PA 13

[TeePee4Prez]

Well here's my take for the GOP.

Most likely to run:

Al Taubenberger-  President of the Fox Chase Civic Association and the Greater Northeast Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.  Very popular in that neighborhood, but then again, Fox Chase blows the rest of Northeast Philadelphia out in conservatism having voted Bush by over 60% in most Fox Chase divisions.  He is however extremely conservative and would lose a significant portion of the Brown vote especially in socially liberal Montgomery County.  He is anti-choice whcih bodes well among observant Catholics, but there is little to no chance he's winning.

Prediction:
Schwartz- 60
Taubenberger- 40

Highly probable:

Bruce Castor-  Popular Montgomery County District Attorney.  Castor Avenue is also a notable street in Norheast Philadelphia and named after his grandfather.  Has an 80% approval rating in Montco and would liekly win that portion of the district.  He is young and anti-choice.  Would close down Northeast Phialdelphia's wide gap from the 2004 election as well.  However, unions will be out and about as usual in NE Philly and NARAL will go to work in Montco.

Prediction:
Schwartz- 50
Castor- 50

Too close to call.

John Taylor- PA State Representative of the 177th District.  Encompasses some heavily Democratic areas and half his district is in the 13th Congressional.  Also a 1973 graduate of Northeast Catholic (my alma mater btw) and many grads live in Northeast Philadelphia and some in Montgomery County.  Possible nostalgia effect for him.  He is also an economic moderate, populist Republican and I think the unions won't hit him as heavily.  He is well liked in his district with a lot of union members.  However he is an unknown in Montco and anti-choice which could be lethal for him there.  Would marginally win Northeast Philadelphia, but get creamed in Montgomery County.

Prediction:
Schwartz- 53
Taylor- 47

Dennis O'Brien- PA State Represenative of the 169th District.  Popular in his district with very high approval ratings even amongst Democrats.  Ideologically the same as John Taylor, but represents a wealthier, more Republican district.  Unlike Taylor, he is not that well known outside his district.  He would close the gap on Schwartz in Northeast Philadelphia, but Schwartz would still come out on top.  Like Taylor, same problems in Montco.

Prediction:
Schwartz-56
O'Brien-44

nini2287, if there are any Montco picks, I'd like to hear them.    

[Keystone Phil]

Well here's my take for the GOP.

Most likely to run:

Al Taubenberger-  President of the Fox Chase Civic Association and the Greater Northeast Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.  Very popular in that neighborhood, but then again, Fox Chase blows the rest of Northeast Philadelphia out in conservatism having voted Bush by over 60% in most Fox Chase divisions.  He is however extremely conservative and would lose a significant portion of the Brown vote especially in socially liberal Montgomery County.  He is anti-choice whcih bodes well among observant Catholics, but there is little to no chance he's winning.

Prediction:
Schwartz- 60
Taubenberger- 40

Highly probable:

Bruce Castor-  Popular Montgomery County District Attorney.  Castor Avenue is also a notable street in Norheast Philadelphia and named after his grandfather.  Has an 80% approval rating in Montco and would liekly win that portion of the district.  He is young and anti-choice.  Would close down Northeast Phialdelphia's wide gap from the 2004 election as well.  However, unions will be out and about as usual in NE Philly and NARAL will go to work in Montco.

Prediction:
Schwartz- 50
Castor- 50

Too close to call.

John Taylor- PA State Representative of the 177th District.  Encompasses some heavily Democratic areas and half his district is in the 13th Congressional.  Also a 1973 graduate of Northeast Catholic (my alma mater btw) and many grads live in Northeast Philadelphia and some in Montgomery County.  Possible nostalgia effect for him.  He is also an economic moderate, populist Republican and I think the unions won't hit him as heavily.  He is well liked in his district with a lot of union members.  However he is an unknown in Montco and anti-choice which could be lethal for him there.  Would marginally win Northeast Philadelphia, but get creamed in Montgomery County.

Prediction:
Schwartz- 53
Taylor- 47

Dennis O'Brien- PA State Represenative of the 169th District.  Popular in his district with very high approval ratings even amongst Democrats.  Ideologically the same as John Taylor, but represents a wealthier, more Republican district.  Unlike Taylor, he is not that well known outside his district.  He would close the gap on Schwartz in Northeast Philadelphia, but Schwartz would still come out on top.  Like Taylor, same problems in Montco.

Prediction:
Schwartz-56
O'Brien-44

nini2287, if there are any Montco picks, I'd like to hear them.    

Very good idea posting the likely 2006 races. I'll get working on that right now!

[Keystone Phil]

Here is my analysis. I included a third party candidate (likely Moulton again) and gave the candidate the amount of support he/she would likely receive. McDermott would likely not be a candidate (especially if Taubenberger gets the nomination).

Almost certain to run:

Al Taubenberger - Pretty much what Flyers said. He'd do well in certain the Northeast neighborhoods but would be very unpopular in Montco. McDermott, who is a Taubenberger fan, would not run.

Schwartz - 57%
Taubenberger - 42%
Other - 1%

Joe McColgan - Ran against Borksi in '90 and '96. Not as well known in the Northeast as Taubenberger and would have clear problems in Montco due to his social conservativism.

Schwartz - 58%
McColgan - 41%
Other - 1%

Might run:

Bruce Castor - Very popular in Montco and would connect well with Northeast Philadelphians. Well known in the district. Like Flyers pointed out, Schwartz would have the unions and Pro Choice groups out full force for what would clearly be her toughest challenge.

Castor - 51%
Schwartz - 48%
Other - 1%

I think Castor would win it but I'll keep it in the Too Close to Call column.

Unlikely to run:

The following are unlikely to run but I decided to throw in my analysis anyway.

John Taylor - Popular State Rep. from Northeast Philadelphia. Can connect well with NE Philly Dems and probably would receive some union support but wouldn't receive a warm reception out in Montco.

Schwartz - 52%
Taylor - 47%
Other - 1%

Denny O'Brien - My State Rep. Very popular official who hasn't had an opponent in the last two elections (even with opponents, O'Brien receives about 85-95% of the vote). Like Taylor, he connects well with Republicans and Dems. Montco still a problem.

Schwartz - 52%
O'Brien - 47%
Other - 1%

[TeePee4Prez]

Actually Castor does not want to be a legislator and even said it.  I forgot about McColgan.  Don't you think Taylor would do better than O'Brien?  I think Taylor is more recognizable even though he ironically doesn't live in the district.  The whole North Catholic factor may sound stupid, but we are a much bigger alumni for we've been around much longer and at one time NC was packed to the gills.  A lot of these grads live farther up in the NE in the 13th.  Also remeber older people are more likely to vote.  Taylor speaks at a lot of North events.  Just my analysis, not a bias.  Still would vote Schwartz.  Please elaborate O'Brien if you can.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually Castor does not want to be a legislator and even said it.  I forgot about McColgan.  Don't you think Taylor would do better than O'Brien?  I think Taylor is more recognizable even though he ironically doesn't live in the district.  The whole North Catholic factor may sound stupid, but we are a much bigger alumni for we've been around much longer and at one time NC was packed to the gills.  A lot of these grads live farther up in the NE in the 13th.  Also remeber older people are more likely to vote.  Taylor speaks at a lot of North events.  Just my analysis, not a bias.  Still would vote Schwartz.  Please elaborate O'Brien if you can.

Castor might not have the urge to go into the Legislative branch but if he receives enough pressure from the party, he might run.

Taylor does live in the district. I think we discussed this once before. I'd say both are equally known outside of their districts. Remember that parts of Kenney's district used to be O'Brien's.

If older people are more likely to vote, I'd give O'Brien the edge. PA 169 has a big senior population. O'Brien is also very visible around Archbishop Ryan. Many people around here either went to Ryan or have kids that go there. If there is an open house, a leadership event or a career day, count on O'Brien to be there.

[Akno21]

Gotta give you guys credit, you know your district. I sure as hell don't know MD-7 as well as you know PA-13.

[Jake]

Gotta give you guys credit, you know your district. I sure as hell don't know MD-7 as well as you know PA-13.

Ditto, though I would bet it is a little easier when the district is small like PA-13 is.  Mine has parts of 10 counties in it, but I doubt I know my own county as well as they know their district.

[Keystone Phil]

Gotta give you guys credit, you know your district. I sure as hell don't know MD-7 as well as you know PA-13.

Ditto, though I would bet it is a little easier when the district is small like PA-13 is.  Mine has parts of 10 counties in it, but I doubt I know my own county as well as they know their district.

While we certainly aren't as big as PA 10, this is a big district with many diverse areas. In just 15 minutes, you can drive from the heart of Mayfair, a neighborhood in NE Philly that has seen better days, to an affluent community in Montgomery county. The views change drastically. It really is an interesting district.

[J. J.]

I'm going to point this out, again.  PA-13 is one of those key districts that could elect a Republican and has had 3 4 different representatives in the last 14 years.  In 1996, it was the closest or second closest district in the nation.

The thread can be a bit of a microcosm for the US House.  This thread gives a great deal of insight into this district.  Keep it by all means.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm going to point this out, again.  PA-13 is one of those key districts that could elect a Republican and has had 3 4 different representatives in the last 14 years.  In 1996, it was the closest or second closest district in the nation.

The thread can be a bit of a microcosm for the US House.  This thread gives a great deal of insight into this district.  Keep it by all means.

Thank you, J.J. I can understand why some don't understand why this district and this area's politics are important. You really have to be from around here to know what it's all about.

Even if 2006 brings a race where Schwartz is a clear favorite, I am willing to bet that it will be just as exciting as this past election.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm going to point this out, again.  PA-13 is one of those key districts that could elect a Republican and has had 3 4 different representatives in the last 14 years.  In 1996, it was the closest or second closest district in the nation.

The thread can be a bit of a microcosm for the US House.  This thread gives a great deal of insight into this district.  Keep it by all means.

Thank you, J.J. I can understand why some don't understand why this district and this area's politics are important. You really have to be from around here to know what it's all about.

Even if 2006 brings a race where Schwartz is a clear favorite, I am willing to bet that it will be just as exciting as this past election.

It will be especially if Bruce Castor runs.  PA 13's politics are a microcosm of the nation as J.J eluded to.  Populism, liberalism, conservatism, and libertarianism are spread out in sprinkles around the district.  Like Keystone said you can drive 5 minutes and find a totally different world within the district.

[PBrunsel]

It's neat you have exciting Congressional races in Pennsylvania. I quote my local news station on Novemeber 2nd, 2004,:

"Grassley wins landslide- No surprise"

"Nussle wins landslide- No surprise"

"Leach wins landslide- No surprise"

Than the big surprise came:

"Bush leads in Iowa, no- wait that is a surprise."

I lie to you not!

[TeePee4Prez]

Post#950.  Post Section 8 comments here.

[Keystone Phil]

If Nickshepdem is reading, Section 8 is the definition of a hot topic issue in PA 13 (the NE Philly part). The strong focus on this issue allowed Brown to make PA 13 a very competitive race in 2002.

[Moooooo]

Jesus, this thread is long.

[Keystone Phil]

Jesus, this thread is long.

PA 13 is a very interesting area politically.

[TeePee4Prez]

Jesus, this thread is long.

We'll be pushing 1000 posts.

[Keystone Phil]

Jesus, this thread is long.

We'll be pushing 1000 posts.

We'll easily get to 1000 by the end of this year.

[Moooooo]

What would happened if this thread was accidently deleted? 

[Keystone Phil]

What would happened if this thread was accidently deleted? 

It wouldn't be a good day.  PA 13 will live!

[MHS2002]

What would happened if this thread was accidently deleted? 

Nothing can hold down PA-13. Believe me, most of the people on the forum have already tried

[Joe Republic]

I honestly do believe I know more about PA-13 than any other district in Congress, including my own.  And that's a compliment (I guess), by the way.

[Keystone Phil]

What would happened if this thread was accidently deleted? 

Someone should  archive this thread, and I'm being dead serious to.  To much stuff to lose if the forum crashes.  Someone should look into it.

Thank you for that comment. I do believe that this thread is the perfect example of forum debate. Sometimes it got ugly but most of the time it was just two people, sharing their opinions and views of a very interesting Congressional district. This thread has also helped shape what I see as the greatest rivalry on this forum.

[Joe Republic]

What happened to TeenGOP, the guy who started this thread?

[Jake]

What happened to TeenGOP, the guy who started this thread?

I think he left for good. I know Phil said he knew him.