Senate Elections - 2004

[JNB]

 Realpolitik, wrong. Downstate IL at the time did and still as a Democratic machine in the St. Claire and Madison county suburbs of St Louis, and further south of there, untill recently, that area was dominated by Democrats(albiet of a more southren stripe). Rock Island was and still is dominated by Democrats as well. So if you have any proof of GOP fraud in 1960, please present it.

[JNB]

 Yes, the counties with the biggst population in Southren IL, St Clair county and Madison counties, across the river from St Louis, went solidly for JFK.

[JNB]

  IN SC, the only polls taken were from a Democratic pollster. The fact the likely Democratic canidate is a left of center female who is pro choice and anti gun will make the 04 election a uphill climb no matter who she runs against. When the GOP nominee is decided and gets better known, possibly Rep. DeMint, he will unless he runs a horrible campaign pull ahead. In NC, a similar situation, the GOP canidate is not too well known yet. Probably NC Democratic canidate, Bowles, being in the Clinton white house, wont even have the trade issue working for him because of Clintons unabashed support for NAFTA and GATT.

  In GA, the Democrats yet to even have any real canidate enter the race yet. As for KY being a toss-up, based on what? Any Democratic canidate for the KY senate seat will have to face a well funded, non scandal tarred incumbent.  

   When trying to asses a political situaion, one has to get rid of all of the noise and spin and looking at the voting behavior of the varios states. In SC, Inez Tennebaum who is the probably Democratic nominiee is probably similar to LA Sen. Landreau, but there is a world of different between SC and LA, namely the GOP of SC is a powerhouse organisation down to the precinct level than knows how to turn votes out if need be. The 2002 election was a excellent example. The LA GOP outside of a few suburban parish' still is not a viable organisation.

[JNB]

  In the Southren states, I will say that the GOP VA, SC, TX and FL has a better ground organisation than the Democrats do, not to mention better financial resources to get out their votes. In TN, AL, MS, NC and GA, the parties in terms of organisation are more or less at parity, with the GOP in TN being hurt by a unpopular former gov that raised taxes and badly alienated the GOP base, while NC the Dems have been greatly helped by the former 4 term Democratic gov who almost single handley let the Dems there remain viable.

  In LA and AR, it seems the GOP has gained little ground since the 70s and is not viable on any level exxcept the presidential level.

[JNB]

 The lone GOP district in AR is a GOP stronghold. The Democrats had their best shot in the 2001 special election, and the GOP Canidate still got 56% of the vote. The national Democratic party will not throw any more money at this seat since their resources are limited and they have better chances elsewhere.

[JNB]

  Rep. Chris John is fairly conservative, he is pro life and pro gun, but on the other hand, and this may be a factor in Nov, his vote for Rep. Pelosi as speaker is not going to be easy to explained, throw in a possible Dean canidacy, an dthe fact that the is not many white liberals in LA, and it becoems a toss up election. The probable GOP canidate is Rep. Vitter.

[JNB]

 Dailykos is clueless in my opinion. Too many people who never leave fashionable inner city enclaves or university towns dominate the Democrats on the net.

  In SC, DailyKos did not mention that former SC Gov David Beasley, who lost his re election in 98, is 10 points ahead of Tennenbaum in a poll at 45-35, also the electorate in SC is not 60% female, it may be 52, maybe 53% female at the very most, but that 60% number is a illusion. Unless the GOP self destructs here, the GOP will pick up the SC senate seat, especially with Bush on top of the ballot.

[JNB]

 In 98, Sen. Reid ran against then Rep. Ensign, and he was the best possible canidate that could have ran against Sen. Reid, with Rep. Ensign representing Democratic(nominally at least) Las Vegas. Sen. Reid won by only 300 votes, and Rep. Ensign did end up winning the other NV senate seat with 55% of the vote in 2000.