What if the UP was part of Wisconsin?

[Tekken_Guy]

If Michigan’s upper peninsula was part of Wisconsin, what election results would have changed in the two states?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Michigan would flip D in 2016 and Wisconsin would flip R in 2020. Michigan possibly flips R in 1960. 1940 and 1944 might actually flip both states.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Michigan would flip D in 2016 and Wisconsin would flip R in 2020.

In addition to this, Wisconsin also flips in 2000 too.

[Schiff for Senate]

MI stays blue in every presidential election, 1992 to present. In 2020 it goes Democratic by roughly 3.43% of the two way vote share. It is a tilt or lean Democratic state.
WI goes blue in 1988, 1992 and 1996 but red in both 2000 and 2004. In 2008 and 2012 it goes blue. In 2016, however, it votes red, and the Upper Peninsula makes it three to four points more conservative, and it goes red by 4-5 points. In 2020 it stays red but by 3 points.

Overall MI would be a tilt or maybe lean Democratic state while WI would be a lean Republican state.

[Tekken_Guy]

MI stays blue in every presidential election, 1992 to present. In 2020 it goes Democratic by 5 points, maybe 6. It is a tilt or lean Democratic state.
WI goes blue in 1988, 1992 and 1996 but red in both 2000 and 2004. In 2008 and 2012 it goes blue. In 2016, however, it votes red, and the Upper Peninsula makes it three to four points more conservative, and it goes red by 4-5 points. In 2020 it stays red but by 3 points.

Overall MI would be a tilt or maybe lean Democratic state while WI would be a lean Republican state.

Is this based on the real results or does it account for the campaigns being conducted differently?

[Schiff for Senate]

MI stays blue in every presidential election, 1992 to present. In 2020 it goes Democratic by 5 points, maybe 6. It is a tilt or lean Democratic state.
WI goes blue in 1988, 1992 and 1996 but red in both 2000 and 2004. In 2008 and 2012 it goes blue. In 2016, however, it votes red, and the Upper Peninsula makes it three to four points more conservative, and it goes red by 4-5 points. In 2020 it stays red but by 3 points.

Overall MI would be a tilt or maybe lean Democratic state while WI would be a lean Republican state.

Is this based on the real results or does it account for the campaigns being conducted differently?

Neither. It's actually me guestimating the level of political clout held by the Upper Peninsula. I imagine it'd shift the race a few points to the right since its total population is that of half a congressional district (and Wisconsin has eight). Yes, campaigns would be conducted differently, and that may marginally alter the margins, but I think Wisconsin would be, in this scenario, a fairly reddish state in 2020, while MI would be blue. Mathematically, MI voted for Biden by 2.78%, and if you were to discount the ballots from the Upper Peninsula and only calculate the results in the Lower Peninsula, Biden's margin expands to 3.43% of the two-way vote share (I used the Elections Shuffler to check this). Specifically, in the Lower Peninsula, Biden garnered 2,735,791 votes, and Trump got 2,554,501. So, since the Upper Peninsula doesn't have quite as much political infleunce as I guessed, I'll fix my prior post.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I used one of those county-mover apps to make the UP part of Wisconsin, and got these results.

2020:
MI - 2,735,791 D to 2,554,501 R
WI - 1,705,416 R to 1,698,922 D

2016:
MI - 2,213,916 D to 2,197,525 R
WI - 1,487,302 R to 1,437,459 D

2012:
MI - 2,495,822 D to 2,041,727 R
WI - 1,689,732 D to 1,484,495 R

2008:
MI - 2,794,322 D to 1,978,992 R
WI - 1,755,468 D to 1,332,040 R

2004:
MI - 2,407,295 D to 2,235,470 R
WI - 1,561,392 D to 1,556,396 R

tl;dr even in previous close elections like '04 and '12, Wisconsin + UP still goes D, until 2016 rolls around when it goes R and stays R. Time would have to tell whether this is only because Trump was on the ballot. Meanwhile, Michigan becomes titanium tilt D.