2004: Dean the Independent

[Robespierre's Jaw]

After loosing the 2004 Democratic nomination to Senator John Kerry of Massachussetts, Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont decides to run as a liberal independent in the 2004 presidential election. Governor Dean selects Congressman Dennis Kuchinich of Ohio as his running mate.

2004 Presidential Tickets:
GOP: George W. Bush/Richard B. Cheney
Dem: John F. Kerry/John R. Edwards
Ind: Howard Dean/Dennis Kuchinich

Discuss with maps

[Lincoln Republican]

Dean draws enough votes away from Kerry so Bush wins New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Bush increases his win over Kerry in Ohio dramatically.  The Dean ticket with Kucinich wins considerable Ohio support, at the expense of Kerry.

Kerry is barely able to hang onto wins in Michigan, Minnesota, and Oregon, winning only with razaor thin margins.

Dean wins his home state of Vermont.

The election results in a decisive win for Bush.

Bush/Cheney            321 EV  51% PV
Kerry/Edwards          214 EV  42% PV
Dean/Kucinich               3 EV    7% PV

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Dean draws enough votes away from Kerry so Bush wins New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Bush increases his win over Kerry in Ohio dramatically.  The Dean ticket with Kucinich wins considerable Ohio support, at the expense of Kerry.

Kerry is barely able to hang onto wins in Michigan, Minnesota, and Oregon, winning only with razaor thin margins.

Dean wins his home state of Vermont.

The election results in a decisive win for Bush.

Bush/Cheney            321 EV  51% PV
Kerry/Edwards          214 EV  42% PV
Dean/Kucinich               3 EV    7% PV

Very realistic Winfield

[DownWithTheLeft]

Bush gains a lot of states, Dean takes VT and DC by slim margins, but draws about 9% nationally really killing Kerry in states like NJ and MN.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Bush gains a lot of states, Dean takes VT and DC by slim margins, but draws about 9% nationally really killing Kerry in states like NJ and MN.

I would agree on all but DC - An on-the-ballot Democrat wins DC regardless of the candidate or their opposition.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apart from the fact that Dean wouldn't run as an independent - since he was lining up the DNC job from before he dropped out.

I agree that Dean would have really hurt Kerry in quite a few states.

It is a possibly mistaken assumption that Dean would have done VERY well - since the anti-War left were not totally without pragmatism. They would have known that a vote for Dean was in essence a vote for Bush.

Plus you would have to think where Dean would have had a large enough fan base - I doubt that NJ would have swung - DC (not a chance) - WI, NH and OR are the only states I can picture going in the other direction.

[7,052,770]

WHY would Dean even think of doing this?

[Rob]

Bush wins 323-215; the popular vote is 51 percent to 42 percent for Kerry and 6 percent for Dean.

Dean's best showing is in his native Vermont, where he polls 25 percent of the vote. This leads to a stunning Bush victory, as he wins with only 39 percent to 36 percent for Kerry. The former Governor of Vermont runs a strong second in the District of Columbia with 22 percent to Bush's 9 percent. He also breaks 10 percent in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine.

With hindsight, I vote for Dean in this scenario. We know that Kerry loses anyway, so why the hell not?

[adam]

Dean was far more energising to young people, and many Democrats would have loved to have him over Kerry in 2004. Dean would have raised enough hell to preform impressively, at the cost of Kerry.

I give Dean 9% and Vermont.