1992: Tsongas vs. Bush vs. Perot

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Let's say that Bill Clinton admitted having an affair with Jennifer Flowers after the New Hampshire primary and pulls out of the race, Former Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachussetts picks off where he started and wins the Democratic nomination. Tsongas selects Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey as his running mate to attract Independents and Republicans. How would Tsongas have gone against Bush and Perot? Would Tsongas have won? Maps please.

[MarkWarner08]

I think Perot could've had a shot at winning that race if he didn't implode.

[Lincoln Republican]

Although Bush does not defeat Clinton, he does defeat Tsongas.

Bush/Quayle                271
Tsongas/Kerrey           245
Perot/Stockdale             22

[Nym90]

Tsongas would've won. Bush was still very unpopular and that wouldn't have changed depending on who the Democratic nominee is. His approval rating actually got down to 29 percent at one point during the summer according to Gallup.

Also, despite being from Massachusetts, Tsongas wasn't all that liberal. He was somewhat of a libertarian Democrat, very much of a fiscal centrist.

Bush would've done better in the South, probably sweeping the entire region, but everything else would've stayed pretty well the same.

[Dr. Cynic]

I think in the end, Paul Tsongas may have gotten by. I think he being a centrist Democrat, and by picking Bob Kerrey, a war hero, he covers his bases very well.

I don't think he'd have been able to be a "rock star" President like Clinton, and thus, that would give Perot some electoral votes.

Keep in mind, if we follow what happened in real life, Tsongas died in 1995. Now, I'm not saying that he would, but it could happen. Would Bob Kerrey have been as sucessful or moreso than Clinton in 1996?

[TomC]

Would Bob Kerrey have been as sucessful or moreso than Clinton in 1996?

If Dole were the nominee, Kerrey would have done abut the same- maybe not Arkansas. But Kerrey may have taken Nebraska.

[True Democrat]

Bush/Probably Tsongas

[adam]

In 1992, Bush lost more than Clinton won. I think just about any Democrat in that scenario could have won.

Perot/Tsongas