1984 Unexpected Election

[Lincoln Republican]

In 1984, with two announcements that sent the Republican Party and the nation reeling, both President Ronald Reagan and Vice President George HW Bush opt not to run for reelection.  Reagan states "health concerns" as his reason, and Bush states "personal reasons."

In a stunning development on the GOP side, the party rallies behind veteran legislator and fiscal hawk Senator William Roth of Delaware, co-author of the Kemp-Roth Tax Cut in 1981. 

In a move that catches everyone off guard, Roth picks conservative firebrand Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah for Vice President.

The Democrats, however, astound the nation with their selection, as the party unites behind their 1972 nominee for another run at the top, liberal icon, anti war crusader, former South Dakota Senator George McGovern.

McGovern makes a surprise pick for Vice President, opting for former Arizona Congressman and former Secretary of the Interior in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, environmental czar Stewart Udall.

( I know this could never happen, that's not the point.  The point is, these are the nominees for this scenario.)

How does this election turn out?
Maps?           

[True Democrat]

McGovern would do better than 72, but still lose very badly.  Roth would do well in NY among Jewish voters, but badly in the South because of this religion.



463-75

[Dr. Cynic]

Interesting, and HIGHLY unlikely scenario. By that time, if a Udall would have been on a national ticket, it would have been Mo and not Stewart...
McGovern would not have won the nomination either...

In anycase, I've never really heard of the head of the Republican ticket, which is quite astounding to me, although I am quite familiar with Senator Hatch.

All in all, I couldn't say, because I'm mostly unfamiliar with Senator Roth.

[adam]

This was actually an intresting scenario until you mentioned George McGovern. I can't conjour a name that would fall victim to a McGovern candidacy.The man was a lamb.

[Lincoln Republican]

Doctor Cynic and adam

I have drawn up the following scenario based on your feedback

Republican
Senator William Roth (DE) President
Senator Orrin Hatch (UT) Vice President

Democrat
Congressman Mo Udall (AZ) President
Former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance (WV) Vice President

How does this election turn out?
Maps?

For details on Senator William Roth go to http://en.wikipedia/wiki/william_roth or just type in william roth wiki

 

[adam]

Winfield, a great scenario and far more likely than the previous one. It would be a real nail biter I think. You have the real flash bang personality and substance of Udall versus a respectable moderate Republican in the 80s.

Udall/Vance - 50.3% - 271
Roth/Hatch - 49.5% - 267
Other - .2%

I think it's a rough campaign for both sides. Roth appeals to many in the big northern states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania where he would push his more liberal planks (such as those he held on the environment). Udall appeals to the general democratic base and an abnormally high amount of independents. I think in the end it would boil down to Udall being the more energizing of the two, and him successfully drawing his Southwest base to the polls in droves. The election doesn't end until the next day where, in a suprising turn of events, Udall upsets in Texas by 3000 votes and wins the election.

I really believe this scenario could have gone either way.

[Lincoln Republican]

Thanks adam.

One thing to keep in mind, the nation was just coming off of only 4 years of Republican administration under the extremely popular President, Ronald Reagan.

A few endorsements, a few speeches, and a few television ads by Reagan in behalf of Roth, and with Roth campaigning to continue on, generally, with the Reagan program intact, could well have tipped the election to Roth.

But you do say the election could go either way.  Good point. 

[Lincoln Republican]

Walter

How do you think this election turns out?

William Roth/Orrin Hatch v Mo Udall/Cyrus Vance in 1984

[Dr. Cynic]

I could see Udall beating Roth, after reading the information Wiki had on him. It would be terribly close, but I have confidance in the man who was deemed just too funny.