Rhode Island Senate Primary official thread

[Deano963]

The Dems have a superior candidate no matter what. Instead of wasting money to defend Chafee, why not go with the Republican in the race and admit that we have no shot in November?

This is true. If Chafee wins tonight, the GOP is going to blow a few million dollars in Rhode Island so that he can lose the general with 47 percent of the vote.

Doesn't make much sense to me.

Actually, Lincoln Chaffee has repeatedly gauranteed that if he wins the primary, he will spend as much of his family fortune (he's very rich) as necessary to win the general. He only trails Whitehouse by two points right now. So, basically, republicans who are supporting Laffey are just plain retarded b/c Laffey has no chance AND will have a fraction of the funds Chaffee would have in the general. The NRSC probably wouldn't have to spend anything if Chafee wins the primary.

[Deano963]

The NRSC probably wouldn't have to spend anything if Chafee wins the primary.

I'm sure they will- look at all the money they've poured into the primary. Either way, I'm looking forward to Senator Whitehouse.

 

Why on Earth would they blow any money when Chaffee is going to spend whatever amount necessary to win from his own fortune and they have six other vulnerable Senate seats to defend? Even Liddy Dole is not quite that stupid.

[Deano963]

Why on Earth would they blow any money when Chaffee is going to spend whatever amount necessary to win from his own fortune

The national GOP has said that it's not sending any money into Rhode Island if Laffey wins the primary. That would seem to imply that they are planning to send money into Rhode Island if Chafee is the nominee.

It WOULD..... IF Chaffee wasn't a gazillionaire in his own right who has said he will spend whatever necessary to win in the general. Therefore it dosen't say anything at all conclusive about what the NRSC plans to do if Chaffee wins. Laffey would need money from the NRSC if he won the primary, Chaffee would not.

[Deano963]

Just as a little FYI, the supporting of Chafee by the national party will probably have little effect monetarily on the other Senate seats that Republicans are trying to hold this year.

Santorum (PA) certainly can self-fund.  So can Talent (MO), DeWine (OH) and Burns (MT), though DeWine and Burns perhaps a little less so.  Down the scale, Allen (VA) certainly can and Corker (TN) will undoubtedly be spending his own money soon.

Where this has any effect is on potential Republican pick ups, like Kean (NJ), Steele (MD) even though he has a lead in cash-on-hand right now and Kennedy (MN).

This is not really true at all. When you say "self-fund", you make it sound as if they are wealthy and can personally bankroll their campaigns. That is not the case.

Talent and Dewine may have larger campaign accounts than their challengers, true, but not so much that they can weather the $7 million in ad buys the DSCC has planned for each of these races without help from the NRSC. It makes a lot of difference if the national party dosen't have to sqaunder money on Chaffee and spend it on other races instead.

[Deano963]

From "The Hotline":

" Steve Laffey's campaign aides will be stunned if they lose. Campaign sources say they hit all their target numbers in every targeted precinct etc, assuming a turnout of 50 to 55k voters.

These are just targeting predictors, not vote counts, so anything can happen, but everything has gone as planned for their turnout operation.

The Secretary of State reports that precincts across the state ran out of the more than 20K Unaffiliation forms they distributed. That suggests a least three possibilities:

1. Independents and Democrats voted for Chafee and then re-established their independent credentials

2. Voters who normally vote D in municipal elections switched to R for the purposes of choosing Laffey or and then switched back

3. GOP voters switched to the Democratic Party for the purposes of the election and had no interest in the GOP primary.

Or all of the above. "

I highly doubt #3 is happening. It's either 1 or 2 or a combination of both. I think if Whitehouse and the Dems were having voters switch to independent to vote for Laffey in the primary, therefore ensuring a Whitehouse win, we would have heard about it.

[Deano963]

How long till the results start to come in?

Should be shortly after 9.

[Deano963]

http://wpri.conversent.net/election.html

Chaffee 10,033 - 54%
Laffey - 8,577 - 46%

27% of 515 precincts reporting

[Deano963]

These results do not necessarily mean Laffey has already lost. It depends on which precincts haven't reported yet. Laffey could still win this.

[Deano963]

Now Chafee and Santorum will be able to continue their work together in the new Senate in Jan/07.

Yeh....because I bet they agree on a  lot of things....

[Deano963]

Chafee!  Chafee!  Chafee!

I am so friggin proud of my party tonight!  Lets hope the good news holds sweeps over AZ-8 too

And you have every right to be proud.  We came through in the crunch, never mind the predominant party ideology, which I support by the way, but we came through in the name of political expediency and common sense, because we want to keep this RI Senate seat in GOP hands.

Linc Chafee, the man for the times.

Now on to victory in November!!!!!!

Linc Chafee's going to lose -- but so will McCaskill and Webb. This race is going to cost the DSCC a lot of cash and manpower.

This is the end of Jim Webb. Webb can't afford to run a TV campaign and the DSCC can't afford to help him.

This is not at all true. Webb has raised over $2 million since the primary and has major fundraisers coming up. One will be hosted by Stephen King and John Grisham. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are also both slated to do fundraising for him. Bill Clinton has agreed to a major fundraiser which will probably be in early October. His fundraising has accelerated since the "macaca" incident.  Webb dosen't need to match Allen dollar-for-dollar to win. He just needs to stay competitive in funds, and it looks like he is going to that at the very least.

[Deano963]

Chafee!  Chafee!  Chafee!

I am so friggin proud of my party tonight!  Lets hope the good news holds sweeps over AZ-8 too

And you have every right to be proud.  We came through in the crunch, never mind the predominant party ideology, which I support by the way, but we came through in the name of political expediency and common sense, because we want to keep this RI Senate seat in GOP hands.

Linc Chafee, the man for the times.

Now on to victory in November!!!!!!

Linc Chafee's going to lose -- but so will McCaskill and Webb. This race is going to cost the DSCC a lot of cash and manpower.

This is the end of Jim Webb. Webb can't afford to run a TV campaign and the DSCC can't afford to help him.

This is not at all true. Webb has raised over $2 million since the primary and has major fundraisers coming up. One will be hosted by Stephen King and John Grisham. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are also both slated to do fundraising for him. Bill Clinton has agreed to a major fundraiser which will probably be in early October. His fundraising has accelerated since the "macaca" incident.  Webb dosen't need to match Allen dollar-for-dollar to win. He just needs to stay competitive in funds, and it looks like he is going to that at the very least.

I'm just saying it's going to hurt him because there will be less in the way of national funding.

McCaskill will probably suffer more than Webb.

Well DUH but that dosen't mean Webb is finished.

Also Whitehouse starts out with a large COH advantage over Chaffee. And everyone seems to be overlooking the most obvious - Lincoln Chaffee, an incumbent, won with barely 54% of the vote. That is truly terrible for an incumbent. He needs the Laffey voters to turn out for him in order to win and I see no gaurantee that he will get them. They probably don't care who wins between Whitehouse and Chaffee.

[Deano963]

Anyone know of a GOOD site to get an AZ-08 update? This azcongresswatch site is pathetic.

[Deano963]

I'm starting to feel sorry for the Laffey.

Awwwwwwwwwww

Ya gotta admire the guy knowing he fought so hard to win knowing full well that he would have been destroyed in the general.