Full breakout of Recent AP Poll (Bush 46/Kerry 45)

[The Vorlon]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pdf/media/mr040614-3tbrevised.pdf

[CARLHAYDEN]

Very interesting.

I'm gaining more respect of ispos after every poll.

Given that this poll is of registered rather than likely voters, it probably understates Bush's support by a point or two.

The lagging understanding of the public of the improving economy also bodes well for Bush.  When the public catches on in a few months (say September), Bush should do even better.

[Umengus]

Kerry-Edwards: 47%
Bush-Cheney:44%
NAder: 6%


Kerry-Guephardt: 45%
Bush-Cheney: 47%
Nader: 6%

Kerry-Clark:43%
Bush- Cheney: 47%
NAder: 6%

Kerry-Vilsack: 43%
Bush-Cheney: 47%
Nader: 7%


Do you understand why I support Edwards for VP?


President Job approval: 48/50 (27-12-9-2-13-7-30)
Good news for Bush on economy but not good on war on terror.

A small problem for this poll?: 49% democrat and 42% republican and 8% indy

[The Vorlon]

Kerry-Edwards: 47%
Bush-Cheney:44%
NAder: 6%


Kerry-Guephardt: 45%
Bush-Cheney: 47%
Nader: 6%

Kerry-Clark:43%
Bush- Cheney: 47%
NAder: 6%

Kerry-Vilsack: 43%
Bush-Cheney: 47%
Nader: 7%


Do you understand why I support Edwards for VP?


President Job approval: 48/50 (27-12-9-2-13-7-30)
Good news for Bush on economy but not good on war on terror.

A small problem for this poll?: 49% democrat and 42% republican and 8% indy

The question they asked is very similar to the one Gallup uses, and yes +7 to the Dems side is a bit high.

The way ipsos does their surveys they let this particular element "float" - they don't weight to it which, on balance is the correct choice IMHO, however others certainly disagree on that point.

The "correct" answer is about +2 or +3 to the Dem side, and Ipsos now an then misses left, now and then misses right, so I would not get too concerned about it.

Unlike the odd other poll there is nothing "systemic" in ipsos driving the miss to the left all the time.

The interesting numbers to me, as always this cycle, was the strength of support.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Please note the breakout of the strong/weak supporters.

Bush's support is primary "strong' while Kerry's is about equally divided between "strong" and "weak."

If you were to examine the "strong" Kerry supporters I think you will actually see that they are mostly what I call "Deaniacs," whereas the "weak" supporters are mostly traditional Democrats.