Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)  (Read 8469 times)
Kevin
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« Reply #25 on: September 02, 2006, 07:31:06 PM »
« edited: September 02, 2006, 07:34:28 PM by Kevin »

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.
This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.
Steele is in my opinon the cleanist politican out there and I have proof to back it up! For example why would somebody who's rallying cry is aganst corruption be corrupt himself. With Allen even though he shoots his mouth off sometimes he is a man with class unlike the partisan hacks NJ elects. Also thats kind of hard to defend since you come from a state which elected the most crooked politican in my life so far ,and that man is Torricelli. 
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Conan
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« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2006, 08:55:45 PM »

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.
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Conan
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« Reply #27 on: September 02, 2006, 09:03:53 PM »

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.
This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.
Steele is in my opinon the cleanist politican out there and I have proof to back it up! For example why would somebody who's rallying cry is aganst corruption be corrupt himself. With Allen even though he shoots his mouth off sometimes he is a man with class unlike the partisan hacks NJ elects. Also thats kind of hard to defend since you come from a state which elected the most crooked politican in my life so far ,and that man is Torricelli. 

Torricelli is only one out of many from all across the country. He has never even been charged with anything still. And yes Torricelli is a scumbag I am not trying to defend him. Also i never accused Steele of doing anything illegal. However all those you you continue to endorse with their banners are morally bankrupt. Burns is actually corrupt, "the most crooked". He should go to jail. However Menendez has never done anything the rules dont allow and that are up to interpretation for ethical reasons. I find it bizarre to call NJ Senators partison hacks when they are usually very low key especially when Corzine was there. None of the men you endorse are men of class and Burns should be in jail.
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Kevin
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« Reply #28 on: September 02, 2006, 09:21:55 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2006, 09:28:48 PM by Kevin »

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.
This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.

Corzine or the Corzinator as I like to call him is the definition of scumbag. 
Steele is in my opinon the cleanist politican out there and I have proof to back it up! For example why would somebody who's rallying cry is aganst corruption be corrupt himself. With Allen even though he shoots his mouth off sometimes he is a man with class unlike the partisan hacks NJ elects. Also thats kind of hard to defend since you come from a state which elected the most crooked politican in my life so far ,and that man is Torricelli. 

Torricelli is only one out of many from all across the country. He has never even been charged with anything still. And yes Torricelli is a scumbag I am not trying to defend him. Also i never accused Steele of doing anything illegal. However all those you you continue to endorse with their banners are morally bankrupt. Burns is actually corrupt, "the most crooked". He should go to jail. However Menendez has never done anything the rules dont allow and that are up to interpretation for ethical reasons. I find it bizarre to call NJ Senators partison hacks when they are usually very low key especially when Corzine was there. None of the men you endorse are men of class and Burns should be in jail.
Are you kidding? Corzine is the complete definition of scumbag.   
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ATFFL
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« Reply #29 on: September 02, 2006, 09:23:17 PM »

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #30 on: September 02, 2006, 10:54:22 PM »

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.

Still lets remember Casey has led in every poll released this year. Kean has led in very few.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #31 on: September 02, 2006, 11:55:56 PM »


Still lets remember Casey has led in every poll released this year. Kean has led in very few.

Absolutely true.

Though, at the risk of sounding incredibly cliche, there is only one poll that matters and it is still two months out.  Casey could win by 15 or lose by 10.  Kean could win by 8 or lose by 12.  We'll know soon enough.
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Conan
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« Reply #32 on: September 02, 2006, 11:58:07 PM »

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.
This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.

Corzine or the Corzinator as I like to call him is the definition of scumbag. 
Steele is in my opinon the cleanist politican out there and I have proof to back it up! For example why would somebody who's rallying cry is aganst corruption be corrupt himself. With Allen even though he shoots his mouth off sometimes he is a man with class unlike the partisan hacks NJ elects. Also thats kind of hard to defend since you come from a state which elected the most crooked politican in my life so far ,and that man is Torricelli. 

Torricelli is only one out of many from all across the country. He has never even been charged with anything still. And yes Torricelli is a scumbag I am not trying to defend him. Also i never accused Steele of doing anything illegal. However all those you you continue to endorse with their banners are morally bankrupt. Burns is actually corrupt, "the most crooked". He should go to jail. However Menendez has never done anything the rules dont allow and that are up to interpretation for ethical reasons. I find it bizarre to call NJ Senators partison hacks when they are usually very low key especially when Corzine was there. None of the men you endorse are men of class and Burns should be in jail.
Are you kidding? Corzine is the complete definition of scumbag.   
Oh yea sure he is. The man who used to lend his employees money to fix there homes and gives to charities across the country for all different causes. The scumbag who wants to balance the budget and defend New Jerseyans rights. Sure scumbag he is.
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Conan
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« Reply #33 on: September 03, 2006, 12:00:03 AM »

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.
No need for explanations or excuses. Santorum is done compared to Menendez. Get over it.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #34 on: September 03, 2006, 09:10:40 AM »

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.
No need for explanations or excuses. Santorum is done compared to Menendez. Get over it.

Do you really the only thing you've said to why Menendez will win is because he YOU feel he is not corrupt.  Obviously you missed the building scandal.

As for as Corzine, obviously you missed he shoved Codey out of the way and his giving jobs to his close friends and loaning state money to his girlfriend.

Kean wins because (no polls):
1.) His father is the most respected NJ politician (among all)
2.) His father is yet to hit the campaign trail
3.) Menendez has no one to fall back on and help him (Corzine is death)
4.) Bush came much closer in 2004, state is moving rightward
5.) No Republican has run statewide since the 2002 fiasco not named Doug Forrester
6.) Bob Menendez personally recommended Zelema Farber
7.) Bob Menendez is involved in a scandal involving a house he rented
8.) He has negative approval ratings, and so does Lautenberg and Corzine
9.) NJ is MA and would rather elect a moderate than an extremist (Codey's high approval compared to Corzine)
10.) NJ is ready for balance (hell LA broke a 100+ year streak in 04')
11.) Jim McGreevey is still in people's minds
12.) Jon Corzine is definetly in people's minds, along w/the budget fiasco
13.) Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide
14.) Bob Menendez's appointment by Corzine is direct link
15.) There is no direct link between Tom Kean Jr. and Bush
16.) NJ is smart enough to see what links are there and what aren't
17.) Most New Jerseyeans were upset that Codey got canned
18.) Tom Kean gives the base hope that they didn't have w/Forrester
19.) Most of NJ hates Hudson County politicians, and sees Menendez like Corzine as in that respect as well
20.) Ads don't have a huge effect in NJ liberal areas b/c of mixed markets (I've seen more Spitzer commercials than Kean)
21.) Menendez has not run close races because of his overwhemingly liberal area
22.) People think Tom Kean they think his father and Cristy Whitman, when was the last respectable NJ politician (except maybe Lautenberg)?
23.) Bob Torricelli is fresh in people's minds
24.) Tom Kean is doing a great job and more scandals will emerge
25.) The overall state of GOP candidates is improving

And most important:
After seeing him take dives in polls, NJ will replace Bob Menendez on the ballot like they always do when afraid of losing.
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Conan
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« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2006, 09:33:15 AM »

With those reasons, many of them false or speculated, I dont think Kean has much to run on.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2006, 09:35:29 AM »

With those reasons, many of them false or speculated, I dont think Kean has much to run on.

I love this, you are so afraid of Kean, you just throw out a blanket statement that those aren't true.  And if I wanted to fudge thing a little, I'd have 200 reasons, but sticking just to the truth I have those 25.
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Conan
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« Reply #37 on: September 03, 2006, 09:55:01 AM »


Kean wins because (no polls):
1.) His father is the most respected NJ politician (among all)
2.) His father is yet to hit the campaign trail
Kean Sr. has never announced plans to campaign.
3.) Menendez has no one to fall back on and help him (Corzine is death)
Corzine isnt death. http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/
4.) Bush came much closer in 2004, state is moving rightward
Everyone knows the state is moving leftward.
5.) No Republican has run statewide since the 2002 fiasco not named Doug Forrester
All republicans lose elections here.
6.) Bob Menendez personally recommended Zelema Farber
Doesnt mean anything. Corzine fired her.
7.) Bob Menendez is involved in a scandal involving a house he rented
Up for speculation.
8.) He has negative approval ratings, and so does Lautenberg and Corzine
Untrue http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/ http://strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_081706.htm
9.) NJ is MA and would rather elect a moderate than an extremist (Codey's high approval compared to Corzine) Corzine was elected and has elected liberal democratic senators for nearly 3 decades.
10.) NJ is ready for balance (hell LA broke a 100+ year streak in 04')
Opinion with nothing to back up. LA is nothing like NJ.
11.) Jim McGreevey is still in people's minds
Menendez is not McGreevey
12.) Jon Corzine is definetly in people's minds, along w/the budget fiasco
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/
13.) Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide
14.) Bob Menendez's appointment by Corzine is direct link
And?
15.) There is no direct link between Tom Kean Jr. and Bush
Cheney and Laura? R next to his name and support for Iraq
16.) NJ is smart enough to see what links are there and what aren't
In Menendez's favor then
17.) Most New Jerseyeans were upset that Codey got canned
Yet we elected Corzine
18.) Tom Kean gives the base hope that they didn't have w/Forrester
19.) Most of NJ hates Hudson County politicians, and sees Menendez like Corzine as in that respect as well
Yet they continue to elect them and approve http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/
20.) Ads don't have a huge effect in NJ liberal areas b/c of mixed markets (I've seen more Spitzer commercials than Kean)
They havent ran ads yet. But Corzines prove a lot.
21.) Menendez has not run close races because of his overwhemingly liberal area
22.) People think Tom Kean they think his father and Cristy Whitman, when was the last respectable NJ politician (except maybe Lautenberg)
Dick Codey, Bill Bradley. Our congressmen. Take away Whitman, she ruined the economy
23.) Bob Torricelli is fresh in people's minds
Nope
24.) Tom Kean is doing a great job and more scandals will emerge
Vice Versa too
25.) The overall state of GOP candidates is improving
Nope
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #38 on: September 03, 2006, 10:03:51 AM »

Is The Vorlon still around? He could analyse this thing.

If it gets to late September and Kean is still in the lead, I'll change my prediction from D to R for this state.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #39 on: September 03, 2006, 10:38:22 AM »

Is The Vorlon still around? He could analyse this thing.

If it gets to late September and Kean is still in the lead, I'll change my prediction from D to R for this state.

Time is unimportant, the number of undecideds is.  At least in New Jersey.
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Conan
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« Reply #40 on: September 03, 2006, 09:18:29 PM »

Is The Vorlon still around? He could analyse this thing.

If it gets to late September and Kean is still in the lead, I'll change my prediction from D to R for this state.
Kean isnt in the lead. No one is really leading according to polls. But naturally its leaning democratic.
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Smash255
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« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2006, 10:17:45 PM »

Looking at down with the left's list there I just had to laugh,  I think the best was bringing up Bush's better 2004 performance, and then mentioning Corzine's approvals.  When Corzine is in MUCH better shape in the state NOW than Bush is....  Rather interesting there got to say
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Conan
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« Reply #42 on: September 04, 2006, 02:17:13 AM »

Looking at down with the left's list there I just had to laugh,  I think the best was bringing up Bush's better 2004 performance, and then mentioning Corzine's approvals.  When Corzine is in MUCH better shape in the state NOW than Bush is....  Rather interesting there got to say
Click on one of those links and it will show Corzine approvals which are actually pretty good at 50% approval with a net of 18%.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2006, 04:50:18 PM »

Looking at down with the left's list there I just had to laugh,  I think the best was bringing up Bush's better 2004 performance, and then mentioning Corzine's approvals.  When Corzine is in MUCH better shape in the state NOW than Bush is....  Rather interesting there got to say
Click on one of those links and it will show Corzine approvals which are actually pretty good at 50% approval with a net of 18%.

By what insider polling?  NJ hates this man, YOU like him.  But it wouldn't surprise me if my stupid state somehow managed to vote in Menendez today.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2006, 05:27:28 PM »



From the SV link Conan posted:

Quote
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Now, Conan does link to a Farleigh Dickinson poll that seems to show Corzine with a net favorlable rating.  Looking deeper, this is not true.

Crosstabs of FDU Public Mind poll

From there:

Quote
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Quote
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How these two jibe with each other, I have no clue. 

Still, if you are going to take the FDU poll as gospel on the governor's approval, then this FDU poll is gospel on the status of the race.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #45 on: September 04, 2006, 05:48:49 PM »

Conan, you must be overton's twin, he only acknowledge things in polls you like, and if a poll shows Corzine was +20 favorability and Kean up, that is really, really, really, really bad news for you
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #46 on: September 04, 2006, 06:52:09 PM »

Like you don't base your things on your biases either, 3/7 polls have Kean up and you are overly excited and there is 17% still undecided.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #47 on: September 05, 2006, 08:07:17 AM »

Like you don't base your things on your biases either, 3/7 polls have Kean up and you are overly excited and there is 17% still undecided.

3/5, you can't count Rasmussen and FDU twice
I think that Kean is the absolute best candidate the GOP could have nominated at the moment (John Murphy will be more popular, but not yet), plus corruption doesn't tend to help people and corrupt is killing Menendez.  I'm sure Dems said the same thing a little before this in 02' that Torricelli wasnt corrupt, but I am putting the odds of Menendez being switched off the ballot at about 20%.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #48 on: September 05, 2006, 09:08:23 AM »

No, I am counting FDU poll and the SV poll at the end of July plus 2 Zogby polls plus the AP poll that was released at the end of July. No, quesiton Kean has the momentum by with 17% undecided I wouldn't bet at this point Kean will win.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #49 on: September 05, 2006, 09:10:21 AM »

No, I am counting FDU poll and the SV poll at the end of July plus 2 Zogby polls plus the AP poll that was released at the end of July. No, quesiton Kean has the momentum by with 17% undecided I wouldn't bet at this point Kean will win.

So, let's count 2 Zogby's (which are not credited by almost everyone on the site), but not Rasmussen or Quinnipiac.

According to what most people would do on the site (which is throw out Zogby) three of 5.
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