Robo-Pollster says Bush by 8 in Tennessee

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I think Bush will be about 10 points above his national average in Tennessee.

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Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.

Bush was 4.5% above his national average in Tennessee in 2000.  Lets say this:

Gore being more moderate than Kerry: Margin up to 6.5%
Gore Boost from (sort of) being southern/from TN: Margin up to 10%.

In a 50-50 election, Bush would win TN 55-45% or so.

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Al,

If Tennessee is so close, why do polls keep coming out from the state (other than mentally illl Zogby) show Bush up 8-12%?

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Polling TN is a waste of money.

Try to invent polling difficulties in Tennessee all you want, but the fact remains all polls out of there recently have shown the same thing: Bush up in around 10%.

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I'd be saying the same if the numbers were reversed

I doubt it

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correct me if im wrong, but hasnt al predicted virginia, tennessee, and arkansas all for kerry?

Yes, while NH, WI, and IA go for Bush.

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Bandit!