Full breakout of Recent AP Poll (Bush 46/Kerry 45)

[CARLHAYDEN]

Very interesting.

I'm gaining more respect of ispos after every poll.

Given that this poll is of registered rather than likely voters, it probably understates Bush's support by a point or two.

The lagging understanding of the public of the improving economy also bodes well for Bush.  When the public catches on in a few months (say September), Bush should do even better.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Please note the breakout of the strong/weak supporters.

Bush's support is primary "strong' while Kerry's is about equally divided between "strong" and "weak."

If you were to examine the "strong" Kerry supporters I think you will actually see that they are mostly what I call "Deaniacs," whereas the "weak" supporters are mostly traditional Democrats.