Analysis of House Races- 2004

[NHPolitico]

Utah has a Democrat as one of it's representatives?
Matheson is toast.

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

 

There's talk that Cooksey could run against Alexander. I'm not sure how much of a slam dunk that would be, but the divided GOP electorate seriously boosted Alexander.

[NHPolitico]

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

Good Picks. Not certain abt the first though. Know a bit abt it-being my home state Alexander represents a decently GOP (though less so after gerrymandering) district. Still he has one of the most conservative records for a democratic representative so he's looking to the future. Decent grassroots operation too.
My guess is the GOP's best shot to retain this district (retiring GOP Rep. Cooksey held it till 2002) was to win it in 2002. Alexander will give them a hell of a fight next year.
Its still competitive but frankly leans a bit democratic for 2004!

Rodgers is more vulnerable but he was an Alabama Senate minority leader and has a lot of grassroots strength. The district is pretty much split even between the parties and he won it against a strong contender in 2002 (Joe Turnham I think) Next year he will have the advantages of incumbency behind him and that's a big factor in the South.

Max Burns is endangered- thats for sure. Its a VERY democratic district and two years isnt enough time to consolidate. He certainly won't face a ridiculous candidate like Walker next time around Still he has influence in congress....President of the GOP freshman class and all He has been effective for his district and He wont plan on giving up his seat easy- thats for sure!!

Look forward to others responses as well.

I'll take your word for it that Burns is the president of the 02 class. It's odd, though, because I figured such an honor was given to congressmen who were good bets for re-election. Jeb Bradley in NH-1 is the secretary of the class and will coast to re-election this year.

[NHPolitico]

The Texas Gerrymander in theory acts as a safeguard for the GOP. The Dems might make some strong gains elsewhere, but because of the Texan plan, will struggle to get the GOP majority below 5.

You'd have to see a huge anti-Bush tide to get there. There are enough districts split 40-40 and a fight for the middle 20 that it could happen. It would have to be a totally one-sided election result.

You'd boot out Heather Wilson, Anne Northup, Charlie Bass, the Iowa GOP delegation, freshmen like Virginia Brown-Waite, Republicans in Gore seats like Gerlach, Johnson, Simmons and so on.

[NHPolitico]

Hall was just about the most conservative Democrat since Thurmond switched to the GOP...
A Democrat in name only, now a Republican because he was afraid of losing his seat.

If he wants to die in Congress as a Republican, that's fine with me. The TX-GOP and the NRCC can spend the money on some other race.

[NHPolitico]

as to person about IA delegation.  They are safe seats, dems tried last time hard and were all defeated soundly.  They may have a chance in 2006 as Rep King ( west IA) and Nussle , budget chairman  I think, wboth have expressed interest in running for Governor.

2002 was a good year for the GOP. If you had a similarly bad year for the GOP, some could fall.

[NHPolitico]

I've no problem with Hall crossing the floor, and to be honest he should have done it years ago.

I think if he thought there was a chance that the party would go in Lieberman's direction and not Dean's, there wasn't anything peculiar about waiting.

[NHPolitico]

You just se eit in the South, Dems are discouraged.  You have 5 people retiring as they know that their party will not gaint he majority int he Senate.  

Next int eh House Hall tried to move them more center, but failed.  Seeing that the Dems would be int he minority for along period , plus redistrcting he bolted.

I think of the true retirements (not those leaving for higher races), the Dems are way behind of the GOP. I can't understand why there aren't more Dems retiring.

[NHPolitico]

Bobby Jindal is looking to restart his Louisiana political career...

Bobby and Supriya Jindal have put their Highland Road home on the market and have bought a house in Kenner.  The unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor is making the move with an eye toward running in the First Congressional District this fall. A source close to him said he will state his intentions by the end of the month.

[NHPolitico]

Sears bids to challenge (VA Congessman) Scott in a David vs. Goliath battle
Virginian-Pilot | Katrice Hardy

RICHMOND -- Not far from the state Capitol building where she made history three years ago, former Del. Winsome E. Sears announced Monday that she will challenge U.S. Rep. Robert C. "Bobby" Scott for the 3rd Congressional District seat this fall. Sears is a Republican. Scott is a Democrat.


Flanked by her three teenage daughters, her husband and Attorney General Jerry H. Kilgore, Sears said that Scott has lost touch with the beliefs of his constituents.

The congressional seat is in a majority-black district that stretches from Richmond to Norfolk. About 57 percent of its residents are black.

Scott believes that America should support same-sex marriages, Sears said. He also has voted against strengthening the nation's borders, she said.

"I want what you want, a voice in Washington that truly represents the people" Sears said. "I am saying that we can do better. We must do better. We will do better, and I will do better, and that's why I'm running."

The former Marine and Norfolk resident said her political track record qualifies her to serve in Congress. And she says she can challenge a "Goliath," Sears said, referring to how some people view Scott.

"Yes, that Goliath is big, but still he's just a man," Sears said.

Scott was unavailable for comment Monday.

[NHPolitico]

It's official. Jindal wants to start back on the road to statewide office in Louisiana...

Jindal to seek Vitter's congressional seat
The Associated Press
29 Jan 2004
By DOUG SIMPSON

METAIRIE, La. (AP) — Former state and federal health official Bobby Jindal said Thursday he will run for the U.S. House seat now held by fellow Republican David Vitter, who is running for the Senate.

Vitter, who hopes to succeed retiring Democrat John Breaux, joined Jindal and endorsed his candidacy during a news conference at Grace King High School.

Jindal, who lost to Kathleen Blanco in last year's runoff in the race for governor, recently announced that he was moving his family from Baton Rouge to Kenner in the 1st Congressional District.

"When God closes one door, he opens another. I understand there's a job opening here," Jindal said.

The district covers much of suburban New Orleans and is a Republican stronghold.

State Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, has also declared his candidacy for the seat and Rep. A.G. Crowe, R-Pearl River, is expected to announce whether he will run on Monday.

A spokesman for former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, now serving a federal prison term for bilking supporters and cheating on his taxes, said Duke might also make the race, although it would be difficult to raise sufficient campaign money. Duke finished third when he ran for the seat in a 1999 election.

"I don't think David Duke represents the best of what this district has to offer," Jindal, the son of Indian immigrants, said when asked about a possible candidacy by the white supremacist.

Jindal said he would offer an official platform later but said he already knows that he will focus on five areas:

_ support of President Bush's war on terrorism.

_ health care improvements.

_ controlling government spending.

_ social issues including his anti-abortion stance.

_ promoting improvements in the district including attracting jobs, protecting military bases, flood control and coastal erosion.

[NHPolitico]

Dunn says she won't seek return to Congress
Seattle Times
Friday, January 30, 2004
Associated Press


OLYMPIA — U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn, Washington state's senior Republican in Congress and a favorite of the Bush White House, told The Associated Press tonight that she's retiring from politics.

Dunn, 61, who had been courted by President Bush to run for the U.S. Senate this fall, said she has decided to serve out her sixth House term and then retire from public life.

She cited family considerations — she's newly remarried — and a desire for one more career after politics. She endorsed no successor in her Republican-leaning 8th District in Seattle's eastern suburbs.


"It's time for me to move on, probably to the private sector," she said in an interview. "It's hard. It's hard to think of giving it up. It has been such a positive thing in my life. But at some time, I will have to. This feels like the time."

Dunn was chairwoman of the state Republican Party for a decade before winning her congressional seat in 1992. The Bellevue native was regularly re-elected by large margins, and had been a heavy favorite to win again this year. She already had amassed a warchest of about $1.5 million.

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Info on the probable Dem nominee from last September. This will probably be a Dem pick-up.

Dunn draws challenger from high-tech world: Mercer Island attorney running for U.S. House
King County Journal
9-3-03
Chris Winters


Former computer industry executive Alex Alben has launched a bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn in the 8th congressional district. Dunn has held the seat for 12 years.

The 45-year-old Mercer Island resident said he'll emphasize jobs and economic growth in his campaign.

Alben said he has the right combination of business sense and progressive values that will resonate in the 8th, which ranges from Bellevue to Mount Rainier National Park, including Issaquah, Sammamish, Mercer Island and part of Redmond and Renton.

He's an intellectual property attorney who spent 10 years in the local high-tech industry, most recently as vice president of public policy at RealNetworks Inc. He also favors of environmental protection and women's rights.

``That mix really describes that district, and that's me,'' Alben said.

He's also a mountain climber, an apt metaphor given the competition he's going up against.

Dunn, 61, has handily won re-election in the largely Republican district, defeating Democrat Heidi Behrens-Benedict, a Bellevue interior designer, in each of the past three elections.

An influential senior member of her caucus, she has serving as a member of the Ways and Means Committee, vice chairwoman of the new Homeland Security Committee and a member of the caucus campaign team. She was the top choice of her party and the White House to challenge Sen. Patty Murray next year, but she declined. ``It just makes sense, when you look at where you can best use your skills, influence, time and clout,'' Dunn explained at the time.

Dunn also is a seasoned fund-raiser who is well-connected to the Bush Administration. As of June 30, she had approximately $1.1 million in the bank.

Alben thinks Dunn is vulnerable this time.

``She's a party loyalist. She voted with Tom DeLay 95 percent of the time in the last Congress,'' he said, referring to the GOP House majority leader.

By contrast, he said he's not a politician, and would do what's best for the district, regardless of what the party chairman thinks.

``I come at things from a business point of view and from being a dad with school age kids,'' he said. Dunn has two adult children.

Alben said he plans to spend $2 million on the campaign, but didn't directly answer when asked if he'll self-fund the effort, as his old RealNetworks colleague Maria Cantwell did in her winning Senate bid in 2000.

He said he wrote out a $100,000 check to kickstart the campaign.

Danielle Holland, Dunn's spokeswoman, declined to comment on Alben's race.

Alben is also staking out campaign territory in education, proposing to bring federal funds to Washington to support students seeking advanced degrees in certain sectors, fully funding Head Start programs, and expanding scholarship programs.

``I am dancing on my desk over Alex Alben,'' said Paul Berendt, the state Democratic Party chairman. ``He's a five-star candidate and he's just the type of person we really need to win in this district.''

Berendt said that this year would be the year of the nonpolitician, and that despite Dunn's strengths, voters will be looking for a fresh perspective.

``It's not going to be easy to defeat her, but I believe people are tired of politicians who are putting their own careers in front of the district,'' Berendt said, referring to rumors of Dunn seeking lobbying jobs.

``We just believe that the Republican Congress is out of touch with people,'' Berendt said. ``We need to get people to represent us who are in touch with the real world.''

For others, Dunn's hold on her seat is not in doubt.

``Anybody looking to run against Jennifer Dunn must have a political death wish,'' said Brett Bader, a Republican strategist with Madison Communications.

``She's an outstanding fund-raiser,'' Bader said, ``Her popularity is a combination of popularity at home and popularity back East among the powers that be.''

``The mountain is too tall to climb,'' he said.

Alben is a graduate of Stanford University and its law school. A New York native, he's been in Washington 11 years, and has worked as general counsel and vice president for business development at Paul Allen's StarWave and most recently as an executive at RealNetworks. His wife, Ellen, is a lawyer and they have two children.