Senate Elections - 2004

[opebo]

I don't know whether Toomey could win the seat, but I bet he'd have a good chance.  He's about the same ideologically as Santorum.  I would consider it well worth the risk of losing the seat to the Democrats to run a real Republican there.  After all the majority is gauranteed by the Southern seats opening up, so we might as well get rid of the liberal Republicans like Specter if possible.

[opebo]

I think Harris would've actually had a very good chance at the Florida Senate seat.  Since she's not running, who's likely to be the nominee?  Martinez?

[opebo]

About South Dakota: I think Thune may have a better chance against Dashle this time round than against Johnson in 02.  The reason is this - Bush supporters in SD will see him as being attacked and possibly unseated by the Democrat nominee.  He's very popular there and SD voters may wish to accentuate their support in his moment of need by voting for Thune.  In 02 the only argument for Thune was to 'support the president's agenda' in the senate.  This time it wil be more a visceral loyalty issue to a man who will be genunitely at risk in a close presidential election.  More of an emotional argument of course - voting for Thune won't actually increase Bush's electoral chances.  Its more of a sense of urgency that will be imparted by the Presidential race.

[opebo]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Don't think you'll get AK.  As I've said before, its just too clearly against the real financial interests of everyone in the state.

[opebo]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Wait, what about FL?  I think you'ld retain LA before FL.

[opebo]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Don't think you'll get AK.  As I've said before, its just too clearly against the real financial interests of everyone in the state.

AK wouldn't suprise me at all as a Dem pick-up...in fact, it's probably the second most likely one.  And I don't think the Dems lose ND - you can't beat a Senator without a candidate.

In related news, a new KTTU-TV poll gives Knowles a 45%-41% lead with 3% for Sykes (Green).

Yeah I agree about ND.. didn' t notice there in that quote.  But I'll be astounded if Murkowski can't remind Alaskans how much against their interests a Democratic Senator is by election day.  You just don't see many states where the issues are so narrow and so clearly defined by the national parties.  

[opebo]

2-2-04

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Christopher "Kit" Bond appears to be in a comfortable position against his likely Democratic rival, state Treasurer Nancy Farmer.

Of those polled, 52 percent said they planned to vote for Bond, compared with 35 percent for Farmer. Only 13 percent said they were undecided.

Because Bond's "threshold of support is over 50 percent" and the undecided percentage is so low, Ali said, it could be tough for Farmer to defeat the senator.

Still, only 47 percent of those polled gave Bond a job approval rating of "excellent" or "good," which indicates that some voters might be persuaded to change their minds, Ali said.

Farmer's problem is that many voters don't know who she is. Only 28 percent said they had a "favorable" opinion of her, while 16 percent rated her unfavorable," and more than half - 56 percent - said they had no opinion.

Bond's "favorable" rating was 53 percent, while 38 percent gave him an "unfavorable" rating and only 9 percent had no opinion.

Lesage, for example, backs Bond, "partly because I don't know enough about the other person." She couldn't recall Farmer's name.

I think Bond always gets about 52-53%, so he's right on target.

[opebo]

Yikes, does the Colorado GOP have someone strong lined up?

[opebo]

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?

Yeah it was very safe before, now it is tossup or actually probably leans Republican slightly.

[opebo]

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?

Yeah it was very safe before, now it is tossup or actually probably leans Republican slightly.

B/c CO is a Republican state in general?

Right.  So if two more or less equal candidates run, it should go GOP.. but how likely is that.  I just have no idea who's lined up.

[opebo]

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?

Yeah it was very safe before, now it is tossup or actually probably leans Republican slightly.

B/c CO is a Republican state in general?

Right.  So if two more or less equal candidates run, it should go GOP.. but how likely is that.  I just have no idea who's lined up.

Senatorial elections don't seem to correpond that closely to general political alignement though. Look at Indiana, South Dakota, etc.

Right, they're sort of the least likely office to follow a trend.  But even so, they are effected by the state's tendency more often than not.  Like I said, if the candidates were equal personally, the GOP one would win in Colorado.  But a very strong Dem would beat a weak GOP.

[opebo]

Owens would win the Senate seat fairly easily if he wants it.  What happens to the Governorship in that event?

[opebo]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

[opebo]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

And he's seriously ahead in the primary?!  We might have a chance at keeping Fitzgerald's seat after all.

[opebo]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

And he's seriously ahead in the primary?!  We might have a chance at keeping Fitzgerald's seat after all.

He is young,  handsome and succesfull
and the state has 18% or so afro-american and 13% hispanic

I don't think hispanics are particularly likely to vote for african americans.  I was more talking about the muslim aspect.