Robo-Pollster says Bush by 8 in Tennessee

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why even bother polling TN? It'll be decided (as always) by whether or not the Confederate counties can outvote the Union counties (with their new suburban allies)...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually, the suburbs are voting with the Confederacy.  The exurbs go to the Union.

Yeah... you're right.
Who needs polls, issues or even candidates when you can have a Civil War re-enactment every other year...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Bush will be about 10 points above his national average in Tennessee.

Won't happen

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.

Bush was 4.5% above his national average in Tennessee in 2000.  Lets say this:

Gore being more moderate than Kerry: Margin up to 6.5%
Gore Boost from (sort of) being southern/from TN: Margin up to 10%.

In a 50-50 election, Bush would win TN 55-45% or so.

The moderate thing doesn't work... TN isn't a moderate state *at all*... just a very, very divided one...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al,

If Tennessee is so close, why do polls keep coming out from the state (other than mentally illl Zogby) show Bush up 8-12%?

I dunno whether it'll be close or not. Depends whether or not the Confederates can beat the Union...
Turnout, turnout, turnout
Polling TN is a waste of money.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling TN is a waste of money.

Try to invent polling difficulties in Tennessee all you want, but the fact remains all polls out of there recently have shown the same thing: Bush up in around 10%.

I'd be saying the same if the numbers were reversed

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be saying the same if the numbers were reversed

I doubt it

Nope