Kerry +10 in Michigan

[lonestar]

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MI040701president.pdf

Kerry: 51%
Bush: 41%

[millwx]

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MI040701president.pdf

Kerry: 51%
Bush: 41%

Incidentally, in a related thread there was some discussion of which "toss-up" states may not really be "toss-ups".  I was using 3% as a cut-off.  That is, if an average of recent polls shows a candidate up by 3-5% in a given state, it is a non-toss-up toss-up.  The lead is less than 5%, satisfying most people's definition of a toss-up, but it is substantial and/or consistent enough such that the candidate in the lead probably really does have a few percentage point lead.

I mention this because, using the poll average over the past month, this latest poll brings the Michigan average to Kerry +3%.  One poll, of course, doesn't dictate.  So, no one can say with certainty whether or not Michigan is a toss-up now.  But, I would argue that it is not.  It is very close, but not a tossup.

[© tweed]

Kerry ain't up ten in Michigan.  More like 4.

[Reds4]

He's not up ten in Michigan but its definitely not tied. Michigan is not even close to a tossup. I have it safe Kerry. He wins by 6% in a tied popular vote.

[Dave from Michigan]

Kerry won't win michigan by 6% more like 3%

[Josh]

Eh you can never trust the polls anyway, cause half say Bush and half say Kerry.  I agree, 10% is a bit unreasonable.

[agcatter]

I would say the same 5% Bush lost in 2000 by.

[Rococo4]

Bush is going to win the election.......but he will not carry Michigan.  This poll seems a tad high for F. Kerry, though.

[Smash255]

This poll seems a tad high, but I would believe this poll before that rinane Fox Bush +2 poll.  I would say its in the 5-7 range or so.  The Arab vote in MI is really going o hurt Bush's chances of picking up the state.  He had approx 75% of the Arab vote in 200, heisn't going to get half thhat this year & he  hasn't made enough inroads with the other groups in MI to overcome that

[nomorelies]

Kerry will win Michigan by something like 50-51 to Bush 45-46. This poll is bias towards Kerry. I suspect that he leads by around 4-5% at the moment. But all the people on the forum know that if Kerry is to win he must take Michigan.

[Beet]

With so few voters undecided, its really going to be about the GOTV on election day. That is if the race stays close. Bush will work towards racking up big majorities in Grand Rapids and Macomb County, as well as the rest of the state, and keep down turnout and/or margins in Ann Arbor, Flint, and Detriot, though it would be a waste of resources to try to keep down margins in the latter. Democrats will have to rely on two declining cities (Detriot & Flint) experiencing steady long-term out migration towards the South to pull it through yet another election. But in the long term they'll have to appeal to suburban voters.