Rhode Island Senate Primary official thread

[sethm0]

   The Providence Journal is reporting that polling places are running low on "disaffiliated" forms. This could be very big news for those of us who can't wait another four hours to hear the final results.

  Independents are allowed to vote in party primaries but as soon as they do they are automatically registered as being members of that party. Polling places in RI have disaffiliation forms so that after independents vote they can return to being registered independents. Silly bureaucracy.

 The fact that polling places are running out of these forms probably means that more independents are voting than had been expected.
 
 Convensional wisdom would suggest that high independent turnout benefits Chafee. On the other hand, the first city to start running low on forms today was Cranston - Laffey's home base.

 So we'll see...

[sethm0]

 1. The new word form RI is that turnout is suprisingly low. Conventional wisdom says this benefits Laffey.

 2. Laffey is also independently wealthy, to the tune of about 13 million. I don't know if he'd be willing to spend his own money in the gneral like Chafee would, but it's possible.

[sethm0]

  Beginning at 9:15 eastern you can watch the results come in at http://www.elections.ri.gov/

[sethm0]

Just as a little FYI, the supporting of Chafee by the national party will probably have little effect monetarily on the other Senate seats that Republicans are trying to hold this year.

Santorum (PA) certainly can self-fund.  So can Talent (MO), DeWine (OH) and Burns (MT), though DeWine and Burns perhaps a little less so.  Down the scale, Allen (VA) certainly can and Corker (TN) will undoubtedly be spending his own money soon.

Where this has any effect is on potential Republican pick ups, like Kean (NJ), Steele (MD) even though he has a lead in cash-on-hand right now and Kennedy (MN).

 This is true, though the NRSC has the added benefit of being able to run really nasty negative ads without the Republican candidate having to say they approve of the message. So this makes NRSC money at least somewhat important.

[sethm0]

 If Whitehouse or the Dems were turning out people to vote for Laffey they did an incredible job of keeping it quiet. In a state as small as Rhode Island this is near impossible.

 Looking to the general, I think Whitehouse is a slight favorite against Chafee unless Chafee wins big tonight. Emphasis on slight.

 Whitehouse is a stronger favorite against Laffey, but don't underestimate Laffey. He would break 40 for sure and at least make Whitehouse work for a victory.

[sethm0]

 Yeah, my sources citing low turnout were obviously wrong. If we're at 35,000 with 50% reporting, this is going to be huge.

[sethm0]

 Cranston is Laffey's home base, Warwick is Chafee's.