1964: President Goldwater

[True Democrat]

Presidents:
John F. Kennedy (D): January 20, 1961 - January 20, 1965
     Defeated Richard Nixon in 1960
Barry Goldwater (R): January 20, 1965 - January 20, 1973
     Defeated John F. Kennedy in 1964
     Defeated Eugene McCarthy in 1968
Edmund Muskie (D): January 20, 1973 - August 21, 1973
     Defeated George H.W. Bush in 1972
     Assassinated on August 21, 1973
Barry Goldwater Jr. (R): August 21, 1973 - ?

Vice Presidents:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D): January 20, 1961 - January 20, 1965
     Defeated Henry Lodge in 1960
William Scranton (R): January 20, 1965 - Jaunary 20, 1969
     Defeated Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1969 - January 20, 1973
     Defeated George McGovern in 1968
Birch Bayh (D): January 20, 1973 - June 29, 1973
     Defeated Bob Dole in 1972
     Resigned on June 29, 1973
Vacant: June 29, 1973 - October 23, 1973
John Heinz (R): October 23, 1973 - ?

Senate:

After 1962 Elections:
Democrats: 66 (+3)
Republicans: 33 (-3)

1964:
Democrats: 58 (-8)
Republicans: 42 (+8)

1966:
Democrats: 57 (-1)
Republicans: 43 (+1)

1968:
Republicans: 50 (+7)
Democrats: 50 (-7)
With Vice President Bush breaking the tie, it is a Republican Senate.

1970:
Democrats: 55 (+5)
Republicans: 44 (-6)
Indendents: 1 (+1)

1972:
Democrats: 54 (-1)
Republicans: 45 (+1)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

1974:
Democrats: 62 (+8)
Republicans: 37 (-8)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

1976:
Democrats: 59 (-3)
Repupublicans: 40 (+3)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

House:

After 1962 Elections:
Democrats: 259 (-4)
Republicans: 176 (+2)

1964:
Democrats: 227 (-32)
Republicans: 207 (+31)
Independents: 1 (+1)

1966:
Democrats: 228 (+1)
Republicans: 206 (-1)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

1968:
Republicans: 224 (+17)
Democrats: 211 (-17)
Independents: 0 (-1)

1970:
Democrats: 225 (+14)
Republicans: 208 (-16)
Independents: 2 (+2)

1972:
Republicans: 221 (+13)
Democrats: 213 (-12)
Independents: 1 (-1)

1974:
Democrats: 262 (+49)
Republicans: 172 (-49)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

1976:
Democrats: 252 (-10)
Republicans: 183 (+11)
Independents: 0 (-1)


After shooter Lee Harvey Oswald assassinated Texas Governor John Connally on November 22, 1963, the next bullet hit Kennedy's arm.  Kennedy was rushed to the hospital; the bullet was removed, and Kennedy was released within two days.

The next year, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater easily won the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention, over moderates Scranton and Rockefeller.  Goldwater first wants to ask Representative William Miller to run for VP, but Goldwater is advised to pick a better known person.  Goldwater decides to choose Governor William Scranton of Pennsylvania.

Kennedy unanimously receives the Democratic nomination.

Despite the advice of his campaign advisors, Kennedy refuses to run a negative campaign against Goldwater, citing Goldwater as a close friend.  Goldwater takes charge of the campaign.  He shows how he wants to balance the budget and criticizes Kennedy for being too soft on communism.  After two spirited debates, Kennedy is still leading by election.  Kennedy picks up on this new theme of Goldwater as being too conservative and runs with it.  By election day, Kennedy is expected to easily win.  Low turnout (around 55%) is expected because the media has painted the election as Kennedy not being able to lose.  By 10 PM, turnout is reported as low as 52%.  Kennedy supporters are not coming out to vote, and the election is extremely close.  Kennedy was able to hold on to the South as he held off his civil rights legislation till after the election (also saving Goldwater a very embarrassing politically costly vote).  The unpledged elector vote was still present, but it went way down in most states.  Goldwater has tremendous success out West.  In the end, Goldwater's very close win in Pennsylvania put him over the top.


Goldwater/Scranton: 50.01%, 278 electoral votes
Kennedy/Johnson: 49.19%, 260 electoral votes
Unpledged Elector: 0.38%, 0 electoral votes

Five Best States:

Goldwater:
1. Nebraska (63%)
2. Arizona (62%)
3. Idaho (62%)
4. South Dakota (59%)
5. Kansas (58%)

Kennedy:
DC (69%)
1. Massachusetts (64%)
2. Rhode Island (62%)
3. Hawaii (56%)
4. West Virginia (55%)
5. Georgia (54%)

Unpledged Elector:
1. Mississippi (33%)
2. South Carolina (29%)
3. Louisiana (17%)
4. Alabama (11%)
5. Arkansas (8%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Basically there are a couple things wrong with the liklihood.

1. Goldwater, I doubt would have run against Kennedy

2. If Kennedy holds onto the south in spite of his civil rights support, given how popular he became in the North because of it, he wins the election (and probably wins big).

[johnpressman]

Hey Polnut, why wouldn't Goldwater have run against Kennedy?  From what I have read, JFK was hoping that Goldwater would have been the GOP nominee.  Do you believe that if JFK had not been killed in Dallas, Goldwater would not have won the nomination?

Also, I do not believe Barry could have won the 1964 election under almost any scenario one could dream up. He might have won a couple more southern states against JFK, especially if LBJ was not the VP choice in 1964, but that's about it.

[True Democrat]

Basically there are a couple things wrong with the liklihood.

1. Goldwater, I doubt would have run against Kennedy

2. If Kennedy holds onto the south in spite of his civil rights support, given how popular he became in the North because of it, he wins the election (and probably wins big).

He holds off on supporting civil rights in hopes to win the election.  If you watched the HBO documentary Mr. Conservative, about Goldwater, you would've seen that Goldwater and Kennedy wanted to run against each other.  When Kennedy was killed, Goldwater wasn't going to run anymore, but the conservatives forced him into it.

[True Democrat]

As the 1968 presidential election approached, Vietnam was heating up.  President Goldwater's approval had gone way down because of the prolonged war.  His average approval was now at 40%.  Furthermore, northern liberals were angry at his veto of the Civil Rights Act of 1966, which was overridden by a vote of 70-30 in the Senate and a similar margin in the House.

Meanwhile, Vice President Scranton decided he was done with politics and would not be renominated as Vice President (though he would serve out the remainder of his term).  Many analysts believe that Goldwater's pick for VP could make or break the election.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, former Vice President Johnson was considered the leading contender, but after unexpectedly losing the New Hampshire primary to Senator Eugene McCarthy, he dropped out.  McCarthy was not clearly the frontrunner, running an a very liberal, anti-Vietnam campaign.  John Kennedy's brother, former attorney general, and the losing candidate in the 1964 Senate race in New York.  However, when the establishment began to line up behind the primary winning McCarthy, Kennedy also backed out.  At the Democratic convention in July, McCarthy won the nomination easily on the first ballot.  However, he had trouble finding a VP candidate.  It seemed like no one wanted to run with him, as he was greatly losing momentum in the polls.  Finally, McCarthy convinced South Dakota Senator George McGovern to run with him.  With this choice, McCarthy cemented the anti-Vietnam tone on his campaign.

McCarthy's choice for VP and his overall ticket did not play well with the American people.  After the Democratic convention finished, a Gallup poll showed the following:

Goldwater/?: 49%
McCarthy/McGovern: 33%
Other/Undecided: 18%

Although Goldwater's numbers were not very high, McCarthy was not able to capitalize on this.

Going into the Republican convention Goldwater's lead increased to 55-30. It was widely expected that Goldwater would choose either Margaret Chase Smith or Ronald Reagan for Vice President.  However, on the second night, to the shock of the nation, Goldwater chose little known Representative George H.W. Bush, son of Senator Prescott Bush.  Bush had been elected to the House from Texas in 1966.  In 1964, he came within 2% of beating Senator Yarlborough.  Bush had been a Navy pilot in WWII and was only 44 years old at this time.

To be continued. . .

[True Democrat]

Goldwater's pick of the very young Bush surprised many people, including Bush himself.  After a slight post-convention boost in the polls, Goldwater's numbers began to slip.  At Labor Day, Gallup released this poll:

Goldwater's Approval:
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 48%

Goldwater/Bush: 46%
McCarthy/McGovern: 39%
Other/Undecided: 15%

McCarthy's Approval:
Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 40%

Because of his ability to portray McCarthy negatively, Goldwater is able to lead in the polls.

In early October, McCarthy launches a comprehensive plan on civil rights.  This is very popular among Northerners, but he loses all support in the South, which is now likely to go for Goldwater.

McCarthy narrows Goldwater's by election day.  Pre-election polls show Goldwater leading 49-46.  However Goldwater's GOTV vote is far superior to McCarthy's, and as the numbers come in, it is evident Goldwater will win by more than 3.  Robert Byrd's public endorsement of Goldwater helps him secure much of the South.  Goldwater's best region outside the South is the West.  McCarthy does well in the Northeast and keeps part of the midwest competitive.


Goldwater/Bush: 56.96%, 507 electoral votes
McCarthy/McGovern: 42.50%, 31 electoral votes

Best 10 States:

Goldwater:
1. Georgia (75%)
2. South Carolina (74%)
3. Florida (72%)
4. Mississippi (69%)
5. Arizona (68%)
6. Alabama (68%)
7. Louisiana (66%)
8. Wyoming (65%)
9. Nebraska (64%)
10. Utah (64%)

McGovern:
DC (78%)
1. Massachusetts (55%)
2. Rhode Island (55%)
3. Minnesota (54%)
4. New York (49%)
5. Connecticut (48%)
6. New Jersey (47%)
7. Maryland (47%)
8. Wisconsin (46%)
9. Michigan (45%)
10. Oregon (44%)

[True Democrat]

1972 Election

Voters by now are extremely dissatisfied with Vietnam.  Although Goldwater remains relatively popular (around 50%), his chief promoter of the war in Vietnam (Vice President Bush) takes most of the heat.

In the Republican nomination, Bush sails through the primaries and easily captures the nomination.  At the convention he first asks California Governor Ronald Reagan to be VP, but Reagan refuses.  The conventional wisdom on why he refused is that by the time he would be able to run for President in 1980, he would be too old.  Instead, Bush turns to the moderate Senator Bob Dole of Kansas who gladly accepts.

[True Democrat]

Because the Republicans look vulnerable in this election cycle, the Democratic establishment decides to put its support behind one candidate early on.

The major contenders for the Democratic nomination are Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, and former Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine.  The establishment fears McGovern is too liberal, and they don't want to run another Kennedy, so they settle on Muskie.  Muskie easily wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Illinois, though he loses Florida to perennial Southern candidate George McGovern.  After tight win over McGovern in Wisconsin, Muskie goes on to lose MA to Kennedy, while winning Pennsylvania on the same day.  After winning Indiana and Ohio, Muskie easily captures the nomination.  At the convention he is split between hawk Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson of Washington and Senator Bayh of Indiana, so he allows the delegates to choose.  On the second ballot, Bayh wins the Vice Presidential nomination.

The first Gallup poll released after the Democratic convention shows Muskie way up over Vice President Bush:

Muskie/Bayh: 52%
Bush/Dole: 41%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Throughout the campaign, Muskie and Bayh criticize the Vice President for being responsible for the current deadlock in the War in Vietnam.  They also attack President Goldwater's conservative views, including his comments to possibly use nuclear weapons in Vietnam.  By election day, Muskie is still leading 56-44.  As the results come in, the election is slightly closer than expected, but Muskie cruises to a fairly easily victory.  Muskie does better than McCarthy in the South, but still cannot carry on state.  Muskie's best areas are in the Northeast and Midwest, even pulling upsets in North Dakota wher a farm crisis has hit.  Bush carries the South and most of the West.


Muskie/Bayh: 54.54%, 334 electoral votes
BushDole: 44.25%, 204 electoral votes

Best 10 States:

Muskie:
DC (81%)
1. Massachusetts (64%)
2. Maine (62%)
3. Rhode Island (61%)
4. Minnesota (59%)
5. Connecticut (58%)
6. Hawaii (58%)
7. West Virginia (58%)
8. Indiana (57%)
9. Washington (56%)
10. Maryland (56%)

Bush:
1. Mississippi (65%)
2. Florida (64%)
3. Kansas (64%)
4. Utah (63%)
5. Alabama (63%)
6. Texas (63%)
7. Arizona (62%)
8. Idaho (59%)
9. Alaska (59%)
10. South Carolina (58%)

[True Democrat]

After only 6 months in office, Vice President Bayh is forced to resign on June 29, 1973.  His resignation involves a scandal that is far reaching and involves defense contracts.  Although the details are not released publicly for years, the Vice President supposedly violated ethics laws by guaranteeing defense contracts to certain companies.  These contracts had something to do with the US pulllout from Vietnam, which took place only two months after Muskie took office.  Many spectulate that Bayh is actually innocent and that the President or Secretary of Defense are to blame, but Bayh gets the heat and is forced to resign.  After considering many options, President Muskie sends his choice for Vice President to Congress.  He chooses Senator Henry Jackson, who was the runner up for the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination in 1972.  President Muskie makes a public announcement on August 11, 1973, but because Congress is in recess, they cannot begin hearings until mid September.  The President holds off on submitting official paperwork to Congress until the recess ends to let the scandal cool down.  Meanwhile, the President goes back to Maine for the recess.

On August 21st, while walking around outside his house in Maine, President Muskie is shot in the chest by a Vietnamese refugee from Saigon.  This refugee, who came to protest outside the President's residence to protest the US pullout from Vietnam.  He shot Muskie because he believed the US pullout was going to kill thousands of Vietnamese who were stranded in Saigon.  The President is immediately rushed to a local hospital, but dies in the ambulance on the ride over.  When the news reaches the nation, people looks towards the extremely young Speaker of the House as the next President.

The Speaker of the House is Barry Goldwater Jr, who just turned 35 years old on July 15th.  The story of how Goldwater rose to be Speaker is truly remarkable.  After being elected in 1964 in California on his father's coattails, Goldwater used his father's political influence to quickly rise through the ranks.  After the Republicans got a surprising majority after the 1968 elections, Goldwater became Majority Whip, again thanks to his father's influence.  After the Republicans lost the Congress in 1970 (Goldwater's approval was 35% at this point), Goldwater Jr. ran for Minority Leader after Gerald Ford decided to retire (he would later run for Senate in Michigan).  Goldwater won a close victory in his effort to become Minority Leader.  When the Republicans took back the Congress in 1972, in large part thanks to Goldwater's efforts, he became Speaker.

Here is the makeup of the Congress every year since the 1962 elections:

House of Representatives:

After 1962 Elections:
Democrats: 259 (-4)
Republicans: 176 (+2)

1964:
Democrats: 227 (-32)
Republicans: 207 (+31)
Independents: 1 (+1)

Goldwater's upset over Kennedy translated to a huge Republican gain in the House.

1966:
Democrats: 228 (+1)
Republicans: 206 (-1)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

Due to Goldwater's continued courting of the South, the Republicans were able to counter the moderate Democratic gain in the North by picking a lot of seats in the South.

1968:
Republicans: 224 (+17)
Democrats: 211 (-17)
Independents: 0 (-1)

Due to Goldwater's landslide, the Republicans were able to take back the House with a very small majority for the first time since the early 50s.

1970:
Democrats: 225 (+14)
Republicans: 208 (-16)
Independents: 2 (+2)

Due to the unpopular war in Vietnam, the Republicans lose Congress and two of their own members even become Independents (though one still caucuses with the Republicans).  Goldwater Jr. is now elected Minority Leader.  He has a two prong strategy for being elected Minority Leader.  Behind the scenes, he uses his father's influence, but publicly he distances himself from his father and puts himself out there as a young candidate with new ideas.  Goldwater Jr. is 32 at the time.

1972:
Republicans: 221 (+13)
Democrats: 213 (-12)
Independents: 1 (-1)

Goldwater fights a national campaign against the Democratic Congress and criticizes them for making spending out of control.  He also distances himself from Vice President Bush and is able to secure an even smaller Republican majority.  He is then elected Speaker at age 34.

On August 21, 1973, President Barry Goldwater Jr. is inaugurated at the age of 35 at his home in California by a local judge.

[True Democrat]

As President Goldwater (or as some call him, Junior) settles in at the White House, he realizes a number of hardships that have arisen from his Presidency.  After the period of mourning for President Muskie has finished, Goldwater is stuck with a Democratic administration and no Vice President.  Many call on him to appoint Scoop Jackson as Vice President and then resign, as it is not his place to continue Muskie's legacy.  However, on the advice of his father, Goldwater decides to stay in power.  Over the next month, he slowly assembles a new administration, though he keeps about half of Muskie's secretaries in the cabinet.  However, Goldwater's hardest decision is who to appoint as Vice President.

Goldwater considers a number of options, mostly Republicans, although Scoop Jackson is always kept on the shortlist.  In the end, Goldwater chooses moderate respected Republican John Heinz III, Represenative from  Pennsylvania.  Heinz, who was elected in a special election in 1971, is a couple of months younger than President Goldwater.  (Heinz turned 35 in October 73).  By going with a young, relative outsider, Goldwater hopes to pick someone without too much baggage to win approval from the Democratic Senate.  He also wants public support for this nomination.  Many pundits question whether Heinz was the best choice.

Throughout October, hearings are held in House and Senate.  On October 20, 1973, Heinz wins approval from the House with this vote:

Overall:
Approve: 315
Disapprove: 120
Abstain: 3

Republicans:
Approve: 219
Disapprove: 2
Abstain: 0

Democrats:
Approve: 92
Disapprove: 118
Abstain: 3

Independents:
Approve: 1
Disapprove: 0
Abstain: 0

In the Senate, Heinz has a slightly tougher time, but he nonetheless wins approval on the next day:

Overall:
Approve: 61
Disapprove: 38
Abstain: 1

Republicans:
Approve: 44
Disapprove: 0
Abstain: 1

Democrats:
Approve: 17
Disapprove: 37
Abstain: 0

Independents:
Approve: 0
Disapprove: 1
Abstain: 0

Althought the Senate gave its approval on October 21st, John Heinz is not inaugurated as Vice President until October 23, 1973, his 35th birthday.

[Lincoln Republican]

A very interesting and intriguing story, TD.

Keep up the excellent work.

[True Democrat]

As I do with all of my timelines, here are all the Presidents and Vice Presidents thus far:

Presidents:
John F. Kennedy (D): January 20, 1961 - January 20, 1965
     Defeated Richard Nixon in 1960
Barry Goldwater (R): January 20, 1965 - January 20, 1973
     Defeated John F. Kennedy in 1964
     Defeated Eugene McCarthy in 1968
Edmund Muskie (D): January 20, 1973 - August 21, 1973
     Defeated George H.W. Bush in 1972
     Assassinated on August 21, 1973
Barry Goldwater Jr. (R): August 21, 1973 - ?

Vice Presidents:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D): January 20, 1961 - January 20, 1965
     Defeated Henry Lodge in 1960
William Scranton (R): January 20, 1965 - Jaunary 20, 1969
     Defeated Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1969 - January 20, 1973
     Defeated George McGovern in 1968
Birch Bayh (D): January 20, 1973 - June 29, 1973
     Defeated Bob Dole in 1972
     Resigned on June 29, 19733
Vacant: June 29, 1973 - October 23, 1973
John Heinz (R): October 23, 1973 - ?

[True Democrat]

In November of 1973, Gallup releases an approval poll of President Goldwater and Vice President Heinz:

Goldwater:
Approve: 60%
Disapprove: 30%

Heinz:
Approve: 27%
Disapprove: 25%

Many Democrats are upset with Goldwater for not appointing Jackson and stepping down.  They feel he has hijacked a Democratic administration.  Heinz no one knows enough about to approve or disapprove, but Democrats are still angry at him for taking Jackson's spot.

For the next year, Goldwater does not lead a very public presidency.  He takes a back seat to Congress.  One thing he does do is he votes a minimum wage increase citing no need for it in the current economy.  This veto is overridden in the Senate, but fails by three votes in the House.  The Democrats create great public outrage over this.  It is also discovered that Goldwater has secretly been sending aid to South Vietnamese guerilla groups.  By November 1974, his approval is down to 40%.

In the 1974 midterms, the Democrats win big:

House:
Democrats: 262 (+49)
Republicans: 172 (-49)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

A Democratic majority in the House has been secured for years to come.

Senate:
Democrats: 62 (+8)
Republicans: 37 (-8)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

Here is a history of the Senate:

After 1962 Elections:
Democrats: 66 (+3)
Republicans: 33 (-3)

1964:
Democrats: 58 (-8)
Republicans: 42 (+8)

1966:
Democrats: 57 (-1)
Republicans: 43 (+1)

1968:
Republicans: 50 (+7)
Democrats: 50 (-7)
With Vice President Bush breaking the tie, it is a Republican Senate.

1970:
Democrats: 55 (+5)
Republicans: 44 (-6)
Indendents: 1 (+1)

1972:
Democrats: 54 (-1)
Republicans: 45 (+1)
Independents: 1 (+/-0)

Updated histories of both Houses of Congress and all the Presidents will be added to the first post.

[True Democrat]

In the race for the Democratic nomination in 1976, early polls show Jackson leading all competitors by large margins.  He also leading President Goldwater with 60% of the vote.  However, in February 1976, only days before the New Hampshire primary, Jackson announces he will not seek the Presidency of the United States, citing family reasons.  This leaves the race as a total jumble.  No other major Democrat signed up for the primaries, and with the new McGovern rules in place, it would be hard for any Democrat to win without the primaries.

In a matter of days, George McGovern jumps into the race.  Over a number of no-name Democrats, he wins the New Hampshire primary with 60%.  Although the Democratic establishment is not happy with him, he still goes onto to win 8 out of next 11 primaries.  His momentum is now unstoppable.  At the convention, Democrats call on him to pick a moderate choice for VP, but he refuses.  He chooses Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, who has been known as one of the most liberal members of the Senate.

Goldwater unanimously receives the Republican nomination, while Heinz has some trouble with the VP nomination, he still wins it on the first ballot with 3/4 of the delegates.

After the convention, the race shows Goldwater leading:
Goldwater/Heinz: 51%
McGovern/Kennedy: 45%
Other/Undecided: 4%

McGovern is suffering from the same thing that caused McCarthy's loss in 1968 to Goldwater's father.  McGovern has a liberal ticketmate and cannot appeal to the center.

However, McGovern goes on the attack.  He attacks Goldwater for vetoing the very popular minimum wage increase (his veto was overrideen after the 74 elections).  He also is critical of not stepping down after President Muskie's death.  McGovern actually names his platform the "Muskie Agenda".  A poll released in the beginning of October shows the following:

McGovern/Kennedy: 49%
Goldwater/Heinz: 39%
Other/Undecided: 12%

McGovern has successsfully turned the campaign around, for now.  However, it is now Goldwater's turn to control the campaign.  Goldwater focuses on the youthfullness of his campaign.  Here are the ages of all the major party candidates at the time of inauguration in 1977:

Goldwater: 38
Heinz: 38

McGovern: 54
Kennedy: 44

Although McGovern and Kennedy are not old by any means for President and VP candidates, Goldwater and Heinz are so young they are able to exploit this weakness.  Furthermore, Goldwater cites the growing economy as evidence of his progrss.

Final polls show the race has tightened to 49-46 on election day, with McGovern leading.  However, like his father, Goldwater has built up a very good ground game and is able to make it close.  Undecideds break for Goldwater.  In the Northeast, Goldwater does worse compared compared to Bush, and loses every state but Delaware.  McGovern is not as strong as expected in the midwest, and in the South McGovern loses from Muskie's numbers.  Meanwhile out west, Goldwater except on the West coast where his numbers slip.  It all comes down to Ohio, which McGovern wins by 20,000, winning the election.


Goldwater/Heinz: 49.89%, 283 electoral votes
McGovern/Kennedy: 49.21%, 255 electora votes

Best 10 States:

Goldwater:
1. Mississippi (67%)
2. Florida (66%)
3. Alabama (66%)
4. Idaho (65%)
5. Arizona (65%)
6. Utah (64%)
7. Oklahoma (64%)
8. Louisiana (64%)
9. Alaska (63%)
10. Georgia (62%)

McGovern:
DC (83%)
1. Massachusetts (65%)
2. Rhode Island (64%)
3. Minnesota (61%)
4. Maine (59%)
5. New York (58%)
6. Maryland (57%)
7. West Virginia (57%)
8. Oregon (55%)
9. Connecticut (55%)
10. New Jersey (54%)

[True Democrat]

President Goldwater began his term with a number of legislative proposals.  First, he wanted to increase the defense budget to better combat communism around the world.  He also wanted the 22nd amendment repealed.  Many saw this as Goldwater wanting to seek a third term, but shortly after announcing his intention of persuading congress to repeal this amendment, Goldwater announced he would not run in 1980 (under the 22nd amendment, Goldwater would have to resign part way through this term in order to meet the 10 year mark).  Public polling on whether to repeal this amendment was currently 60-40 in favor, mostly due to Goldwater's tactics in getting.

On March 4, 1977, the Senate surprisingly votes in favor of 27th amendment to repeal the 22nd amendment with this vote.  The odd thing is that Democrats and Republicans vote similarly:

Overall:
Aye: 71
Nay: 29

Democrats:
Aye: 43
Nay: 16

Republicans:
Aye: 28
Nay: 12

Independents:
Aye: 0
Nay: 1

Two weeks later the House votes in the affirmative by an even larger margin, though there is a great different between Republicans and Democrats in this house:

Overall:
Aye: 337
Nay: 98

Democrats:
Aye: 162
Nay: 90

Republicans:
Aye: 175
Nay: 8

[True Democrat]

The Senate and House set a 7 year deadline for 27th amendment to be ratified by the states.  Within a year, 40 states have ratified it, more than the 38 needed for approval.

As 1980 approaches, most anaysts assume that Vice President Heinz will easily win the Republican nomination with President Goldwater's help.  However, the establishment feels Heinz is too young and inexperienced to win the Presidency.  Notable contenders for the nomination include former Vice President George H.W. Bush, Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, and Representative Jack Kemp of New York.  In the Iowa primary, Baker finishes first, though he receives only 27%.  In New Hampshire, Heinz and Bush battle it out, but Bush wins with 32%.  Bush keeps the momentum and goes on to win most of the other primaries.  At the convention, it is expected that he will choose Howard Baker for VP, but he instead asks Vice President Heinz to continue serving as Vice President.  Heinz agrees.

In the Democratic nomination, 1976 VP candidate Ted Kennedy easily captures the nomination.  For VP he chooses the youthful, moderate Senator Gary Hart of Colorado.

After the conventions, Bush is in the lead:
Bush/Heinz: 52%
Kennedy/Hart: 42%
Other/Undecided: 6%

However, Kennedy offers a new vision of America and makes it seem as though Bush is from the generation beforehand.  Furthermore, Kennedy puts Bush out as a Goldwater clone.  He says if Bush is elected, it will just be another Goldwater presidency (Bush was Goldwater's VP and 1972 presidential candidate).  With huge inflation and generally bad economic data for September, Kennedy begins to lead 55-45 by the beginning of October.  In mid-October, a scandal breaks in the Bush campaign.  Documents are released to the press showing how Bush was connected to the scandal that brought down Vice President Bayh in 1973.  Before Muskie took office, Bush coordinated the defense contracts with Bayh to ensure Bush too would make a profit.  Bush refuses to drop out of the race, and by election day Kennedy is leading 59-41.

Kennedy sweeps the Northeast, does better than expected in the Midwest, and makes huge gains in the West.  Even in the South, Kennedy does extremely well and even wins a couple of states.


Kennedy/Hart: 60.03%, 454 electoral votes
Bush/Heinz: 39.10%, 84 electoral votes