Senate Elections - 2004

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just because an incumbent vacates his seat does not mean that the "enemy" gains it.

What might happen in 2004 is the Dems gaining control of the House while the GOP cement their hold on the Senate.

I stress the word "might".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I said might

The House should(in theory) lean Democrat while the Senate should(in theory) lean GOP.

I stress the word theory...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Daley certainly commited fraud in 1960... however the GOP machine in the rest of the State was doing exactly the same thing.

Call it quits

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Er... have you actually seen a map of the 1960 election in Illinois?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Darth... you belive Richard Nixon?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've heard of people being partizan but...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...But did he? There is no evidence for it at all.

Nixon rigged an entire election, overthrew a democratically elected government in Chile, is responsible for the Khmer Rouge, bugged the DNC and prolonged the Vietnam War.

Amoungst other things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Returning to the topic of next years Senate elections...

According to recent opinion polls(ie; not my predictions) :

NY: Dem
CT: Dem
PA: Rep
MD: Dem
OH: Rep
KY: Toss Up
NC: Dem
SC: Dem
GA: Dem
FL: Toss Up
MO: Rep
IL: Rep
WI: Dem
ND: Dem
SD: Dem
CO: Rep
NV: Dem
CA: Dem
WA: Dem

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To repeat they are NOT my predictions but they ARE what the polls are currently showing.
Whether they are accurate or not is VERY different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What ideological war? The Dems in the South have ALWAYS been more socially conservative than their Northern relations.

Arkansas is a Democratic stronghold; Huckabee only won because of a corruption scandal and his popularity has been waning for sometime.
If anything the Republican's are waning in Arkansas as the Dems picked up district 4 in 2000 and easily held onto it in 2002. They are also considering putting up a serious challanger in district 3.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AR-3 is a GOP stronghold, but the Arkansas Dems seem to think they have a chance there.
I doubt it(it's leaned GOP for a LONG time), but it's worth mentioning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll take that deal!(BTW the GOP should pick up at least 1 and probably 2 and possibly up to 4 of said Southern seats)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In theory of the Democrat's open seats in the South, the most vunerable is SC, followed by GA then FL then NC then LA.
Theory not practice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SC is actually more vunerable than GA...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually he would probably have won, and I think that the financial/logistical problems of running two races at the same time forced him to choose.
Boring but more realistic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voinovich is going to win big. If he gets under 60% I'd be suprised.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

DC's political report prediction

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the best Republicans in Congress is going?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This article is by Bob Novak of all people:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting development... the Dems do have an outside chance to pick up hold another Senate seat

BTW Rococo there *are* quite a few strong Dems in GA, but most are waiting to challenge hapless GOP Governer Sonny Perdue in 2006...