Rhode Island Senate Primary official thread

[MarkWarner08]

This race is so important in so many different ways. Simply put, with a Chafee victory, taking back the Senate becomes nearly impossible.

If Laffey wins, it'll mean Democrats will start the cycle off with 46 seats. They'll then likely win in Pennsylvania, Montana and Ohio. This leaves Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia and New Jersey to  decide the fate of the upper chamber.

The DSCC won't have to spend a dime in NJ because of Menendez's warchest. That means the $5 million they save in RI will go to defeating Jim Talent, George Allen and Bob Corker.

At this juncture, I highly doubt the Senate will flip, but if Chafee wins, it'll become nearly impossible.

[MarkWarner08]

46% reporting:

Chafee   54%
Laffey     46%

Unfortunately, it looks like Chafee is going to win.

Those results are coming in too fast. I don't trust them.

[MarkWarner08]

Those results are coming in too fast. I don't trust them.

Ummmmmmmm............OK.

I'm used to a slower progression of results.  I'm becoming more and more distraught over a Chafee win.

[MarkWarner08]

Is this the next Dewey defeats Truman?

According to Hotline, "Steve Laffey's campaign aides will be stunned if they lose." Hotline also quotes Laffey's team as saying they've "hit all their target numbers in every targeted precinct."

[MarkWarner08]

Does anybody find it odd that only one site has over 10% of the RI vote counted?

[MarkWarner08]

Damn independents!!

Damn those smart Republicans who knew that a Laffey victory would jeopardize their party's control of the Senate!!!

[MarkWarner08]

If this margin keeps up, I would consider it a fairly impressive winning margin for Chafee, all things considering.

I'm speechless. This is a huge victory for the NRSC, the 72 Hour Task Force and the GOP's hope of holding the Congress. This will hurt the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the media has been hyping.

[MarkWarner08]

Is this the next Dewey defeats Truman?

According to Hotline, "Steve Laffey's campaign aides will be stunned if they lose." Hotline also quotes Laffey's team as saying they've "hit all their target numbers in every targeted precinct."

Which begs the question, what the **** were Laffey's target numbers?

[MarkWarner08]

62% of 515 Reporting
   LINCOLN CHAFEE    21,879    53%
   STEPHEN LAFFEY    19,099    47%

Is it too late for Laffey to close?

[MarkWarner08]

Supposedly Cranston and Warwick will come in last, Laffey's strong areas.

Wasn't Chafee the mayor of Warwick? If so, Laffey's cooked.

[MarkWarner08]

If Chafee wins by 51%-49%, we're going to have to put out a missing person alert for Pat Toomey.

[MarkWarner08]

It's OVER. Cranston already 1/5 in and Chafee's strongholds still aren't all in.

[MarkWarner08]

Cranston: 80k
Warwick: 85k

[MarkWarner08]

a great day!

November 7, 2006 - Senator-elect Whitehouse

[MarkWarner08]

a great day!

November 7, 2006 - Senator-elect Whitehouse

I am not saying that that will make November 7th great. I am just showing Walter that his "great day" will not reoccur.

This primary just cost the DSCC $5 million.

[MarkWarner08]

73% in; Chaffee is back on 54%

Warwick has probably reported

Mayor Warwick
Democrat
0% of 53 Reporting

Warwick's not in yet. This race is OVER.

I seriously underestimated the RNC's 72 hour taskforce.

[MarkWarner08]

a great day!

November 7, 2006 - Senator-elect Whitehouse

I am not saying that that will make November 7th great. I am just showing Walter that his "great day" will not reoccur.

This primary just cost the DSCC $5 million.

And you'll be rewarded with a pickup.

And it'll cost us a pickup in Tennessee or Missouri.

[MarkWarner08]

73% in; Chaffee is back on 54%

Warwick has probably reported

As far as I can tell, nothing is in from Warwick.

then it is over...now to maryland

Warwick's coming last. I thought Laffey had "hit all his targets."

[MarkWarner08]

73% in; Chaffee is back on 54%

Warwick has probably reported

As far as I can tell, nothing is in from Warwick.

then it is over...now to maryland

Warwick's coming last. I thought Laffey had "hit all his targets."

Sort of sounds like Kerry in 2004.  But not to bring up bad memories. 

If you wanted to be mean, you should have brought up Gore in 2000. That one really stung.

[MarkWarner08]

I predicted a 53-47 Chafee victory.  I will count that as being nearly accurate.  Now, let's see if I'm accurate in Maryland.

Wow. Those are some good prognosticating skills.

[MarkWarner08]

If looks like a Chafee win by a health margin.  I'm predicting Chafee wins re-election.

Whitehouse wins by 2%.

[MarkWarner08]

Now Chafee and Santorum will be able to continue their work together in the new Senate in Jan/07.

I don't think Santorum is looking for a new Chief of Staff.

Will it make you happy that they'll both be out of work in Jan/07?

[MarkWarner08]

Chafee!  Chafee!  Chafee!

I am so friggin proud of my party tonight!  Lets hope the good news holds sweeps over AZ-8 too

And you have every right to be proud.  We came through in the crunch, never mind the predominant party ideology, which I support by the way, but we came through in the name of political expediency and common sense, because we want to keep this RI Senate seat in GOP hands.

Linc Chafee, the man for the times.

Now on to victory in November!!!!!!

Linc Chafee's going to lose -- but so will McCaskill and Webb. This race is going to cost the DSCC a lot of cash and manpower.

This is the end of Jim Webb. Webb can't afford to run a TV campaign and the DSCC can't afford to help him.

[MarkWarner08]

Lets hope the good news holds sweeps over AZ-8 too

No, I think they are a little more interested in being Republicans out there.

Mark my words: Graf will win this race. If you think the bllodbath between the Club for Growth and the NRSC was bad, check out the battle between the NRCC and the 8th's Republican establishment.

[MarkWarner08]

Chafee!  Chafee!  Chafee!

I am so friggin proud of my party tonight!  Lets hope the good news holds sweeps over AZ-8 too

And you have every right to be proud.  We came through in the crunch, never mind the predominant party ideology, which I support by the way, but we came through in the name of political expediency and common sense, because we want to keep this RI Senate seat in GOP hands.

Linc Chafee, the man for the times.

Now on to victory in November!!!!!!

Linc Chafee's going to lose -- but so will McCaskill and Webb. This race is going to cost the DSCC a lot of cash and manpower.

This is the end of Jim Webb. Webb can't afford to run a TV campaign and the DSCC can't afford to help him.

This is not at all true. Webb has raised over $2 million since the primary and has major fundraisers coming up. One will be hosted by Stephen King and John Grisham. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are also both slated to do fundraising for him. Bill Clinton has agreed to a major fundraiser which will probably be in early October. His fundraising has accelerated since the "macaca" incident.  Webb dosen't need to match Allen dollar-for-dollar to win. He just needs to stay competitive in funds, and it looks like he is going to that at the very least.

I'm just saying it's going to hurt him because there will be less in the way of national funding.

McCaskill will probably suffer more than Webb.