Toss Up state poll averages

[mddem2004]

Of the seven states that this site lists as "Toss Up" states according to recent polls, 7 are states that Gore won (for a total of 77 EV's) and 4 are states that Bush won (for a total of 56 EV's).

I averaged all the polls listed for these states (dropping polls prior to May because they are getting dated) and came up with the following averages by state.

Kerry Leads:              Bush Leads:            DEAD HEAT
PA       46.83 - 44       OH    44.5 - 43.66   OR  44.4 - 44.4  
W. VA  45.66 - 45.33  FL     47.5 - 46.75
NH       47 - 43.66          
MI        46.37 - 42.5
WI       46 - 43
MN       48 - 42
IA         47 - 45
NM       47 - 44

Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations???

[mddem2004]

Is this an average of the total poll respondents per state or the average of each poll result?

Average of the poll percentage totals by state (dropping any prior to May).

[mddem2004]

Vorlorn,
Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know.....

[mddem2004]

Kerry Leads:              Bush Leads:            DEAD HEAT
PA       46.83 - 44       OH    44.5 - 43.66   OR  44.4 - 44.4  
W. VA  45.66 - 45.33  FL     47.5 - 46.75
NH       47 - 43.66          
MI        46.37 - 42.5
WI       46 - 43
MN       48 - 42
IA         47 - 45
NM       47 - 44

Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations???

mddem, I pretty much agree.  I've apparently got too much time on my hands ...I'm tracking the same thing, updating as polls come in.  However, I'm also applying a methodology to parse out the undecideds and a segment of the Nader voters.  This, of course, helps Kerry.  Other than this, I've also avoided all subjectivity of judging polls and kept all polls in my analysis.  This helps both candidates in different places.  For example, Rasmussen and ARG would keep Kerry in the game in FL, while the Badger Poll keeps Bush up there in Wisconsin.  I also may be using a slightly different cutoff date on the polls than you are.  So, here are my numbers (WITHOUT my Nader/undecided interpretation, as that could complicate things and make for some disagreements)...

PA: Kerry +1.8%
WV: Bush +0.4%
NH: Kerry +2.1%
MI: Kerry +2.5%
WI: Kerry +1.2%
MN: Kerry +5.0%
IA: Kerry +4.5%
NM: Kerry +3.3%
OH: Bush +1.2%
FL: Bush +3.2%
OR: Kerry +4.1%

So, my only disagreements with you are WV and OR.  You have WV to Kerry.  My interpretation would yield the same thing, because it's so close, but the straight-up numbers I have make it a tie or slight Bush lean.  On the other hand, OR isn't as close as some keep pretending.  Yes, my objectivity forced me to include the likely poor Zogby polls which have Kerry up by more.  But, I've also included the questionable Rasmussen poll which has Bush up 1% there.  In fact, my 4% Kerry lead there is dead on with Public Opinion Strategies... a good firm.  I'm tired of hearing all this hoopla about how close OR is.  Ditto MN.  They are certainly not strong Kerry, but they are significant leans that way.  They will not go to Bush unless he wins the national PV by 5+%, in which case, they're irrelevant anyway, as Bush will then take all of the other above states for, effectively, a landslide.

Incidentally, my interpretation of the Nader/undecideds is enough to push WV to Kerry +1.5% and OH to Kerry +0.7%.  However, Bush has ticked up in recent national polls, so these may well remain in his column... in fact, he may even have pushed WI and PA to a tie... and it's almost unarguable that Bush is ahead in FL (my interpreted results still keep him up 1.7%, the two oldest polls in my poll average are Kerry-friendly, and we have Bush's recent small bump in national polls... Bush is probably about +5% in FL).

Great analysis, I won't argue against any of it! I merely used May 1 as a cut off date and uncluded all polls, good/bad and ugly for my numbers figuring they will ave each other out. I really hope you are right about Oregon, you probably are because I doubt Nader will get the relativley strong support there this time. In fact I predict Nader will get no more than 1% of the vote nationally anyway if he's lucky. W. VA is another one that I think will confound pollsters until we get closer to the election. The old Roosevelt era Dem base is dying off faster than it can be replaced sadly.....