Obviously partisan (as much as any of us I guess) and very much wishful thinking -- but If I were them, I would be wishing too.
The general assumption here is the Republicans should pick up a few of the retiring Democratic seats for a net gain of 2-3 seats.
However for a fairly detailed alternative view and reality check see:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/24/215824/13
and
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/25/172540/05
In this analysis the GOP will likely lose IL and AK, while OK and CO (if Hart runs) are toss ups. Races that could come into play are: NH, PA, KY, even UT and AL
The Democrats are likely to lose only GA, with FL as a toss-up, NC, SC, LA lean Democratic, and FL would lean Democratic if Harris runs. SD might become competitive, if Thune runs. (No mention of WA?)
Thus this analysis gives the Democrats a good chance to take the Senate.
Senate races can run contrary to Presidential races (Bush won in 2000 but the Republicans lost 5 seats), so even a Bush victory does not imply the Republicans will retain the Senate. I think the Senate races will turn out to be very interesting and we'll need to wait until the primaries are done and the final match-ups are known to get an accurate idea of how they are heading. If the Presidential race is another close election, it may come down to who can raise the most money under the new rules and who best gets their message across. Of course, if Bush (or Dean?) wins easily, it would probably affect some of the Senate races as well.
