Wouldn't Bush/Christine Todd Whitman, with a much better Republican veep debate performance, make more sense and flip the places your map shows? Have Gore pick Bayh so Nader gets another 1% or so.
I hear Whitman's name tossed out a lot in 2000 scenarios. I know the anecdote about Cheney heading the search committee then Bush picking him but I was thirteen at the time. Who were the media favorites for Bush's VP?
The media favorites were McCain, Huckabee(a la Clinton/Gore '92), Danforth, and Giuliani. Christine Todd Whitman, Gerald Ford, and Steve Forbes were all considered dark horses for it, either for a new turn with a new century, adding gravitas to the ticket, or rallying the base. Whitman would have crushed whoever Gore picked, and she might have led to butterflies where Bush is in Pennsylvania more and Gore wins Wisconsin, Iowa, and maybe Missouri with Gephardt on the ticket.
Bush might also contest Michigan and Ohio more with Whitman on the ticket.
No Social Security gaffe/DUI announcement:
300: R
213: D
25: UNCALLED