Survey USA: Macaca Impact?: Webb (D) Closes in on Allen (R) in Virgina
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  Survey USA: Macaca Impact?: Webb (D) Closes in on Allen (R) in Virgina
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Author Topic: Survey USA: Macaca Impact?: Webb (D) Closes in on Allen (R) in Virgina  (Read 4034 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: August 21, 2006, 04:05:39 PM »

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Survey USA on 2006-08-18

Summary: D: 45%, R: 48%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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MasterJedi
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2006, 04:50:45 PM »

This poll is wrong. I can gurantee that.

*waits for people to actually believe Webb will win to go into attack formation*
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jokerman
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2006, 04:53:59 PM »

This poll is wrong. I can gurantee that.

*waits for people to actually believe Webb will win to go into attack formation*
This is the second poll showing that the race has narrowed significantly, Masterjedi.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2006, 04:55:22 PM »

This poll is wrong. I can gurantee that.

*waits for people to actually believe Webb will win to go into attack formation*
This is the second poll showing that the race has narrowed significantly, Masterjedi.

Yes, it has tightened. It's not 3% though. And this is August, by November there will be another double diget lead for Allen.
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2006, 05:10:33 PM »

If Webb can raise 5 million in the next month or so he can make it competitive.

Granted, only Hillary Clinton is capable of raising that type of cash.  In other words, Webb's done.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2006, 05:16:14 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2006, 05:22:10 PM by Eraserhead »

If Webb can raise 5 million in the next month or so he can make it competitive.

Granted, only Hillary Clinton is capable of raising that type of cash.  In other words, Webb's done.

Its already competetive. This is terrible news for Allen. I'm pretty sure he had a 20 point lead in this poll a while back. Still, I would like to see one more poll back back up Rasmussen and SurveyUSA.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2006, 05:18:55 PM »

The dynamics of the race have changed only because of Allen's gaffe.  Webb cant run on the macaca statement forever.  Given Allen's cash advantage, a month from now this thing could be Allen +20 again.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2006, 05:20:13 PM »

Something to think about...

Survey USA NAILED the 2005 gubernatorial race in VA.

They published a poll the night before the election that showed Kaine +5. Everyone through it out, called it an outlier.

Next day, Kaine +6.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2006, 05:24:22 PM »

Something to think about...

Survey USA NAILED the 2005 gubernatorial race in VA.

They published a poll the night before the election that showed Kaine +5. Everyone through it out, called it an outlier.

Next day, Kaine +6.

So wouldn't that just prove my point (that at least right now) the race is in fact competetive?
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2006, 05:29:48 PM »

It proves that this poll is probably an accurate snap-shot of how the race would playout if the election were held today.  But as you know, the election is not today, it is in November.  And that is were Allen's 10 to 1 cash advantage will come into play.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2006, 05:54:25 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2006, 05:56:53 PM by nickshepDEM »

Webb campaigning at a Gun Show in Roanoke, VA.



http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4030
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2006, 06:44:08 PM »

Ya, the whole money problem is er... a big problem.  Still trying to figure out why the Democrats are not helping him.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2006, 06:52:50 PM »

We'll see in the next week or so... Maybe internals are showing a different story?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2006, 07:20:25 PM »

You cannot predict Webb will win until he has taken the lead and he has yet to do so. Of all the candidates so far in the vulnerable republicans him and Pederson has yet to take the lead, and I am not ready to concede this race to Webb until he has done so.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2006, 08:24:41 PM »

If Webb can raise 5 million in the next month or so he can make it competitive.

Granted, only Hillary Clinton is capable of raising that type of cash.  In other words, Webb's done.

Money isn't everything!!! Webb can win this.

His fundraising has already picked up and the DSCC will help him the final two months of his campaign.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2006, 08:25:40 PM »

Ya, the whole money problem is er... a big problem.  Still trying to figure out why the Democrats are not helping him.

Good god, they're barely helping any candidates yet. It's still August.

The DSCC will throw significant money Webb's way.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2006, 08:29:56 PM »

What needs to happen is Mark Warner out there campaigning for James Webb. If Webb wins the race, Warner rises another notch in the 2008 primary race.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2006, 09:20:48 PM »

Ya, the whole money problem is er... a big problem.  Still trying to figure out why the Democrats are not helping him.

Good god, they're barely helping any candidates yet. It's still August.

The DSCC will throw significant money Webb's way.

They have not indicated so yet, and they already have listed their early receipients of funds (which were posted here a couple of weeks ago). 

Webb's candidacy right now has third-tier funding.  He has an opportunity to turn this into a good race, imo, if he's able to hold the pressure on Allen through other attacks, but this requires funds.  If he doesn't, the effect of this story will slowly disappear in people's minds and Allen's great money advantage will take its toll.

Of course, maybe Nick is right and the internals are saying something different.  Otherwise, it makes no sense to wait.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2006, 09:22:13 PM »

They have not indicated so yet, and they already have listed their early receipients of funds (which were posted here a couple of weeks ago). 

Webb is on the list of eight Democratic challengers that will receive money from the DSCC.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2006, 09:28:06 PM »

The fact that this is even a horse race now makes you wonder how badly Mark Warner would have beat Allen if he ran.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2006, 09:35:49 PM »

I wanted to see Allen today on his "listening tour," but unfortunately his events were at the local country club. Insert Republican stereotype here.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2006, 09:47:27 PM »

The "macaca" video is still one of the funniest things I've ever seen.,

"Welcome to America, Macaca!!" LMAO.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2006, 10:12:30 PM »

They have not indicated so yet, and they already have listed their early receipients of funds (which were posted here a couple of weeks ago). 

Webb is on the list of eight Democratic challengers that will receive money from the DSCC.

What type of money is he getting, because if he is, I have not heard about it yet.
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Smash255
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2006, 10:13:10 PM »

I still think Allen is a clear favorite, but this is moving very close to competitive territory.  I would like to see one more poll before I say its competitive, but it is clearly moving in that direction.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2006, 10:15:51 PM »

I wouldn't be so sure about Webb winning this race.  Mason-Dixon came out with a 16 pt advantage for Allen. I think in the next one they will have Allen ahead again but with a smaller lead. I will not be so sure until M-D poll this race. So, far it is a lean not a tossup.
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