OH: Rasmussen: Brown(D) maintains lead on DeWine(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-09-13

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

Great. Up until recently I have seen this race as a tossup but I think its tough not to see it as a "Lean Dem" race now especially with Dewine being the incumbent and polling in the low 40s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be so sure to put this lean Dem, mason-dixon hasn't polled this race. Kerry was ahead in OH in every poll until Mason Dixon and he lost OH. It favors Brown, but DeWine still can win. The gas prices are the cheapest in this state.

[Eraserhead]

I wouldn't be so sure to put this lean Dem, mason-dixon hasn't polled this race. Kerry was ahead in OH in every poll until Mason Dixon and he lost OH. It favors Brown, but DeWine still can win. The gas prices are the cheapest in this state.

I'm not saying Dewine can't win but Kerry was not ahead in every Ohio poll until Mason-Dixon (at least I'm pretty sure he wasn't). I seem to recall plenty of them had him behind. I might be wrong though, I haven't checked recently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kerry ahead in Survey USA poll, ARG poll, Zogby poll. The only poll was Rasmussen, and Rasmussen has jumped around. But he was ahead in the majority of polls. I am just saying you shouldn't rely heavily until Mason Dixon comes out.

[Eraserhead]

Kerry ahead in Survey USA poll, ARG poll, Zogby poll.

Yeah thats only a couple polls though.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

There were actually tons of polls with Bush ahead...like Columbus Dispatch and Ras. itself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Mason Dixon is the most accurate pollster, it is still a tossup and the last time they had polled this race they had DeWine ahead. Columbus Dispatch broke down. I still will wait until Mason Dixon poll this race.

[Smash255]

But Mason Dixon is the most accurate pollster, it is still a tossup and the last time they had polled this race they had DeWine ahead. Columbus Dispatch broke down. I still will wait until Mason Dixon poll this race.

Just because ONE pollster hasn't polled this race doesn't mean its not a tssup.  the world doesn't revolve around ONE pollster.  Mason Dixon is good no question about it, but in 04 the other polls in Ohio were all over the place.  Some with Bush ahead some with Kerry ahead.  In this case, you have EVERYONE agreeing, EVERY POLL has Brown ahead.   Kerry never led in more than three consecutive polls in 04, with one of them being outside the margin of error, the majority of the polls showed Bush ahead in Ohio during the race.  Survey USA & ARG both had Bush up at this point in 04 as the link above shows.  Bush actually led in most of the 04 polls acrross the board in Ohio.

Now we have SEVEN consecutive polls showing Brown ahead (more than twice the amount any consecutive polls showed Kerry ahead in 04), FIVE of them by outside the margin of error (many more than what showed Kerry outside the margin of error)  To call this race a tossup just becausee one pollster hasn't polled it is a bit silly. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You keep relying on polls but yet Kean is ahead and you don't have him winning. Gas prices are falling and DeWine approval are rising I think this race is still too close to call. Mason-Dixon is the most accurate pollster and I will rely on it when it comes out. And Univ of Cincy has correctly called 30 statewide races since 1994 those are good enough numbers to me.

And by the way that Gallup poll has registered voters and his lead is cut to two points when they are factored in, that is a tossup to me. The others are based on likely voters not registered voters like Mason Dixon usually polls.

[Smash255]

You keep relying on polls but yet Kean is ahead and you don't have him winning. Gas prices are falling and DeWine approval are rising I think this race is still too close to call. Mason-Dixon is the most accurate pollster and I will rely on it when it comes out. And Univ of Cincy has correctly called 30 statewide races since 1994 those are good enough numbers to me.

And by the way that Gallup poll has registered voters and his lead is cut to two points when they are factored in, that is a tossup to me. The others are based on likely voters not registered voters like Mason Dixon usually polls.

1.  Likley voters are a better indication than registered voters

2.  Mson dixon actually usually uses Likley Voters, and they did in 04

3.  One ollster no matter how accurate isn't the end all be all.  the average method is generally more accurate.

4.  I never stated I only make my predictions based off polling.  they are a factor, no question, but I also look at the candidates themselves, how they are fairing, $$ advantages, how the particular state is trending, national mood in the state, partisan divide of the state, view of the President and his party in that state.  I do look at polling, and take it into consideration, but I also take all those factors as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallup uses registered voters and they polled right in 2004 with 274 electorial votes. Again, gas prices are down and Bush approvals are climbing anyone can win this race at this point. And the average of the polls in 2004 had Kerry ahead in FL, Fox News, Gallup, and Zogby had Kerry ahead and FL and that method was deeply flawed.

[Smash255]

Gallup uses registered voters and they polled right in 2004 with 274 electorial votes. Again, gas prices are down and Bush approvals are climbing anyone can win this race at this point. And the average of the polls in 2004 had Kerry ahead in FL, Fox News, Gallup, and Zogby had Kerry ahead and FL and that method was deeply flawed.

No wrong.  The average method actually had Bush ahead, the only way the average method had Kerry ahead is if you play with what polls you take.  taking the polls within the last week, Bush is up by 2.1, and I discount Zogby because he is crap, Bush 2.4.  Fox news's poll really threw the whole thing off a bit, and it would have been alittle under 4 with the average method.  However, generally speaking the average method is a better way than just using one pollster.  Their are going to be exceptions, but across the board the average emthod is usually better.  And when you don't have access to a particular poll it doesn't mean you can't make observations based on the polls you do have access to and its clea as a bell the polls show Brown ahead.  7 in a row, 5 outside the MOE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, I didn't say that DeWine will win, but more republicans are in Oh and they usually come out more than the polls indicate.  I say with gas prices falling to its lowest level and Bush campaigning for republicans Republicans chances will improve.

[opebo]

Again, I didn't say that DeWine will win, but more republicans are in Oh and they usually come out more than the polls indicate.  I say with gas prices falling to its lowest level and Bush campaigning for republicans Republicans chances will improve.

While I agree falling gas prices are good for Republican candidates in general, and will tend to reduce the strong disapproval of Bush, I think we are a long way from 'Bush campaigning for republicans' being a help!

[Smash255]

Again, I didn't say that DeWine will win, but more republicans are in Oh and they usually come out more than the polls indicate.  I say with gas prices falling to its lowest level and Bush campaigning for republicans Republicans chances will improve.

And you are basinng more republicans come out in Ohio than polls indicate off what exactly?  Past history doesn't indicate that.  And this is one state where Bush sure as hell can't help a Senate candidate.  his #'s in the state are absolutley horrid, the GOP in the state is in complete & utter shambles, and thats saying it nicely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are simply more republicans in the state of OH, that is basic math. If you think the Dems are going to sweep all the battleground states go right ahead I am not going to predict that.

[Smash255]

There are simply more republicans in the state of OH, that is basic math. If you think the Dems are going to sweep all the battleground states go right ahead I am not going to predict that.

Math from where??  based off what??

I never said the Dems will sweep all battleground states.  However he fact of the matter remains Ohio, 2006 and the GOP don't mix.  the economy of the state is piss poor, the falling gas prices don't mean much still piss poor with the drop.  Bush is not liked in the state at all, his #'s are just ebyond bad, their is MASSIVE GOP corruption in the state, Ney just pleading guilty made a bad situation worse.  the GOP is in power in everything in the state, and the people of the state are VERY VERY mad.  Its just going to be a BRUTAL year forthe GOP in Ohio on Election day, BRUTAL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Bush on the war on terror has remained rock solid and the Dems still haven't improved much there. It depends what people in the voting booth decided, there is no polll on election day and we will see.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is the current state of the Senate races:

Safe Democrat for now: WA, MI
Likely Democrat: PA, MN, MD
Lean Democrat: OH, MT, RI
Tossup: NJ, MO, TN
Lean Republican: none
Likely Republican: VA
Safe Republican for now: AZ, NV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no poll on election day so we will see who will win.

[Conan]

I think Brown will get a victory this fall.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do too but you can't underestimate southern OH, it will be close and DeWine can win that's all I am saying.