Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa.
I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington. Jobs are finally starting to return. The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth. Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here. Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office. Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration.
Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington.