Toss Up state poll averages

[millwx]

Kerry Leads:              Bush Leads:            DEAD HEAT
PA       46.83 - 44       OH    44.5 - 43.66   OR  44.4 - 44.4  
W. VA  45.66 - 45.33  FL     47.5 - 46.75
NH       47 - 43.66          
MI        46.37 - 42.5
WI       46 - 43
MN       48 - 42
IA         47 - 45
NM       47 - 44

Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations???

mddem, I pretty much agree.  I've apparently got too much time on my hands ...I'm tracking the same thing, updating as polls come in.  However, I'm also applying a methodology to parse out the undecideds and a segment of the Nader voters.  This, of course, helps Kerry.  Other than this, I've also avoided all subjectivity of judging polls and kept all polls in my analysis.  This helps both candidates in different places.  For example, Rasmussen and ARG would keep Kerry in the game in FL, while the Badger Poll keeps Bush up there in Wisconsin.  I also may be using a slightly different cutoff date on the polls than you are.  So, here are my numbers (WITHOUT my Nader/undecided interpretation, as that could complicate things and make for some disagreements)...

PA: Kerry +1.8%
WV: Bush +0.4%
NH: Kerry +2.1%
MI: Kerry +2.5%
WI: Kerry +1.2%
MN: Kerry +5.0%
IA: Kerry +4.5%
NM: Kerry +3.3%
OH: Bush +1.2%
FL: Bush +3.2%
OR: Kerry +4.1%

So, my only disagreements with you are WV and OR.  You have WV to Kerry.  My interpretation would yield the same thing, because it's so close, but the straight-up numbers I have make it a tie or slight Bush lean.  On the other hand, OR isn't as close as some keep pretending.  Yes, my objectivity forced me to include the likely poor Zogby polls which have Kerry up by more.  But, I've also included the questionable Rasmussen poll which has Bush up 1% there.  In fact, my 4% Kerry lead there is dead on with Public Opinion Strategies... a good firm.  I'm tired of hearing all this hoopla about how close OR is.  Ditto MN.  They are certainly not strong Kerry, but they are significant leans that way.  They will not go to Bush unless he wins the national PV by 5+%, in which case, they're irrelevant anyway, as Bush will then take all of the other above states for, effectively, a landslide.

Incidentally, my interpretation of the Nader/undecideds is enough to push WV to Kerry +1.5% and OH to Kerry +0.7%.  However, Bush has ticked up in recent national polls, so these may well remain in his column... in fact, he may even have pushed WI and PA to a tie... and it's almost unarguable that Bush is ahead in FL (my interpreted results still keep him up 1.7%, the two oldest polls in my poll average are Kerry-friendly, and we have Bush's recent small bump in national polls... Bush is probably about +5% in FL).

[millwx]

Great analysis, I won't argue against any of it!

Well, I'm TRYING to be as objective as possible.  Probably about 90% of the people on this board have a strong choice/opinion between Kerry and Bush.  And too often than not, I see people injecting their preference into their analysis.  It is, frankly, pathetic.  I'm not trying to sound holier than thou, but simply... one's personal opinion, bias and wishes aren't going to make a prediction come true!  So, I'm simply taking a poll average.  And even my "interpretation" isn't subjectively/overly pro-Kerry (full disclosure... I am very much a centrist - the "political compass" put me damned near zero and zero!... but I am unabashedly against Bush in this election)... I'm not using obscene pro-Kerry ratios to break down the undecideds, nor am I giving him all the Nader votes.  However, with Nader in most polls but on few ballots, Kerry does get a bit better in my "interpretation".  So... with OR at Kerry +4.3% in the poll average straight-up, I don't believe I'm being at all biased saying that OR is just NOT a true "battleground".  Unless there is a specific focus on Oregon by Bush... if Bush runs Oregon to dead-even, the race is already over, Bush wins big.  Otherwise, if the race remains tight, there is no question, Kerry takes Oregon.  Period.  Same with Minnesota.  Same with Iowa.

[millwx]

Washington isn't a swing state.

You're correct.  That's why it wasn't in "mddem2004"'s original list.  Nor did I include it.  The latest poll average, straight-up, no interpretation, no subjectivity in the selection of the polls, using all polls from the state since June 1st, has Kerry up just over 5%.  Close?  Yes.  A battleground or swing state?  No, not really.

Some people are saying Bush can win Washington.  Can he?  Absolutely!  But he needs to gain another 5%, or more.  If he does that, and the trend is nationwide, the election will have been long since over, as several other key states (like PA) will fall to Bush.  So, WA absolutely is not a battleground state.  I view battleground states as states where the election will be decided.  "Close" states that are not within 3% in a poll average are not battleground states... because if the person behind catches up in those states then that person is clearly well ahead electorally (in a snapshot on any given day).  In other words, that person took the electoral lead long before he caught up in the "close", non-battleground state.  AR (Bush), CO (Bush), VA (Bush), MN (Kerry), NM (Kerry), WA (Kerry), OR (Kerry) and IA (Kerry) are the best examples (leader has a lead of 3-5%).  These are all close states, but none of them are battlegrounds (subjectively, I disagree and would say that NM is, but the numbers speak for themselves... Kerry is up 3.3% there).