How Bush Wins An Uncontested Election In 2000
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  How Bush Wins An Uncontested Election In 2000
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Author Topic: How Bush Wins An Uncontested Election In 2000  (Read 4056 times)
Lincoln Republican
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« on: September 16, 2006, 11:46:23 PM »

The DUI coverage does not come out a few days before the election, and does therefore not cost Bush last minute defections to Gore.  As a consequence, Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin, and has a clear win on election night, 2000.

Bush lost these states in 2000 by razor thin margins
IA by 0.31%, NM by 0.06%, OR by 0.44%, WI by 0.22%.

As the DUI coverage does not come out, Bush wins these states by razor thin margins. 

Bush as well wins the popular vote by about 500,000 votes.

Florida remains in dispute, but since Bush has already won an electoral vote majority, the Florida results are not contested by either party.   

Bush/Cheney                                         276
Gore/Lieberman                                     237
Not Settled Election Night                        25

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Reignman
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2006, 05:05:51 PM »

2 things, although I generally agree with this:

1 - I don't think it cost Bush 1,000,000 votes.

2 - Another factor in last minute defections was "And the next thing you know, they'll be running Social Security like it's some kind of federal program."
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2006, 07:09:22 AM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.
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CPT MikeyMike
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2006, 07:26:33 AM »

Bush lost these states in 2000 by razor thin margins
IA by 0.31%, NM by 0.06%, OR by 0.44%, WI by 0.22%.

As the DUI coverage does not come out, Bush wins these states by razor thin margins. 

I bet Gore would still challenge the results of at least 2 of those states, if they were that close.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2006, 04:26:40 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2006, 07:10:18 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.

If Rove was accurate, that would mean that GW would have won a clear, comfortable, win in 2000.  We would have avoided the Florida debacle and all the acrimony.

GW would have taken at least 301 EV to 237 for Gore, and GW would have had a lead in the popular of about 2,500,000.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2006, 07:21:19 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.

If Rove was accurate, that would mean that GW would have won a clear, comfortable, win in 2000.  We would have avoided the Florida debacle and all the acrimony.

GW would have taken at least 301 EV to 237 for Gore, and GW would have had a lead in the popular of about 2,500,000.

I highly doubt all three million would have shown up if the DUI hadn't been there.  Maybe another million would show up.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2006, 07:30:09 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.

If Rove was accurate, that would mean that GW would have won a clear, comfortable, win in 2000.  We would have avoided the Florida debacle and all the acrimony.

GW would have taken at least 301 EV to 237 for Gore, and GW would have had a lead in the popular of about 2,500,000.

Words can't even describe how much I doubt that.
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Nym90
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2006, 12:13:55 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.

Well it is quite obviously in Karl Rove's interest to have people believe that, so the fact that he'd say that should be pretty meaningless in my opinion.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2016, 06:05:34 PM »

2 - Another factor in last minute defections was "And the next thing you know, they'll be running Social Security like it's some kind of federal program."
Out of curiosity--how many votes do you think that this gaffe and Gore's subsequent exploitation of this gaffe cost Bush in 2000 (in Florida and nationwide)?
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2016, 06:07:45 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.
The issue doesn't appear to have been the DUI itself, though. Rather, the issue appears to have been the fact that Bush was running on a platform of honesty and integrity and yet was unwilling to personally tell the American people about this old DUI of his. Indeed, the media (rather than Bush himself) ended up being the one who told the American people about Bush's old DUI.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2016, 06:13:21 PM »

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.
Frankly, Rove was probably trying to cover his boss's ass with that statement of his.
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2016, 10:32:43 PM »

I don't think it made much difference. Polls always tighten up before Election Day.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2016, 09:19:13 PM »

I don't think it made much difference. Polls always tighten up before Election Day.
Actually, this doesn't appear to have been true in 2012.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2016, 10:29:39 AM »

Okay we get it....the DUI not coming out wouldn't have gotten Bush an uncontested victory.

So now the question is what would have? I was thinking maybe the '01 recession starts a bit earlier...
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2016, 08:09:16 PM »

Okay we get it....the DUI not coming out wouldn't have gotten Bush an uncontested victory.

So now the question is what would have? I was thinking maybe the '01 recession starts a bit earlier...
Agreed. Also, having Bush avoid making that Social Security gaffe several days before the 2000 election might do the trick here. Smiley
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2016, 08:26:58 PM »

Wouldn't Bush/Christine Todd Whitman, with a much better Republican veep debate performance, make more sense and flip the places your map shows? Have Gore pick Bayh so Nader gets another 1% or so.
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tschandler
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2016, 12:26:32 PM »

Wouldn't Bush/Christine Todd Whitman, with a much better Republican veep debate performance, make more sense and flip the places your map shows? Have Gore pick Bayh so Nader gets another 1% or so.

I hear Whitman's name tossed out a lot in 2000 scenarios.  I know the anecdote about Cheney heading the search committee then Bush picking him but I was thirteen at the time.  Who were the media favorites for Bush's VP?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2016, 08:51:00 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2016, 08:55:03 PM by Kingpoleon »

Wouldn't Bush/Christine Todd Whitman, with a much better Republican veep debate performance, make more sense and flip the places your map shows? Have Gore pick Bayh so Nader gets another 1% or so.

I hear Whitman's name tossed out a lot in 2000 scenarios.  I know the anecdote about Cheney heading the search committee then Bush picking him but I was thirteen at the time.  Who were the media favorites for Bush's VP?

The media favorites were McCain, Huckabee(a la Clinton/Gore '92), Danforth, and Giuliani. Christine Todd Whitman, Gerald Ford, and Steve Forbes were all considered dark horses for it, either for a new turn with a new century, adding gravitas to the ticket, or rallying the base. Whitman would have crushed whoever Gore picked, and she might have led to butterflies where Bush is in Pennsylvania more and Gore wins Wisconsin, Iowa, and maybe Missouri with Gephardt on the ticket.

Bush might also contest Michigan and Ohio more with Whitman on the ticket.

No Social Security gaffe/DUI announcement:

300: R
213: D
25: UNCALLED
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2016, 07:52:30 PM »

Bush comes clean on DUI rather than have media report it. No social security gaffe. Net gain for Bush 1M (so Bush wins PV by 500K votes). Still close. Gore barely holds MN.

Bush/Cheney 48.4% / 301 EV
Gore/Lieberman 47.9% / 237 EV
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