1964: Whom vs. Whom

[Robespierre's Jaw]

In the Presidential Elections of 1960, The CIA plot to overthrow Cuban leader Fidel Castro succeeds, and Senator Kennedy's plan of liberating Cuba will never be realised. In the 1960 Presidential Election, Vice President Richard Nixon defeats Senator Kennedy in a narrow race by winning Illinois, Missouri and New Jersey by close margins. After being sworn in as President on January 20,1961, President Nixon begins sending in "military advisors" to South Vietnam to help them out in thier war against the North. By late 1961 after an ambush on American troops in South Vietnam, President Nixon declares all out war against the North Vietnamese. A scandal also rocks the Nixon Administration after it's found out that the administration is helping supply Right-Wing Dictatorships in South America. With the War in Vietnam and a major scandal rocking the Nixon White House, President Nixon escapes an assasination attempt while touring Chicago, which leaves the President in bad health. On November 22, 1963, President Nixon announces he won't run for re-election due to health reasons. The 1964 GOP frontrunner is now Vice President Henry Cabot Lodge, but V.P. Lodge is facing a strong challenge from conservative Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. On the Democratic side: 1960 Presidential Nominee John F. Kennedy, Senator Stuart Symington, Senator Lyndon B. Johnson, Senator Hubert Humphrey, Senator Eugene McCarthy and Governor Pat Brown are all candidates for the 1964 Democratic nomination. At the end of the primarys, Senator Lyndon B. Johnson wins the Democratic nomination and selects Hubert Humphrey as his running mate, while at the GOP Convention in San Francisco, V.P. Lodge narrowly wins the nomination and suprisingly selects Senator Margret Chase Smith of Maine as his running mate. Will the Lodge/Smith ticket be able to win the White House under the cloud of Nixon Presidency scandals or will the Johnson/Humphrey ticket be able to end 12 years of Republican rule in Washington? Discuss with maps.

[Kevin]

Lodge makes it.

[Lincoln Republican]

1964 election in response to the "What If" created by Rockefeller Republican

The nation rallies behind Vice President Lodge and the Republican administration, who are campaigning on "Stopping The Spread Of Communism," and "Giving Our Troops In Vietnam The Tools To Do The Job."  Lodge promises to end the war in Vietnam and to bring the troops home in the "very near future."

The administration scandals are laid at the feet of President Richard Nixon, whereas the administration, in the election read Lodge, takes credit for liberating the oppressed peoples of Cuba from a Communist dictatorship.

Lodge campaigns on the necessity for continuity in order to "Defeat The Foes Of Freedom," and the strategy works.

Johnson and Humphrey go back to the Senate, and Margaret Chase Smith makes history by becoming the first female Vice President.

A tough election, and a very close win for Lodge and Smith.

Lodge/Smith                 275
Johnson/Humphrey      263

(Footnote to Rockefeller Republican, although, I do not know why on earth Lodge would pick another New Englander for the ticket.  This may have backfired on him in the election.)

In 1968, Senator Hubert Humphrey goes on to realize his lifelong ambition of being elected President of the United States. 

[Dr. Cynic]

In 1968, Senator Hubert Humphrey goes on to realize his lifelong ambition of being elected President of the United States. 

Well, this is the part of the scenario I like... I'd gladly see Johnson lose in '64 to see HHH realize the goal that eluded him in reality in 1968.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

(Footnote to Rockefeller Republican, although, I do not know why on earth Lodge would pick another New Englander for the ticket.

This may have backfired on him in the election.) Well in this scenario to get away from Nixon Administration scandals, V.P. Lodge selects Margaret Chase Smith of Maine as his running mate to recieve more female voters.

[True Democrat]

380-158

[Robespierre's Jaw]

With America successfully pulling out of Vietnam, and major civil rights legislation being signed by President Lodge in 1965 and 1966, President Lodge goes into the race as the favourite to take out a second consecutive term. President Lodge and Vice President Smith are easily re-nominated on the first ballot, while on the Democratic side: no one wants to enter the "doomed" campaign against the incumbent President so none of the favourites for the nomination campaign like Senators John F. Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon B. Johnson, J. William Fulbright and Eugene McCarthy decline to run. Florida Senator George Smathers enters the campaign and takes out the nomination. Senator Smathers selects Maine Senator Ed Muskie as his running mate. Former Alabama Governor George C. Wallace becomes a third party candidate who wants the government to give more rights to states. Discuss with maps. P.S. So I continue to do this scenario through to 2004?

[johnpressman]

Whoa!  has everyone conceded the 1964 race to Lodge?  A terrible campaigner, a Vice President coming off of the Nixon scandals running against a Southern Democrat?  Does this sound like Ford vs Carter in 1976?

If Lodge became President, I believe that Kennedy, re-nominated in 1964, or  Johnson would have won the Presidency.  In 1964 the Democrats controlled the Congress, the Governorships and the voter registration by overwhelming margins.  Only the issue of Kennedy's Catholicism made 1960 a close race.  By 1964 I believe the electorate would have accepted JFK's religion, even feeling some guilt for it being a factor in his loss.  Kennedy probably renominated, but nonetheless, in your scenario,1964 is a Democratic year.   

[Lincoln Republican]

1968 election in response to the "What If" created by Rockefeller Republican

Wallace almost forces the election into the House, however, President Lodge and Vice President Smith pull out a squeaker.

The Republicans had made an issue of the fact that Smathers had signed "The Southern Manifesto" in 1956, which condemned the U.S. Supreme Court decision to desegregate the public school system.   

The deep south is split between Smathers and Wallace, with Lodge taking Republican strongholds in the upper south.  New England goes entirely with their native son and daughter, Lodge and Smith.  Smathers shows strength in Democratic strongholds in the northeast and does well in the midwest, with Lodge taking the balance in the midwest.  The plains, mountain and western states paint a different picture, remaining faithful to their traditionally Republican voting pattern, with the exceptions of Washington and Hawaii.

The key to the election proved to be the home state of both Vice Presidential nominees, Maine.  The lead in Maine changed hands all through the night until, finally, at 5:14 A.M. the following morning, Maine was put into the Republican column by a margin of 2,374 votes.

Lodge and Smith went on the air at 5:30 A.M., and claimed victory.

Lodge/Smith            270
Smathers/Muskie     235
Wallace/LeMay          33

[johnpressman]

Winfield, you're a pretty savvy guy, but I beg to differ with you on the following:

1. Humphrey would never have become President except through sucession.  Too liberal, too pro-civil rights and, most of all, too strident.  1968 was his best chance and, although the popular vote was close, he lost the Electoral College by a wide margin.  If Wallace had not run, Nixon would have won by a considerable margin.

2.  Romney would never become President, even by succession.  His Mormonism would be a non-starter, even as a Vice Presidential choice.

3. Lodge would never have become President except through succession.   
Too bland, terrible campaigner, and a Republican from a state and region that had turned mostly Democratic by the 1960s. Case in point is the write-in campaign for him 1n 1964.   A perfect "stop-Goldwater" candidate, he could arouse little support for his Presidential run.

4. Margaret Chase Smith and George Schultz would not have been picked as Vice Presidential nominees under any forseeable scenarios.  The 1960s were too conservative to stomach a woman on the ticket and Schultz was an unknown commodity, outside of the political spectrum in your scenario.  Also, bland and unattractive to boot.


5. Smathers, as a (reluctant) signer of the Southern Manifesto, would not be nominated, even as a "sacrifical" candidate. Even if your Party seems to have no chance to win, anything can happen, and your party's nomination for the Presidency is always sought after.  Look at the Republicans in 1944 and 1964  or the Democrats in 1956 or 1972.   

[Lincoln Republican]

johnpressman

Thank you for the compliment and thank you for the very interesting points you have raised.

My posts are in response to the "What If" scenarios written by Rockefeller Republican, who names Lodge and Smith, in this "What If" as the Republican ticket in 1964, and he names Johnson and Humphrey as the Democratic ticket. 

Rockefeller Republican continues the "What If" to 1968, and names Smathers and Muskie as the Democratic ticket in 1968, names Wallace as an independent, and names Lodge and Smith as the Republican ticket in 1968.

I talked about Romney and Schultz in another thread, "Alternate 1972:  President Humphrey" by thefactor, again, responding to a "What If."

Differing viewpoints are always interesting, thought provoking, and worthwhile.  Thank you for raising these points in your posting.