Which Gore States Would Kerry Lose?

[HoopsCubs]

Al Gore won the following 20 states + District of Columbia:

Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, California and New Mexico in the west

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota in the midwest

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine in the East

Of all of these, which ones would Kerry lose in your opinion?  

Thanks,
HoopsCubs

[opebo]

Al Gore won the following 20 states + District of Columbia:

Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, California and New Mexico in the west

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota in the midwest

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine in the East

Of all of these, which ones would Kerry lose in your opinion?  

Thanks,
HoopsCubs

Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota.  And possibly Oregon.

[HoopsCubs]

Wow, if he lost those 5 states, that would put him at 221 electoral votes.  Needing at least 49 for victory, that would mean Kerry would have to win Ohio (20), Florida (27) and New Hampshire (4).  Almost impossible.   A very tough road indeed.  

[jravnsbo]

I would say MN is first ont he hit list.  Followd in descending order by NM, OR, IA, WI

and PA is a tossup and MI could be.

[jravnsbo]

NH does not like tax increases so it is in GOP column.  Then FL is more and moe GOP since 2000 and Panhandle will vote in droves this time.  

OH is my only worry.

Wow, if he lost those 5 states, that would put him at 221 electoral votes.  Needing at least 49 for victory, that would mean Kerry would have to win Ohio (20), Florida (27) and New Hampshire (4).  Almost impossible.   A very tough road indeed.  

[12th Doctor]

I would say MN is first ont he hit list.  Followd in descending order by NM, OR, IA, WI

and PA is a tossup and MI could be.

Don't forget Minnisota.

[jravnsbo]

I didn't that is what MN stands for.

I would say MN is first ont he hit list.  Followd in descending order by NM, OR, IA, WI

and PA is a tossup and MI could be.

Don't forget Minnisota.

[Michael Z]

Al Gore won the following 20 states + District of Columbia:

Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, California and New Mexico in the west

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota in the midwest

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine in the East

Of all of these, which ones would Kerry lose in your opinion?  

Thanks,
HoopsCubs

Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota.  And possibly Oregon.

Yes, that sounds about right.

However Kerry could gain Nevada, Ohio and West Virginia.

[Gustaf]

Kerry COULD lose a lot of states, I don't know which he WOULD lose, it's way too early to tell, I think. But obviously, those 5 states that were close in 2000, and has been mentioned above, would be included. PA is vulnerable as well.

[© tweed]

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

[Gustaf]

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

[© tweed]

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

[Gustaf]

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[jravnsbo]

gustaf-it was on letterman last night and good show.  Dean did alright and a little lightheartedness is good for him now.

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[Gustaf]

Ah, well, I am kind of cut off from the world of entertainment in America...

gustaf-it was on letterman last night and good show.  Dean did alright and a little lightheartedness is good for him now.

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[jravnsbo]

I know it was confusing for me too when I was deployed to germany last year, everything seemed to be a day behind.

Ah, well, I am kind of cut off from the world of entertainment in America...

gustaf-it was on letterman last night and good show.  Dean did alright and a little lightheartedness is good for him now.

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[Gustaf]

Then you know how I feel...

I know it was confusing for me too when I was deployed to germany last year, everything seemed to be a day behind.

Ah, well, I am kind of cut off from the world of entertainment in America...

gustaf-it was on letterman last night and good show.  Dean did alright and a little lightheartedness is good for him now.

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[jravnsbo]

Yes I feel your pain   ( sorry couldn't resist)

Then you know how I feel...

[quote author=jravnsbo

[TheOldLine]

I don't see Kerry winning West Virginia.... in my mind, WV is undergoing the same shift as the rest of rural America in joinging the side of the Republicans in the culture war.    WV should be part of the new "Solid South" for the Republicans for a while.

Most Gore states are solidly Democratic, with the exception of the four out of the five "recount States" won by Gore - OR, NM, IA, and WI, along with MN (which seems to be trending Republican) and PA (which seems to be trending Democratic.)  

I predict that the Democratic nominee hangs onto OR, but loses IA, WI, and MN.  I'm still torn about NM depending on the day of the week... it would be great if it ended in a tie and the Presidency was then decided by a hand of poker.  

TheOldLine

[Gustaf]

Yes I feel your pain   ( sorry couldn't resist)

Then you know how I feel...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's okay...just add on to the pain...

[HoopsCubs]

I don't see Kerry winning West Virginia.... in my mind, WV is undergoing the same shift as the rest of rural America in joinging the side of the Republicans in the culture war.    WV should be part of the new "Solid South" for the Republicans for a while.

Most Gore states are solidly Democratic, with the exception of the four out of the five "recount States" won by Gore - OR, NM, IA, and WI, along with MN (which seems to be trending Republican) and PA (which seems to be trending Democratic.)  

I predict that the Democratic nominee hangs onto OR, but loses IA, WI, and MN.  I'm still torn about NM depending on the day of the week... it would be great if it ended in a tie and the Presidency was then decided by a hand of poker.  

TheOldLine

How do you explain, then, West Virginians electing a Democrat for Governor in 2002, and re-electing both of their Democratic U.S. senators, one in 2002 and the other in 2000?

Also, Bill Clinton won WV and Louisiana with more than 50% of the popular vote in 1996.  Ross Perot did nothing to give Clinton victories in those 2 states - Dole would have lost both of those states even if Perot had not run.

I think Kerry can win WV and NH - 2 states that Gore lost in 2000.  
   

[12th Doctor]

I didn't that is what MN stands for.

I would say MN is first ont he hit list.  Followd in descending order by NM, OR, IA, WI

and PA is a tossup and MI could be.

Don't forget Minnisota.

Oh, didn't see that, sorry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He'll probably ignore it.

[Wakie]

I don't buy into to this "Kerry will lose more states than Gore" school of thought.

Kerry has some distinct advantages which Gore did not.  The whole veteran thing plays well with military, military families, and vets.  He is a Catholic.  The fastest growing group in this country are Hispanics who are, almost universally, Catholic.  He doesn't have the loss of Nader voters the way Gore did.

With that in mind here are the states I think are "in play".

FL -- Clearly.  Add 1/4 of Nader votes to Gore and Gore wins the state.  Kerry should do at least as good as Bush did here, if not better.

PA -- Always a battleground state.  Tends to go Democrat more often though.

OH -- Again, always a battleground state.  Tends to go Republican more often.  Steel tariffs could put it in play.

WV -- Typically a Dem state, went Republican in 2000.  Steel tariffs could switch it back to the Dems.

MN -- Used to be a Dem stronghold but has gradually been drifting Repub.

MO -- Always a battleground.

NM -- Gore barely won it in 2000.  Will definitely be in play again.

AZ -- Used to be a Repub stronghold but has gradually been drifting Dem.  Throw in the vet factor and I wouldn't be shocked to see a Kerry upset here.

NV -- Typically a Repub stronghold.  But in Vegas being the fastest expanding American city (and having a very "liberal" social attitude) one tends to believe this could be changing.  Especially after it got the nation's nuclear waste.

NH & VT -- Hard to predict these states.

Other states I think are minor battlegrounds but less likely to shift include CA, OR, IA, WI, AR, LA, GA, and NJ.

[TheWildCard]

I'd say Kerry could lose Washington, Minn., Wisconsin, Penn, and if it looks bad for him going into the west Cali could also slip from his grasp.

Florida will be a strong Bush state remember last year all the networks gave Gore Florida before the polls were closed and that might have hurt some of Bush's vote.