Who will drop out next?

[jravnsbo]

http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=31988

Lieberman just said he would not drop out after NH.  So who will drop out next?

[Gustaf]

Hard to say. I'll still go with Lieberman though. He is the only serious candidate left with no chance of winning. Here are my estimations:

Kerry: big mo, no reason to drop out any time soon, stands a good chance in Michigan, and will be in the race until then, at least. Current favourite.

Dean: lots of money and supporters, as well as big ego. Will probably carry on a lot longer than he really should. Which should keep him in the running for a long time.

Edwards: Has to stay on for SC, if he wins there and does well in other Feb 3rd primaries, which he probably will, he will  stay on. has momentum right now.

Clark: Also big ego, seems to have some reality issues, which will keep him on. Has a good chance on Feb 3rd, so he h as to stay on for that at least. Might drop out if he's defeated there, though.

Kucinich and Sharpton: not really serious candidates, so it's hard to tell when they will drop out. Sharpton will most likely stay on for the SC primary at any rate, so Kucinich might drop out after NH.

This leaves Lieberman. It's hard to tell though, I guess it's about how perceptive of reality the losing candidates are. And how much they can win/lose by dropping out/staying on.

[© tweed]

Lieberman, probably.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Both Lieberman and Kucinich will give up, but Lieberman is more likely. Kucinich is bullhead.

[Wakie]

Leiberman may not drop after NH but he'll surely drop 4 days later after the DE non-binding primary.

Kucinich probably won't last too much longer either.  He stands no real chance.

Sharpton will stay in even after the candidate is decided.  He was never a serious candidate, but he's been entertaining.  He's certainly raised his respectability.

None of the big 4 will drop until after a few of the southern primaries.

[© tweed]

Kucinich probably won't last too much longer either.  He stands no real chance.

Sharpton will stay in even after the candidate is decided.  He was never a serious candidate, but he's been entertaining.  He's certainly raised his respectability.

Both Sharpton and Kucinich will run though the rest of the primaries even after the nominee is decided.

[Michael Z]

I honestly think Lieberman will have a good result in NH. Maybe not win, but do well enough to stay on.

To me Kucinich seems the most obvious candidate to drop out next. Sharpton is the far left's candidate of choice which leaves Kucinich without much of a platform.

[jravnsbo]

I think DE's primary is on FEb 3rd with other 6 of them?

Leiberman may not drop after NH but he'll surely drop 4 days later after the DE non-binding primary.

Kucinich probably won't last too much longer either.  He stands no real chance.

Sharpton will stay in even after the candidate is decided.  He was never a serious candidate, but he's been entertaining.  He's certainly raised his respectability.

None of the big 4 will drop until after a few of the southern primaries.

[Huckleberry Finn]

And I'm afraid that Dean is bullhead also. I think that he will be second in NH. After that he will continue his fall.

[© tweed]

I honestly think Lieberman will have a good result in NH. Maybe not win, but do well enough to stay on.

To me Kucinich seems the most obvious candidate to drop out next. Sharpton is the far left's candidate of choice which leaves Kucinich without much of a platform.

Kucinich could become thw white man's Sharpton.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I just wondered that Sharpton hasn't more popularity, because there are lot of Afro-Americans among Democrats. He should get about 10-20 percent in that way. Of course not in Iowa or New Hampshire but in South at least.

[jravnsbo]

well we haven't had any votes in states with big black populations for one.. and he's a racist for 2.


quote author=Huckleberry Finn link=board=5;threadid=454;start=0#msg16846 date=1074720640]
I just wondered that Sharpton hasn't more popularity, because there are lot of Afro-Americans among Democrats. He should get about 10-20 percent in that way. Of course not in Iowa or New Hampshire but in South at least.

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[Gustaf]

I just wondered that Sharpton hasn't more popularity, because there are lot of Afro-Americans among Democrats. He should get about 10-20 percent in that way. Of course not in Iowa or New Hampshire but in South at least.

He does get 10-20% in the south.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Neither Kucinich or Sharpton are viable candidates anyway.

[zorkpolitics]

Lieberman drops out after Feb 3 Super Tuesday when he doesn't win a single state.  Dean is a foot note after NH but I don't think he figures it out until April, and then won't quit just so the others can't have HIS delegates.  Kerry, Clark and Edwards battle all the way to the convention, each winning various states, but with proportional awarding of delegates no one wins a majority.  Kucinich has already said his strategy is to go to the convention (with 4-5 delegates) and offer himslef as a comprimise on the second ballot (good plan!).  Sharpton is Sharpton, what would he do if he wasn't running?  He stays until the convention in hopes being a power broker so he can sell his delegates for something.

[jravnsbo]

Decent analysis.

If it is Kerry Dean Clark Edwards Lieberman

Dean might move into 2d in delegates, esp with superdelegates.  He then could continue to get around 20% in each state on the way except int eh south.  Plus yes Sharpton and Kucinich will stay and have delegates to get something.

Kerry has poor organizationa dn spent little time in feb 3 states and still needs money.

Clark has money and will do well on feb 3

Edwards really needs a win in SC on Feb 3.

Lieberman does look to be in tough shape after feb 3.

Lieberman drops out after Feb 3 Super Tuesday when he doesn't win a single state.  Dean is a foot note after NH but I don't think he figures it out until April, and then won't quit just so the others can't have HIS delegates.  Kerry, Clark and Edwards battle all the way to the convention, each winning various states, but with proportional awarding of delegates no one wins a majority.  Kucinich has already said his strategy is to go to the convention (with 4-5 delegates) and offer himslef as a comprimise on the second ballot (good plan!).  Sharpton is Sharpton, what would he do if he wasn't running?  He stays until the convention in hopes being a power broker so he can sell his delegates for something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good old horse trading!

[jravnsbo]

--no big surprise.  Go Al go!

Longshot Dem. Sharpton to Stay in Race    

WASHINGTON - Al Sharpton (news - web sites), an asterisk in polls measuring support for the Democratic presidential candidates, told the head of the national party Thursday that he's in this campaign for the long haul.


In a letter to Democratic National Committee (news - web sites) Chairman Terry McAuliffe, Sharpton said he is staying in the race to ensure the Democratic Party platform reflects minority concerns.

"I will continue to campaign vigorously until the last day of the convention to give voice to all Americans who have been too long taken for granted by inside-the-Beltway policies and politicians," wrote Sharpton, one of two blacks in the race until Carol Moseley Braun (news - web sites) withdrew last week.


McAuliffe has said he hopes the Democratic field, currently at seven, will be trimmed by early February, when several states hold primaries or caucuses.


The reverend from New York praised McAuliffe's proposal for a March 25 event with party leaders, which Sharpton characterized as a chance to raise money to retire the debts that losing candidates incurred over their campaigns. The DNC, however, had a different take on the so-called "unity" event, at which former presidents Clinton and Carter are expected to appear.


"It is a DNC fund-raiser for the DNC and the nominee," said DNC spokesman Tony Welch.


Campaign finance law prohibits national political parties from paying more than $5,000 to each of the candidates.


Sharpton has run his presidential campaign on a shoestring budget compared to the major candidates, who have raised and spent millions of dollars. Federal Election Commission (news - web sites) reports show Sharpton had raised $258,729 through September.


Sharpton doesn't travel nearly as often as other candidates but has appeared in most of the debates, causing a stir more than once by challenging his rivals on issues of race or the Iraq war.

[English]

Lieberman will drop out after NH. If he polls badly there, which he will, there's no way he's going to carry on to sustain further humiliation! My money's on Lieberman. Edwards will win.

[jravnsbo]

lieberman said yesterday he is in through feb 3, NH is only his first stae, and other states are more to his positions.

Edwards- after the debate fumbles he had, good run him.  Maybe he can have some onthe job training.

Lieberman will drop out after NH. If he polls badly there, which he will, there's no way he's going to carry on to sustain further humiliation! My money's on Lieberman. Edwards will win.