Senate Elections - 2004

[jravnsbo]

Ok Hi I'm new here but have posted on other forums.  The GOP will keep control of the House no problem, just too far ahead Dems need to net 13 seats plus with redistricting many prognostigators feel GOP will control HOuse till 20010 at least.

Ok yes this forum is very relevant then.  I see GOP definately keeping control of the chamber.  Dems need to net 2 seats or at least 1 and win presidency.

DEms are just too vulnerable int he SOuth with so many open seats.  I see GA and SC definately going to GOP and likely NC.  FL and LA are a lot moe competitive and tossups depending on a lot of factors.  I do think LA will be open as Breaux hinted strong on "This Wekk" he would retire and announce it by Dec 15 either way.

GOP vulnerable seats have improved significantly.  They were thought to be vulnerable in KY ( gone with GOP surge and Patton scandal); PA b/c of Spector's primary challenge, but it looks like Spector is comfortable.  That leaves OK, which will be competitive but you have to give the GOP an edge b/c of Bush ont he ticket and traditional OK GOP leanings.  I think IL definately favors Dems and will most likely cancel out GA.  AK is a tossup, as Knowles has never run in a Prez election year, but Murkowski name isn't that great with Gov Murkowski and appointing his daughter.  Appoints anyone else and GOP wins easy.

DEms have potential soft targets in SD if Thune runs, WI-straight up as Feingold doesn't take money; Lincoln , Dorgan and Reid could all be vulnerable but GOP doesn't have any strong candidates yet.

Boxer could be interesting with the right candidate and Arnold helping out.

In any event I see GOP picking up seats, making 2006 even harder for DEms.  

[jravnsbo]

PAul--Gov Huckabee is not running for Senate, he has already said that.

---Someone posted--Well, Bush being at the top of the ticket would help Murkowski, but I doubt he'll make very many campaign appearances to help her out.
In fact, when was the last time any Presidential candidate campaigned in Alaska or Hawaii in the general election? There isn't much point, since neither is competitive, and they are so far away from the rest of the country.


Actually Bush stopped in HI on the way back from asian conference recently.

[jravnsbo]

  In the Southren states, I will say that the GOP VA, SC, TX and FL has a better ground organisation than the Democrats do, not to mention better financial resources to get out their votes. In TN, AL, MS, NC and GA, the parties in terms of organisation are more or less at parity, with the GOP in TN being hurt by a unpopular former gov that raised taxes and badly alienated the GOP base, while NC the Dems have been greatly helped by the former 4 term Democratic gov who almost single handley let the Dems there remain viable.

  In LA and AR, it seems the GOP has gained little ground since the 70s and is not viable on any level exxcept the presidential level.

-I beg to differ, until Gov elect Blanco, still shaking my head there -takes off I need to remind you that the Gov is GOP Mike Foster a two term governor.  In AR the GOP has a 2 term Gov in Mike Huckabee, plus GOP did have one Sen , Tim Hutchinson until 2002 election--granted first GOP senator since reconstruction but the GOP is making progress.

The GOP in the South is winning the ideological war as the dems are conservative to moderate too and have to disown the national Dem party to win, so even when GOP loses the winner is still a conservative.

[jravnsbo]

Well Zell Miller , John Breaux and other leading Dems nknow that the National Party , not just the North, but the west is completely out of touch.  

The GOP has won in very Dem areas lately and Dems are on the defensive completely.  The gOP controls the House, Senate, 28 Gov and with the Southern Dem the GOP has an ever bigger majority as a lot of those Dems know they can't vote for the Dem agenda.  Look at the debate here alone about the Southern Dems and voting consistently with the GOP, Mary Landrieu ran on how she voted for Bush 90%+ of the time.  Slowly the Southern Dems have realized that while they may like the Dem candidate though they know a vote to keep them in supports Ted Kennedy, Hilliary CLinton, Chuck Shumer and Tom Daschle also.

[jravnsbo]

ty ryan, that was meant to be 2010 and many think that GOP will hold it till then at least.  And these are not just GOP people they are people lie Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook and larry Sabato-indep analyists.

[jravnsbo]

FL Senate news--


Reno Endorses Castor for U.S. Senate
Mon Dec 1,12:06 PM ET  Add Politics - U. S. Congress to My Yahoo!
 


MIAMI - Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno (news - web sites) endorsed former state education commissioner Betty Castor in the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate on Monday, citing Castor's long commitment to bolstering education and the environment.

   

Reno chose Castor over two other prominent Democrats seeking the seat of retiring Sen. Bob Graham — Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas and U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch.


Castor was Florida's commissioner of education from 1987 to 1993, then was president of the University of South Florida until 1999, when she became president of the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards.


Republicans in the Senate race include former Judicial Watch head Larry Klayman, state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, state Sen. Daniel Webster and former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum, the party's unsuccessful Senate candidate in 2000.


Reno sought the Democratic nomination for governor last year, but was edged by attorney Bill McBride.

[jravnsbo]

Also the senate looks to be in good shape for the GOP too for a bit.  Pick up a min 2 seats this time and it is 53-46-1.  Then in 2006 the Dems have a lot of vulnerable ones again or possible retirees.

Just hold the Prez as I think the GOP will do and they should be in great shape fo a while.

[jravnsbo]

Marin Joins GOP Field Hoping to Unseat Sen. Boxer The ex-U.S. treasurer announces her candidacy in Huntington Park, where she served on the City Council. She stresses her immigrant roots, says she is a political outsider.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-marin3dec03,1,6573235.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

[jravnsbo]

SAN FRANCISCO - Former Secretary of State Bill Jones will seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer next year, aides said Thursday.

   

His entry would set up a four-person campaign for the GOP nomination among Jones, former Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey, Ventura County Assemblyman Tony Strickland and former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin.


Jones will file nominating papers Friday in his home town of Fresno, his aides said. Friday is the deadline for candidates to get on the ballot for the March 2 primary.


Jones served two terms as secretary of state and finished third in the race for the GOP nomination for governor in 2002.


Many Republicans have said privately that Jones would probably pose the strongest challenge to Boxer because he has relatively high name recognition.


But Jones will have to overcome his decision to switch his endorsement from George W. Bush to Arizona Sen. John McCain during the California presidential primary in 2000. That change angered many party activists.

[jravnsbo]

Breaux Says He'll Retire From Senate

WASHINGTON — Louisiana Sen. John Breaux (search), a leading Democratic centrist during three terms in office, has told fellow lawmakers he intends to retire next year rather than seek re-election, officials said Monday.

 
 
Breaux's retirement would make him the fifth southern Democrat to step down in 2004, further compounding the party's difficulties in its struggle to gain a Senate majority.

Breaux, 59, scheduled an announcement in Baton Rouge. Several officials speaking on condition of anonymity said he informed several fellow lawmakers of his intentions.

Republicans hold a 51-48 majority in the Senate, with one Democrat-leaning independent.

Apart from Breaux, four other southern Democrats have announced plans to retire in states where President Bush figures to run strongly next year. They are Sens. Bob Graham (search) of Florida; John Edwards of North Carolina, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina and Zell Miller of Georgia.

Breaux, 59, had long encouraged speculation that his career in the Senate might be coming to a close — to the point that he announced recently that if he did choose to retire, he would finish out his present term.

Breaux was the youngest member of Congress when he was elected to the House in 1972 at the age of 28. He won his Senate seat in 1986, and as a centrist, often positioned himself to work across party lines.

Most recently, he was instrumental in negotiating the landmark Medicare (search) legislation that cleared Congress. The bill provides prescription drugs under Medicare at the same time it creates a new opportunity for private plans to offer health coverage to 40 million seniors and disabled individuals.

Breaux also was an early Democratic visitor to President-elect George W. Bush's ranch in 2000, although he took himself out of consideration for a Cabinet post in a Republican administration.

His departure is expected to prompt two members of the state's House delegation to jump into the 2004 Senate race, Reps. Chris John, a Democrat, and David Vitter, a Republican.

Republicans have never won a Louisiana Senate seat since Reconstruction.

The same isn't true in the other Southern Senate seats being vacated by Democrats. And whatever the outcomes of the races in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, each retirement means Democrats must defend a seat without benefit of an incumbent, creating an opportunity for Republicans.

[jravnsbo]

Yes, yes they are.  Already llooked and Dem candidate in LA is a member of the Blue Dog coalitiona dn so the Dems know they have to runa  mod to conservative to win there, not an anti war tax increasing liberl like Dean.

[jravnsbo]

Yes vitter is ahead on money by double Johns.  Plus the Dems will now have to spend money there that they wouldn't have had to win Brreux running.

Dean and Pelosi will hurt Johns a lot.  

[jravnsbo]

Yeah the DEms will now have to strategize and see what seats they think have the best bets instead of fighting them all out.  

I don't see whoever gets the Dem nomin in GA getting much assistance.  Plus GOP while still in an uphill battle looks poised to nominate Jack Ryan in IL, who has a lot of his own money, so then GOP can focus on other states without completely abandoning its most troubled state.

[jravnsbo]

Not sure of any major challenger to Shumer, but I'll tell you this.

I'd give you the 5 southern seats to be forever rid of Chuck "I want to take all your guns away" Schumer.  I'd vote for Ted Kennedy or even Hilliary before ever lift a finger for Chuck.

[jravnsbo]

I see 4 GOP pickups, maybe a clean sweep! especially if Dean is the nominee.  Plus a gain of around 7-10 seats int he House, pushing the Dems below 200.

[jravnsbo]

I agree.  GA, NC, SC will for sure go to GOP.  Then FL with Martinez could go GOP.  That leaves LA of open seats and will be an even race, and Dems may have a primary as Johns may get challenged By AG Inyoube(sp) and maybe another.

--oh sidenote, Jindal may run for Vitter's house seat I see from New Orleans papers--

SD will make Dems spend a lot of money and time protecting that seat.  Leans to Daschle yet, but will keep him in SD and man I hope thune runs as I will work actively on his campaign.

-----

OK--sounds like Carson also may have a weak primary challenge but still one he will have to spend some cash on.  

PA- will go to Spector easily.

IL- as I said leans Dem, but with Jack Ryan GOP will have a well financed candidate.

AK- in the end Knowles will get beat as while fine in AK, a vote for him is also for Kennedy and all the opponents of ANWAR, even if Knowles is for it.

[jravnsbo]

Theory is fine, but practice is what is at stake.

GOP just needs to get their nominees in GA, SC, FL.  Then it will be a lot clearer as to who will be our next Senators

Still am surprised that GA can't even get a candidate out besides an unknown state senator with no money.

[jravnsbo]

The Courts get interestig anyway, as the GOP may go Nucleur and just press throw the blocked judges now to GIVE THEM A VOTE!

Plus Always remember GOP has Nelson (D-NE) yet voting to let the judges come to a vote.  Every vote helps.

[jravnsbo]

Also important is that the Dems are losing  lot of seniority in senators that know how the system works, even if they would hold the seats ( which i don't see).

GOP's vulnerable seat in IL is held by a 1 termer, not a lot of seniority lost there.  Nickles is a blow though.

[jravnsbo]

A good article on the LA Senate race


With Breaux Gone, Will the GOP Finally Take Advantage?

by Prof. Jeff Sadow
PoliticsLA.com columnist
posted December 22, 2003
read bio

The Louisiana merry-go-around never stops when it comes to politics. Just as soon as we’re over statewide elections, Sen. John Breaux’s anticipated announcement of his retirement starts a ripple effect that may be felt all over the state.

Breaux’s premature retirement (after all, he’ll only serve 18 years, not the 20+ we’re used to out of our senators) will shake up the state’s electoral landscape. Already on the Republican side it has prompted two politicians to come forward and offer their services at higher levels starting next year: Rep. David Vitter for Breaux’s seat, and state Rep. Steve Scalise for Vitter’s current seat.

Scalise’s path approximates that of Vitter’s when the latter took over from the resigned Bob Livingston five years back. The Metairie Republican is a solid conservative who would match up well with the district’s sentiments. However, he likely faces a challenge from recent gubernatorial runner-up Bobby Jindal. The Baton Rouge Republican has a ton of name recognition and goodwill carrying over from his recent bid, and he won a large majority in the First District area. His problem is that he is not, yet, a resident of the district. This may create political problems that might derail an otherwise sure win.

On the Democrat side, Rep. Chris John also has declared his intent to run for Breaux’s seat. But others are looking at the contest as well, including state Treasurer John Kennedy, Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, and possibly former Rep. Buddy Leach. All contested the recent governor’s race although Kennedy dropped out early to win uncontested reelection to the Treasurer’s office.

The advantage swings to the GOP if any two of these others were to run against John. Vitter looks to have a field clear of any other Republican heavyweights. But all three of John’s potential opponents have run credible statewide races, two of them winning more than once. Any two of them in would guarantee Vitter making the general election runoff.

All three present problems for John making the runoff, however. John is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress – interest group rating scores in aggregate put him slightly left of center, almost exactly with Breaux – but he could end up facing another moderate (Kennedy) fresh off an uncontested win with campaign cash ready, a liberal (Ieyoub) with a pair of close calls to winning, one being the 1996 Senate race, the other the recent gubernatorial contest, who’s about to lose his present electoral office, and another liberal (Leach) with plenty of (his own) money to burn.

These potential candidates all have motivation to run and they could end up splintering Democrat votes enough so that John cannot make it through to face Vitter. Note also that the election’s conjunction with the presidential election also will have a major impact on the Democrat that will head to the general election contested next December.

Signs increasingly point to Vermont Gov. Howard Dean getting the Democrat nomination. As moderate Democrats continue to be won over by President George W. Bush, the Angry Left has steadily gained influence within the national Democrat Party, epitomized by former Vice President Al Gore’s endorsement of Dean. Other Democrats will opt out of their party’s nomination process and the resulting Dean nomination will create a great opportunity for the GOP to win big.

These voters also will opt out of the November election or vote for Bush. The coattail effect will extend to Louisiana, favoring Vitter and to the disadvantage of John and Kennedy. That makes it more likely that liberals such as Ieyoub or Leach would make it through to the general election, creating an almost sure win for Vitter.

GOP gains may not stop there. When John first ran for Congress in 1996, he eked out a narrow win against two strong Republicans. His district may respond poorly to the Angry Left’s candidate as the Democrat presidential nominee, giving the Republican candidates there an advantage.

So the GOP has its best chance in some time to win (finally) a U.S. Senate seat and pick up a House seat (and this doesn’t even count the expected tough competition Rep. Rodney Alexander will get from a Republican challenger, possibly the previous seat-holder John Cooksey, in what many analysts consider the most vulnerable district in the country for the Democrats). The state’s Republicans have acquired a reputation as underperforming their Southern brethren electorally. Maybe even they can win some big ones under this scenario.

[jravnsbo]

IS he running, hadn't heard that yet, got a link?

Udall is running in Colorado.  Campbell will be re-elected easily.

[jravnsbo]

Good that race leans to Campbell but glad Udall is not in, to have to divert resources there , when they can be used in other places.

[jravnsbo]

well that site is a liberal leaning one and so naturally it favors the Dems.  Notsurprising, looked at it before.

The general assumption here is the Republicans should pick up a few of the retiring Democratic seats for a net gain of 2-3 seats.
However for a fairly detailed alternative view and reality check see:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/24/215824/13
and
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/25/172540/05
In this analysis the GOP will likely lose IL and AK, while OK and CO (if Hart runs) are toss ups.  Races that could come into play are: NH, PA, KY, even UT and AL
The Democrats are likely to lose only GA, with FL as a toss-up, NC, SC, LA lean Democratic, and FL would lean Democratic if Harris runs.  SD might become competitive, if Thune runs. (No mention of WA?)
Thus this analysis gives the Democrats a good chance to take the Senate.

Senate races can run contrary to Presidential races (Bush won in 2000 but the Republicans lost 5 seats), so even a Bush victory does not imply the Republicans will retain the Senate.    I think the Senate races will turn out to be very interesting and we'll need to wait until the primaries are done and the final match-ups are known to get an accurate idea of how they are heading.  If the Presidential race is another close election, it may come down to who can raise the most money under the new rules and who best gets their message across.  Of course, if Bush (or Dean?) wins easily, it would probably affect some of the Senate races as well.

[jravnsbo]

He is not running but he COULD HAVE he had so desired.  But Edwards was not popular enough in either race to make it work.

Is John Edwards running for re-election or will he use his new popularity for somthing maybe governor.  

Can Edwards run for re-election in the senate if he is running for president cause i no in some states you can't?

[jravnsbo]

Well in early polls he was even with Rep Burr or just slightly ahead.  Then throw in the growing war chest of Burr and Bush at the top of the ticket and the fact that Edwards is TRAILING bush in NC, and he is a goner.  

Lieberman and Benson ran at the same time, Edwards just knew he couldn't do it, esp with pressure from party to choose, with the close senate makeup.