PA 13

[Keystone Phil]

I saw a poll putting schwartz up 13

It was probably the one from a month ago. IrishDem even admitted that poll wasn't realistic. Right now, I'd say Schwartz is up about 3 points...5 points at most.

It underpolled men 55-45.  Realistically men would favor Brown moreso.  However, it also overpolled Republicans by 46-45.  Dsitrict is 45-45-10 registration.  Schwartz by 6-8, not 3-5 as KP would have you believe.

You're right when you said it overpolled Republicans and that right there is where people should begin to think"Republicans going for a liberal like Schwartz?" It was a very bad poll.

Schwartz up 3 points now but she will lose on November 2nd.

[TeePee4Prez]

[link]http://www.seventy.org/maps/mapimages/13thUSHouse.pdf[/link]


Another beef I have regarding this district is the blatent party lines/racial gerrymandering of the boundary between PA-1 and PA-13.  Take a look at the southern boundary of PA-13.  As you can see there is a nice convenient "bubble" between Oxford Ave and Roosevelt Blvd. on the Western side of the Blvd.  That area is HEAVILY Democratic and Johnnymander Perzel didn't want that in PA-13.  Also notice how along the Delaware River the district is dragged down south along the Amtrak Corridor.  On the east side of it = mostly white, conservative Democrats (many pissed at Section with a solid scattering of Republicans while on the west side is mostly African American and again Democratic. 

[Keystone Phil]

Latest Keystone Poll has Schwartz - 47% and Brown - 32%.

These polls are just ridiculous. Brown...with only 32%? Give me a break.

[TeePee4Prez]

Latest Keystone Poll has Schwartz - 47% and Brown - 32%.

These polls are just ridiculous. Brown...with only 32%? Give me a break.

U.S. Representative Allyson Y. Schwartz!  I guess the people in between the lawn signs think they're annoying.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest Keystone Poll has Schwartz - 47% and Brown - 32%.

These polls are just ridiculous. Brown...with only 32%? Give me a break.

U.S. Representative Allyson Y. Schwartz!  I guess the people in between the lawn signs think they're annoying.

Do you believe that Brown only has 32%?

[Jake]

Where do you guys live on that map?

[Keystone Phil]

Where do you guys live on that map?

I live North of that I-95 sign (right near the border).

If I'm not mistaken, I believe IrishDem lives in the Rhawnhurt section of the NE so he would be around that Route 1 sign. We don't live very far from each other.

[TeePee4Prez]

About a hair below the lower-left corner of the US 1 sign. 

[TeePee4Prez]

A Public Message to KeystonePhil:

The last few months have been the best of times and worst of times.  Overall, this has been a good debate regarding this Congressional District.  When you and TeenGOP entered the Forum, I was excited.  I said to myself "sh**t, I got company from my own backyard."  I am going to admit this...  You caught a lot of frustration I have with regards to my own father poltiically.  I apologize for the times I have been a little nuts.  He is regrettably voting for Melissa Brown on Tuesday. 

These debates will not be over.  We have two more races to discuss in the long run: Santorum vs. ?? (D, hopefully not Hafer) in 2006 for Senate and ??(D, hopefully Jon Saidel) and ??(R, probably Rizzo Jr.) for Philadelphia Mayor in 2007.     

[Keystone Phil]

A Public Message to IrishDem:

The last few months really have been the best of times and worst of times. There have been many occassions when we could discuss, in a civil manner, the district, the campaign and how it would play out. Other times were not so great.

I, too, feel that overall our PA 13 debate was a good debate. No...a great debate. We have built the best debate on the forum. Northeast Philadelphia and PA 13 is the most recognized area on the forum. I am proud to say that and I hope you are too.

As for your frustration, this is politics. Sometimes you went overboard with your comments. Some things were very inappropriate but I hope those comments don't come back again so let's not spend time discussing that. As for your father, he is a good man voting for Melissa Brown 

These debates are not over. Not only do we have Santorum in 2006, Rendell in 2006 and whoever vs. whoever for Mayor in 2007, we still have two days to argue back and forth until the polls close.

About five months ago, a guy we both know with the member name TeenGOP started a thread dedicated to Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional district. No one knew how far and how famous this thread would get. No one. It has been interesting, IrishDem, and no matter who the winner is on Tuesday, let the debate continue.

(Later on I will be posting my predictions for the local races.)

[TeePee4Prez]

A Public Message to IrishDem:

The last few months really have been the best of times and worst of times. There have been many occassions when we could discuss, in a civil manner, the district, the campaign and how it would play out. Other times were not so great.

I, too, feel that overall our PA 13 debate was a good debate. No...a great debate. We have built the best debate on the forum. Northeast Philadelphia and PA 13 is the most recognized area on the forum. I am proud to say that and I hope you are too.

As for your frustration, this is politics. Sometimes you went overboard with your comments. Some things were very inappropriate but I hope those comments don't come back again so let's not spend time discussing that. As for your father, he is a good man voting for Melissa Brown 

These debates are not over. Not only do we have Santorum in 2006, Rendell in 2006 and whoever vs. whoever for Mayor in 2007, we still have two days to argue back and forth until the polls close.

About five months ago, a guy we both know with the member name TeenGOP started a thread dedicated to Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional district. No one knew how far and how famous this thread would get. No one. It has been interesting, IrishDem, and no matter who the winner is on Tuesday, let the debate continue.

(Later on I will be posting my predictions for the local races.)

I don't know when my final message before the campaign was going to be so I figured I'd post it.  Yes, it is great Northeast Philadelphia is highly visible on here and I'm proud we made it that.  Before you came in here I was the lone Northeast Philadelphian.  Granted we had bullmoose88 from Bucks County, but his knowledge on this area was limited.  More times than none he sided with me against supersoulty who was my PA rival until you came.  Funny it was me and Wakie from Pittsburgh as allies versus supersoulty and DarthKosh.  That was just prior to the primaries when the Specter-Toomey debates on here were flaring up.  I could take little part and had my eyes focused on Joe Torsella to beat Allyson Schwartz at the time.  I will admit to you that I visited both websites to make an informed decision and came to the conclusion Allyson Schwartz overemphasized her feminist accomplishements while Joe Torsella had a lot of accomplishments and had a lot of good plans.  The carpetbagging bothered me a bit then.  Funny I knew how disappointed you were when Pat Toomey lost on April 27th and I was feeling similar pain when Joe Torsella lost.  I seriously thought the Dems chances for holding PA-13 may have been shot that night.  It was a shame Howard Dean didn't win and my vote didn't really matter.  Just thought I'd rehash some Forum history with you.   

My predictions on local races:

PA-5 Senate

Stack (D): 55%
Mirarchi (R): 45%

PA-170 House

Boyle (D): 52%
Kenney (R): 48%

PA-172 House

Perzel (R): 67%
Kearney (D): 33%

PA- 152, 169, 173, 174, 177, 179, and 202 are not worth discussing

US House PA-6 (My upset)

Murphy (D): 50.1%
Gerlach (R): 49.5%
other: 0.4%

US House PA-8

Fitzpatrick (R): 54% 
Schrader (D): 44%
other: 2%

Note:  I didn't want to admit this, but driving up there is forcing me admit these results.  Sorry Mark, Ginny will not prevail.  They should have put up better, but then again shame on Greenwood for pulling such a sh!t move.  The Dems should have carpetbagged Joe Torsella.
I still feel this SHOULD have been a Dem pickup considering Fitz.

US House PA-13.. Drum roll please

Schwartz (D): 53%
Brown (R): 45%
McDerMoulton: 2%

US House PA-1, 2, and 7 are not worth discussing.  I have little knowledge on PA-15 and 16.  I will comment on PA-15 though.  Joe Driscoll was a strong candidate.  The carpetbagging was unfortunate.  Charlie Dent will win, but I don't know by how much.  Had he run in PA-6, 8, or 15 AND ACTUALLY LIVED THERE he could have won any of those.  PA delegation will pick up one seat and have 11 Reps and 8 Dems.  That is considering a Murphy upset otherwise a push.

Pennsylvania US Senate

Specter (R): 47%
Hoeffel (D): 45%
Clymer (C); 7%
Summers (L): 1%

Also note that Perzel's Junior YR Army is now going to be challenged here in the Great Northeast.  Mark is doing an incredible job with recruiting and us Young Dems are as well.   

[Keystone Phil]

Predictions for Local Races

State Senate (5th district)

Mirarchi - 50%
Stack - 50%

Mirarchi win by just a few hundred votes.

State House (170th district)

Kenney - 53%
Boyle - 47%

PA 8

Fitzpatrick - 56%
Schrader - 42%
Others - 2%

(I still have no idea what Mark was thinking all the times he said "Ginny will prevail.")

U.S. Senate

Specter - 53%
Hoeffel - 40%
Clymer - 6%
Summers - 1%

....and finally....Phil's PA 13 predicition.....

Brown - 49%
Schwartz - 48%
McDermott - 2%
Moulton - 1%

It's going to be a close race, IrishDem. Brown will have an awesome GOTV effort and that is what will make her victorious.

[J. J.]

There is only one question that will tell who wins PA-13; when will it start to rain there?

BTW:  I've been watching from the sidelines.  It has an outstanding debate.

[TeePee4Prez]

Sorry to hear about Melissa Brown losing Keystone, but at least give us this seat.  We more importantly lost the Presidency.  I will say I would have traded this slight moral victory for John Kerry.  You probably thought I'd be gloating, but I won't.

[TeePee4Prez]

Sorry to hear about Melissa Brown losing Keystone, but at least give us this seat.  We more importantly lost the Presidency.  I will say I would have traded this slight moral victory for John Kerry.  You probably thought I'd be gloating, but I won't.

Hey, good for you! Classy.

Thanks, but I'm more saddened by John Kerry's loss if anything.  Man, was I ever wrapped up in this race.

[Keystone Phil]

Sorry to hear about Melissa Brown losing Keystone, but at least give us this seat.  We more importantly lost the Presidency.  I will say I would have traded this slight moral victory for John Kerry.  You probably thought I'd be gloating, but I won't.

Well I thank you for not gloating. This was a big loss. 56% for Schwartz and only 41% for Brown. It's tough. I was only a few feet away when she conceded and kept thinking to myself "How did we lose...and by this much?"

Mirarchi also went down...big. 66% to 34%. Wow. I thought that if he was going to lose, he'd lose by at most 6 - 8 points. This was another big disappointment.

However, there are a few races that I am pleased with but I won't gloat either. I know you spent a good amount of your time working with Boyle. Let me tell you...I wasn't expecting that big of a win for Kenney.

I doubt this thread ends here. We'll continue to look over the results and try to explain the outcome of these races. But I think, for now, we shoudld both respect each other since we suffered some tough defeats last night.

[TeePee4Prez]

Sorry to hear about Melissa Brown losing Keystone, but at least give us this seat.  We more importantly lost the Presidency.  I will say I would have traded this slight moral victory for John Kerry.  You probably thought I'd be gloating, but I won't.

Well I thank you for not gloating. This was a big loss. 56% for Schwartz and only 41% for Brown. It's tough. I was only a few feet away when she conceded and kept thinking to myself "How did we lose...and by this much?"

Mirarchi also went down...big. 66% to 34%. Wow. I thought that if he was going to lose, he'd lose by at most 6 - 8 points. This was another big disappointment.

However, there are a few races that I am pleased with but I won't gloat either. I know you spent a good amount of your time working with Boyle. Let me tell you...I wasn't expecting that big of a win for Kenney.

I doubt this thread ends here. We'll continue to look over the results and try to explain the outcome of these races. But I think, for now, we shoudld both respect each other since we suffered some tough defeats last night.

Yes, I was also disappointed about the Boyle race.  I worked all day yesterday to ensure his victory.  Kenney had resources on him 10 to 1.  I even had a Stack woman tell me how great Kenney was and voted for him.  She didn't even know who Boyle was running against.  I showed her the lit and she said "he's a doll, looks like Tom Cruise".  This was a VERY tough defeat considering the Boyles (Brendan and Kevin) worked their asses off.  Rest assure, Brendan will be back.  If Kenney were to retire or take another job, Brendan would pick up this seat easily.  I will also say Mirarchi isn't done either.  I talked to a lot of his people and it sounds like he is on the rise as well.           

With regards to the Schwartz-Brown race, I'm surprised you got beat by almost 23 points in Northeast Philadelphia and 8 in Montco.  I was expecting the 8 in Montco, but not 23 in Philly. 

[Keystone Phil]

Sorry to hear about Melissa Brown losing Keystone, but at least give us this seat.  We more importantly lost the Presidency.  I will say I would have traded this slight moral victory for John Kerry.  You probably thought I'd be gloating, but I won't.

Well I thank you for not gloating. This was a big loss. 56% for Schwartz and only 41% for Brown. It's tough. I was only a few feet away when she conceded and kept thinking to myself "How did we lose...and by this much?"

Mirarchi also went down...big. 66% to 34%. Wow. I thought that if he was going to lose, he'd lose by at most 6 - 8 points. This was another big disappointment.

However, there are a few races that I am pleased with but I won't gloat either. I know you spent a good amount of your time working with Boyle. Let me tell you...I wasn't expecting that big of a win for Kenney.

I doubt this thread ends here. We'll continue to look over the results and try to explain the outcome of these races. But I think, for now, we shoudld both respect each other since we suffered some tough defeats last night.

Yes, I was also disappointed about the Boyle race.  I worked all day yesterday to ensure his victory.  Kenney had resources on him 10 to 1.  I even had a Stack woman tell me how great Kenney was and voted for him.  She didn't even know who Boyle was running against.  I showed her the lit and she said "he's a doll, looks like Tom Cruise".  This was a VERY tough defeat considering the Boyles (Brendan and Kevin) worked their asses off.  Rest assure, Brendan will be back.  If Kenney were to retire or take another job, Brendan would pick up this seat easily.  I will also say Mirarchi isn't done either.  I talked to a lot of his people and it sounds like he is on the rise as well.           

With regards to the Schwartz-Brown race, I'm surprised you got beat by almost 23 points in Northeast Philadelphia and 8 in Montco.  I was expecting the 8 in Montco, but not 23 in Philly. 

I was at my polling place yesterday for Brown. After voting, a lady up to me saying "I didn't want to tell you this as I was coming in but I voted all Republican..." As I began to thank her, she interupted me saying, "...except for Brown." I was in shock. I had no idea what to say. My division really disappointed me. I did so much work for Brown as opposed to only two visits from Schwartz volunteers. In the end, Schwartz took my division by 40 votes. Mirarchi's campaign also did a few lit drops in my division and Sam actually canvassed here, too. Stack did nothing. Stack won by a comfortable margin. The reason why Schwartz and Stack won (not just in my division but overall) was because so many pushed the straight Dem button.

I do believe that both Boyle and Mirarchi will be back. Who knows...when Kenney is done, maybe it'll be Boyle vs. Mirarchi for State Rep.

[TeePee4Prez]

I do believe that both Boyle and Mirarchi will be back. Who knows...when Kenney is done, maybe it'll be Boyle vs. Mirarchi for State Rep.

I was about to say that.  Yes, that would be an interesting race where two young, highly qualified men would get a lot of local attention.  That race would be known throughout the Philadelphia area.  I'm going to be a little biased here and say Boyle would win, but who knows.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz hasn't even been sworn in as a member of Congress (yeah it's hard saying that) and look what the rumors are for her in 2006...


The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz.

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/2004/battleground200411031223.asp

If it's Santorum vs. Schwartz, it's a landslide victory for Santorum.

[raggage]

Schwartz hasn't even been sworn in as a member of Congress (yeah it's hard saying that) and look what the rumors are for her in 2006...


The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz.

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/2004/battleground200411031223.asp

If it's Santorum vs. Schwartz, it's a landslide victory for Santorum.

Well I doubt very much Schwartz will run. But I think that a moderate democrat, even Rendell would win a Senate race against Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz hasn't even been sworn in as a member of Congress (yeah it's hard saying that) and look what the rumors are for her in 2006...


The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz.

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/2004/battleground200411031223.asp

If it's Santorum vs. Schwartz, it's a landslide victory for Santorum.

Well I doubt very much Schwartz will run. But I think that a moderate democrat, even Rendell would win a Senate race against Santorum.

Rendell isn't that popular anymore. And something you guys from out of state fail to realize is that while you don't like Santorum, he is a popular guy here. A pro life Dem could give him a good run but the pro choice groups will fund  a pro abortion rights candidate in the primary. I know how much Dems would love to replace Santorum but it won't happen (especially with Barbara Hafer as the likely nominee).

[TeePee4Prez]

Schwartz hasn't even been sworn in as a member of Congress (yeah it's hard saying that) and look what the rumors are for her in 2006...


The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz.

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/2004/battleground200411031223.asp

If it's Santorum vs. Schwartz, it's a landslide victory for Santorum.

I want Schwartz to stay here for a while.  I know Melissa Brown is not the only cnadidate that could run in this seat.  Ellen Bard or God forbid John Perzel would bedecent candidates.  Perzel has built a power base in the Northeast and maybe a threat.  IHMO, Schwartz was lucky to win PA-13.  Yeah, it was by a comfy margin, but I have to admit I was worried.  In a conservative rest of PA, a Barbara Boxer Democrat can not win Pennsylvania.  The dynamics are there for California, but not PA despite the fact Santorum is an asshole.  At very least, Allyson Schwartz will need to wait until 2010 to even consider a run if Arlen Specter retires.  By then I'm hoping the Philadelphia suburbs will be solidly Democratic and the Pittsburgh area holds steady at least.  Also, a lot of liberal New Yorkers are moving into Northeastern PA and could add Democratic votes there as well.  I should also say EVERYTHING I just said needs to happen: Philly suburban Dem trend+Pittsburgh hold+New York migration=Allyson Schwartz possibilty in 2010.  Joe Hoeffel should re-run in 2006.     

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz hasn't even been sworn in as a member of Congress (yeah it's hard saying that) and look what the rumors are for her in 2006...


The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz.

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/2004/battleground200411031223.asp

If it's Santorum vs. Schwartz, it's a landslide victory for Santorum.

I want Schwartz to stay here for a while.  I know Melissa Brown is not the only cnadidate that could run in this seat.  Ellen Bard or God forbid John Perzel would bedecent candidates.  Perzel has built a power base in the Northeast and maybe a threat.  IHMO, Schwartz was lucky to win PA-13.  Yeah, it was by a comfy margin, but I have to admit I was worried.  In a conservative rest of PA, a Barbara Boxer Democrat can not win Pennsylvania.  The dynamics are there for California, but not PA despite the fact Santorum is an asshole.  At very least, Allyson Schwartz will need to wait until 2010 to even consider a run if Arlen Specter retires.  By then I'm hoping the Philadelphia suburbs will be solidly Democratic and the Pittsburgh area holds steady at least.  Also, a lot of liberal New Yorkers are moving into Northeastern PA and could add Democratic votes there as well.  I should also say EVERYTHING I just said needs to happen: Philly suburban Dem trend+Pittsburgh hold+New York migration=Allyson Schwartz possibilty in 2010.  Joe Hoeffel should re-run in 2006.     

Bard would not be a decent candidate. You guys would have no trouble beating her. Perzel for Congress...won't happen. He is Speaker of the House and won't be giving that up anytime soon. I'm not joking when I say this...Brown could be back in 2006. We have to wait and see though.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell isn't that popular anymore. And something you guys from out of state fail to realize is that while you don't like Santorum, he is a popular guy here. A pro life Dem could give him a good run but the pro choice groups will fund  a pro abortion rights candidate in the primary. I know how much Dems would love to replace Santorum but it won't happen (especially with Barbara Hafer as the likely nominee).

What chance do think the new State Treasurer would have against Santorum?

Bob Casey, Jr. Very popular guy. If I could have voted in this election, he would have received my vote. Pro life, conservative Dem but no chance of running for the Senate. He wants to be Governor and if, for whatever reason he decided to run for Senate, pro choice groups would put up a challenger in the primary.

As for the outgoing Dem then Republican then Dem again State Treasurer Barbara Hafer, I think she is the likely nominee in two years. She'll have the money and support from Rendell. Hafer vs. Santorum - The best idea for the Dems (that is, if they want to keep Rick in the Senate for six more years)