PA 13

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ALL of PA was gerrymandered to a horrific degree by the GOP legislature (look at PA-18... that district is disgraceful) and PA-13 was no exception.
It was designed for a fairly moderate GOPer to win. That Hoeffel hung on *at all* was something of an upset (though overshadowed by that shocker-of-all-shockers a few miles north west of the district. Ya know what I mean...).
It's also an extremely notorius swing district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Schwartz is (IMO) the favourite to win PA-13... it's worth remembering that Montgomery county-based Hoeffel still beat Brown in the NE Philly part of PA-13 (despite the merger of two districts the results were very similer in both halves of the district) and that that part of PA-13 was a de facto open seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Schwartz is (IMO) the favourite to win PA-13... it's worth remembering that Montgomery county-based Hoeffel still beat Brown in the NE Philly part of PA-13 (despite the merger of two districts the results were very similer in both halves of the district) and that that part of PA-13 was a de facto open seat.

However, 1) Schwartz is not as well known as Brown. 2) Brown is well known and popular in this area. 3) Schwartz is further left than Joe Hoeffel and the reason why Hoeffel was re-elected was because he can portray himself as a moderate (with his voting record, I have no idea how anyone could believe he's a moderate. After this Senate race, maybe the voters statewide will see just how liberal he is.) Schwartz will have a very hard time making herself out to be a moderate.

Brown is going to win this race. PA13 - GOP pickup.

Hoeffel didn't win because he was seen as a moderate... PA-13 isn't exactly Texas ya know...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Party Registration: PA-13 (2002)

R: 45%
D: 45%
I: 9%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bear in mind that the NE Philly part of PA-13 was a de facto Open Seat in 2002

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's all the interest with PA 13?

Dave

It's a gerrymandered congressional district in Pennsylvania taking in a largely white ethnic and mostly working class part of Philly along with an affluent white suburban area from neighbouring Montgomery county. That's only a rough summary o/c.
It was an open seat last election and initial seemed to be extremely competative; in the end the Democratic candidate won fairly easily.
It's also where a lot (including the two most partisan and abrasive) of the forums many PA posters live.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why did Hoeffel do so badly in 2002?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is kind of an interesting "Reagan Democrat" (just to annoy BRTD) area,

Though in this case the term is actually somewhat accurate.