How Bush Wins An Uncontested Election In 2000

[Lincoln Republican]

The DUI coverage does not come out a few days before the election, and does therefore not cost Bush last minute defections to Gore.  As a consequence, Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin, and has a clear win on election night, 2000.

Bush lost these states in 2000 by razor thin margins
IA by 0.31%, NM by 0.06%, OR by 0.44%, WI by 0.22%.

As the DUI coverage does not come out, Bush wins these states by razor thin margins. 

Bush as well wins the popular vote by about 500,000 votes.

Florida remains in dispute, but since Bush has already won an electoral vote majority, the Florida results are not contested by either party.   

Bush/Cheney                                         276
Gore/Lieberman                                     237
Not Settled Election Night                        25

[Lincoln Republican]

Quite frankly if people defected after hearing someone had an ancient DUI... somehow I doubt they would have gone Gore.

Rove estimates something like 3 million religious conservatives didn't show up on election day in part due to the DUI.

If Rove was accurate, that would mean that GW would have won a clear, comfortable, win in 2000.  We would have avoided the Florida debacle and all the acrimony.

GW would have taken at least 301 EV to 237 for Gore, and GW would have had a lead in the popular of about 2,500,000.