush (news - web sites)'s political advisers have feared her candidacy would refresh memories of the recount, generating a large turnout from angry Democrats and hurting his chances of carrying the state. Florida's 27 electoral votes are expected to be crucial in the 2004 presidential contest.


Harris has said she's been encouraged to seek retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham's seat, buoyed by favorable polls showing her as the early front-runner. A poll released last month by The Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times found that Harris had the support of 29 percent of GOP voters, followed by former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum with 15 percent, and former U.S. Housing Secretary Mel Martinez with 11 percent. Thirty-eight percent were undecided. The telephone survey of 800 registered voters had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.


Harris has long flirted with a Senate campaign. In July, she likened her chances of getting into the race to three bodies in the solar system aligning in a straight line — a rare astrological phenomenon.


But when Graham announced in November he would not seek re-election, Harris called it a "blip on the radar screen" and reconsidered the campaign.


As the state's chief elections officer, Harris presided over the re-count during the closest election in Florida history, drawing the ire of Democrats nationally and parodies on late night television shows.


Harris said all along that she simply followed the letter of the law, but she became a darling of Republican activists afterward and was elected last year to Congress.


Her fame helped her amass nearly $3 million for her 2002 congressional campaign. Through the end of the September fund-raising period, she had nearly $350,000 on hand, funds that could be transferred to a Senate race.


Democrats have expressed hope that Harris would enter the race, arguing it would enhance fund-raising and focus more attention on the campaign.


"The race won't be the subject of Jay Leno and David Letterman. But I don't think that's going to change one way or the other what we are going to do," said Jeff Garcia, campaign manager for Democratic Senate candidate Betty Castor.


Castor, a former state Education Commissioner from Tampa, is running against U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Lauderhill and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas for the Democratic nomination.

I heard Alcee Hastings endorsed Deutsch.  I wonder how much pull he has with Black Democrat primary voters.  I hope lots.

[NHPolitico]

Excellent - go Mel!!!!

I thought that said, "go Me," the first three times I read that. I looked back a few pages wondering what the hell that self-congratulation was about.

[NHPolitico]

I think Harris would've actually had a very good chance at the Florida Senate seat.  Since she's not running, who's likely to be the nominee?  Martinez?

I agree that she's not that horrible of a candidate. The issue is that Florida is a parity state in party identification (46-D, 46-D, 8-I according to a 2002 poll). How many crossover voters does she get? How many independents?  I think that's a big question mark.  As a point, you can note that Harris won in 2002 with less than 55% and her predecessor had just short of 64% in 2000.

[NHPolitico]

I think Harris would've actually had a very good chance at the Florida Senate seat.  Since she's not running, who's likely to be the nominee?  Martinez?

I think Foley was going to get it and then he dropped out because of his Dad's cancer. Foley has endorsed Mel. However, Connie Mack has endorsed McCollum-- which makes no sense at all to me.  If Connie could be persuaded to change his mind, I think that would knock out McCollum. A few of the other candidates are actually very good statewide candidates and it speaks well of Florida's GOP's bench.

[NHPolitico]

Smith left the party briefly and that killed him.  Sununu is a lot better anyway.  Smith stands no chance in FL, BTW.

John is awesome.

[NHPolitico]

WASHINGTON - Former Sen. Gary Hart likely won't run for the Senate this year, the Democratic Party's top Senate recruiter said Tuesday.

"Gary Hart has made it clear he probably won't run," said Sen. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

In a brief interview with The Denver Post, Corzine said Hart's reservations boiled down to "economics." He did not offer further specifics. Although Hart is a Denver lawyer who travels all over the world, he is not known to be wealthy.

Corzine's comments confirm what Democratic officials have been saying privately for weeks. It would appear to narrow the field of Democrats seeking to oust incumbent Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell to two political newcomers, Brad Freedberg and Mike Miles.

But state Democratic chairman Chris Gates said there are other potential candidates in the wings, although he declined to name them.

"There are other possible candidates," Gates said. "Once Gary makes a decision, there will be a window of time where people will make their decision."

Hart, who represented Colorado in the U.S. Senate for two terms after being elected in 1974, declined to comment through a spokeswoman at his law office. But Gates, who has fielded many media inquiries for Hart, emphasized there is no official decision by Hart.

"If he had decided, he certainly would have told me," Gates said.

Hart had told reporters and party officials he would make a decision by mid- January but missed that deadline and has made no public statements since about the race.

Freedberg, a Denver lawyer, said he has known for two weeks that Hart will not run. He said he made the decision to put $40,000 of his own money into the race after "someone close" to Hart called him and said Hart wouldn't run.

"He's out. It's Mike Miles and Brad Freedberg," Freedberg said. "The field is the same as it had been, but the uncertainty has been removed."

Larry E. Johnson of Boulder has also filed to run.

Miles, a Colorado Springs educator, said he thinks it's too late for anyone else to get into the race.

"I expect once Hart makes a decision, the field will be set," Miles said. "There are already a number of Democrats that are upset it's taken this long for the field to be set."

But Gates said it's still possible for another candidate to get in because Campbell's campaign has been lackluster.

"We are currently running against someone who is not raising money, who is not campaigning," Gates said. "He's made it clear he has no appetite for the political process."

Campbell has angrily denied Gates' claims that he might not run, and his spokeswoman, Cinamon Watson, said Tuesday that Campbell is "running strong all over the state."

"It doesn't matter who his opponent is," Watson said. "He's going to campaign on his record of accomplishment."

[NHPolitico]

Of course, what means more is how Vitter does head-to-head with John (which is probably still a toss-up), but at least Vitter will make the runoff...


A recent poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates Inc. shows Republican David Vitter leading the race for US Senate with his Democratic rivals Chris John and John Kennedy tied for second place. Vitter has 34 percent, John has 16 percent and Kennedy has 15 percent. Democrat Jim Bernhard polled 4 percent, and 31 percent of voters were undecided. The poll of 502 likely voters was conducted from Jan. 22-24. It's margin of error is +/-4.4 percent. The poll was commissioned by the Kennedy Campaign.

[NHPolitico]

Voinovich is going to win big. If he gets under 60% I'd be suprised.

Yep. It's all about taking races off the table. Slim pickings for the Dems.

[NHPolitico]

I agree but a big win for him can't hurt Bush at all in Ohio.  

He's had his differences over deficit reduction, but George is a steady backer of Bush's re-election.  He's like Specter. He's got a solid general election base. He only has to make it through the primaries, and he doesn't have an opponent there this year like Specter. I like George.

[NHPolitico]

2-2-04

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Christopher "Kit" Bond appears to be in a comfortable position against his likely Democratic rival, state Treasurer Nancy Farmer.

Of those polled, 52 percent said they planned to vote for Bond, compared with 35 percent for Farmer. Only 13 percent said they were undecided.

Because Bond's "threshold of support is over 50 percent" and the undecided percentage is so low, Ali said, it could be tough for Farmer to defeat the senator.

Still, only 47 percent of those polled gave Bond a job approval rating of "excellent" or "good," which indicates that some voters might be persuaded to change their minds, Ali said.

Farmer's problem is that many voters don't know who she is. Only 28 percent said they had a "favorable" opinion of her, while 16 percent rated her unfavorable," and more than half - 56 percent - said they had no opinion.

Bond's "favorable" rating was 53 percent, while 38 percent gave him an "unfavorable" rating and only 9 percent had no opinion.

Lesage, for example, backs Bond, "partly because I don't know enough about the other person." She couldn't recall Farmer's name.

[NHPolitico]

Campbell won't see re-election
By The Associated Press

Citing his health, Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado announced today that he will not seek a third term this fall.

"After a great deal of soul searching and reflection I have decided not to seek re-election," Campbell said in a statement. "I feel the time has come to pass that duty on to another and return to my ranch with my family that I love."

Campbell, 70, has faced questions about his health since last year, when he acknowledged undergoing treatments for prostate cancer. Last week, he was examined in a Washington hospital after experiencing mild chest pains that turned out to be heartburn.

[NHPolitico]

Campbell won't see re-election
By The Associated Press

Citing his health, Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado announced today that he will not seek a third term this fall.

"After a great deal of soul searching and reflection I have decided not to seek re-election," Campbell said in a statement. "I feel the time has come to pass that duty on to another and return to my ranch with my family that I love."

Campbell, 70, has faced questions about his health since last year, when he acknowledged undergoing treatments for prostate cancer. Last week, he was examined in a Washington hospital after experiencing mild chest pains that turned out to be heartburn.

The word is that Gov. Bill Owens, a Republican, is considering running for the seat.

If Owens decides too and Campbell endorses the governor, I would have to give the Republican the advantage.

I'm also wondering if Democrat Mark Udall, who decided no to run, may jump back in?

My guess is that Owens has plenty of cash for a Senate run, whereas Udall probably doesn't. It's awfully late in the cycle to start raising money for a statewide campaign in a state that will likely be carried by the opposition party's presidential nominee. Owens already has statewide name ID and already has statewide voters used to voting for him. He'd be a great candidate, but he'd be better set for 2008 as a governor, IMO-- though he'd be doing what George Allen and Evan Bayh did and they are both properly viewed as great presidential candidates for 2008.

[NHPolitico]

The GOP could get their favored opponent in IL--

WEEK-TV-Pantagraph poll shows a shift in the front runner position to become the Democratic candidate for Illinois Senate and some weaknesses for President Bush in the state.

The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from March 1 through March 3, 2004 with a total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections. The margin for error is 5% for both primary samples.

After a week of battling questions about a domestic violence charge in his past former frontrunner Blair Hull is now third in the race to represent his party for Peter Fitzgerald's position. Barack Obama has 22% of the responses, compared to 20% for Dan Hynes. Hull comes in next with 15% of the vote, one percent ahead of Maria Pappas. 23% of the deomcratic primary voters are undecided in the poll.

On the republican side, Jack Ryan leads with more than double the vote of the next closest candidate, Jim Oberweis. Ryan has the support of 38% of those polled compared to 15% for Oberweis and 10% for McKenna. 26% of the republican voters are still undecided.

In the Presidential race, those who responded to the poll said if the election was held today, 54% would vote for John Kerry compared to 36% for George W. Bush and one percent for Ralph Nader.
----------------------
Barak also won the endorsements of the Tribune and Sun-Times. He's no DLCer. There will be clear ideological differences.