Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

Update
FF 72
FG 45
Lab 17
Grn 5
SF 3
PD 1
Ind 5

Is it, like, quite 100% assured that Ahern will still be PM on these results? I'm beginning to wonder actually.

Well, no it's not 100% assured, (and even bearing in mind my recent prediction record) it's certainly highly probable.

The Greens have been making intimations that it may be willing to deal with FF.

The future of the PDs is entirely unclear - it can't be ruled out that both PDs (Harney and Grealish) would effectively disband the party and join FF.

The surviving Independents are ecstatic - even Michael Lowry (Ind-Tipp N) (Former FG Minister) has said that he could do a deal with FF at the right price.

SF are still making overtones such that they could support FF.

The possibility of an alternative government, preventing Ahern becoming the first leader since deValera to be returned as Taoiseach for a 3rd term, seems really quite unlikely. FG maintain that SF are untouchable, given that they would need, I think, every other vote out there. (Though there would be historical precedent for this in 1948, IIRC).

[Јas]

First things first, hello there. Good to have another Irish voice around.

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange

Yeah, I heard this. He has a point, but I think that Kenny did lose the debate, it just didn't hurt him. Being at the debate at all was probably beneficial, it made him look like the contender - in what was quite a Presidential style election.

Ahern won and it added/spurred to their momentum in the final days with undecideds.

And the outcome? Watch for Rabbitte to exit stage left and Labour to look to go in with FF unless Greens can give them a better deal. If FF can tie down Labour(old men in a hurry now, all realising that their generation may not see ministerial mercedes again), then they cannot present themselves as part of a rainbow alternative next time round....

Well, we'll see. FF-Lab is possible, but I'm not sure I'd agree with the reasoning. An...em...interesting perspective though.

FF-Grn is probably my frontrunner right now though. (Quite possibly with a deal made with Healy-Rae and Flynn to give a bit of addeed stability.)

And watch for Bertie to slip away at a time of HIS choosing within 3 years. No Blair he! But then Cowen is no Gordon B

He did say last night though that he intended to serve a full term. He has said for a long time that he intends to leave politics at age 60. In 2012, when the current Dáil term could run to, Mr. Ahern would be 60.

[minionofmidas]

First things first, hello there. Good to have another Irish voice around.

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange

Yeah, I heard this. He has a point, but I think that Kenny did lose the debate, it just didn't hurt him. Being at the debate at all was probably beneficial, it made him look like the contender - in what was quite a Presidential style election.

In a sense, this election was just a restoration of normal service for FG.

[Јas]

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost;

Yeah, they really were routed. Though it's not quite impossible that they could keep going. They still have a natural constituency (small though it is) - particularly in the leafier areas south of the Liffey in Dublin.

Outside Dublin the PD vote is very much around personality politics - Parlon (Laois-Offaly) being a prime example.

Losing so many TDs is also a loss of a lot of that essential name recognition.

We shall see if Mary Harney can pull the PDs back together, but I doubt it. It's beginning to look as if this wipeout would have happened in 2002 but for the "FF Majority!" scare tactic.

All very true.

[Јas]

First things first, hello there. Good to have another Irish voice around.

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange

Yeah, I heard this. He has a point, but I think that Kenny did lose the debate, it just didn't hurt him. Being at the debate at all was probably beneficial, it made him look like the contender - in what was quite a Presidential style election.

In a sense, this election was just a restoration of normal service for FG.

So it seems. *sigh*

[minionofmidas]

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost;

Yeah, they really were routed. Though it's not quite impossible that they could keep going. They still have a natural constituency (small though it is) - particularly in the leafier areas south of the Liffey in Dublin.

And in Galway.
Although looking at the count there, the minor PD candidates' votes transferred very badly to the incumbent one, and I wouldn't quite rule out, at this point, that Mary Harney will be the sole survivor.

[minionofmidas]

I can't find the f#!?ing national turnout anywhere.

[Јas]

Update on results vs Jas' predictions. Now in Jas' original order.

Cavan-Monaghan
3 FF because of antidemocratic speakership rules, 1 SF, 1 FG
False. Seems like being from Cavan was not enough for Joe O'Reilly (FG). FF squeaked in instead.
This would have gone 2-2-1 if all five seats had been up for election, beyond a sliver of a doubt.

Not good to get my own constituency wrong.
It still amazes me that Monaghan continue to dominate the return of TDs here. Cavan despite having the larger population again returns only 1 TD.

Donegal NE
2 FF, 1 FG.
FG much stronger than Jas expected here, with SF missing out on a gain. Also had the wrong FFer losing out. FF infighting didn't leave this one all that far off a perfect storm single-FF-elected result. Of course this was ultra-hard to predict.
You really, really should let 6-seat counties be a single seat. 3-seaters distort results too much.

Strongly, strongly agree with you on 6-seaters. (Back in the good old days Mayo was a 9-seater )

As to Donegal NE, remarkable that Keaveney lost. This leaves the Innisowen area without a TD.

Donegal SW
2 FF, 1 FG.
Again, close call between FG and SF with a weird outside possibility of 1-1-1. Again, SF lose out where Jas predicted FG to do so.

Galway E
2 FG, 2 FF.
Perfect prediction, though McHugh got slaughtered.

Galway W
Still out.

Mayo
3 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Correct on party headlines, wrong on which FG candidate lost out (but correct on which two were in contention for that).

Believe it or not my choice of the 3rd FG seat taker was based on the result of a football match last weekend.

John O'Mahony is the manager of the Mayo county Gaelic Football side who were taken apart in the first round of the Connaught Championship. (This is the same John O'Mahony as who took the seat for FG in Mayo.) I figured he'd lose transfers over that...anyway...

Roscommon - Leitrim S
2 FG, 1 FF
See above

Sligo - Leitrim N
2 FF, 1 FG
See above

Cork E
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NC
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Glad to get this one right, not many saw the Labour seat as likely here.

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
See above

Cork SC
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Jas didn't see the Green seat loss here (and thus had to pick between an FG gain and a Labour gain, where both happened in the end). Can't blame him. Also wrong on which FFer lost out, though, but again, can't really blame him.

Dan Boyle is a huge loss to the Greens. He was the economics and finance man and really impressed me in this area.

Still very surprised by his loss.

Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
See above

Clare
2 FF, 2 FG
James Breen lost narrowly, to FG as Jas thought possible (but didn't predict). The bit about Green outside chances though... (shakes head)

Yeah, Mr Meaney really didn't live up to my expectations there.[/understatement]

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Correct call, though O'Brien never stood a chance.

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
See above

Limerick E
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call that Jas called "bold". Congrats.

Limerick W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call. (Though it was closer between the two FG men than between FF and FG).

Tipperary N
1 i, 1 FG, 1 FF
Correct call.

Tipperary S
See above. I think the recount's over, too.

Waterford
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Another good call.

Carlow - Kilkenny
3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green
Classic case of underestimating FF staying power. Correct on the Green gain from Labour.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
See above.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
See above

Laois - Offaly
Still out

Longford - Westmeath
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Perfect call on a new constituency. Well done, man.

Louth
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Woefully underestimating Seamas Kirk, who beat everybody. McGuiness did come close, but the loser would have been SF.

Yeah, Louth was a great example of vote management by FF.

Meath E
2 FF, 1 FG
Byrne (FF) got in instead of Hannigan (L). See what I said about 6-seaters. Ahern's government may well be saved by the Donegal and Meath constituency splits alone, which basically net FF one completely undeserved seat each at the expense of SF & Labour.

I know a guy who worked on the Hannigan campaign - shocked doesn't come close to describing his reaction. 

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
See above

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
See above

Wicklow
Still out

Dublin C
2 FF, 1 i, 1 Labour
Pretty bad call here; Jas seems not to have seen the 2nd FF hold at all. Mind you, Brady got in on less than a thousand first preferences. SF not even runners up (but fairly strong for that.)

Yes, another less than great call, this time in my constitutency of residence - so much for being able to read things on the ground.

McDonald, like most SF candidates, really came in far below expectations.

And now that plank Brady in the Dáil (argh...). I'm not certain, but he may have set the record for the lowest ever first preferences to still get elected.

Dublin MW
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
See above

Dublin N
See above

Dublin NC
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Should have stuck with his original prediction here.

Dublin NE
Still out

Dublin NW
2 FF, 1 Labour
Another case of overestimating SF and underestimating FF, but he said it was close (tho' he didn't call it a tossup.)

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
See above

Dublin SC
Still out

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
See above

Dublin SW
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
See above

Dublin W
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
See above

Dún Laoghaire
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Correct on party headlines, wrong on who got in for FG. Good enough, I suppose.

Well, overall it's fair to say there's room for improvement... I'll leave it at that.

[Јas]

I can't find the f#!?ing national turnout anywhere.

67.5%

[Јas]

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost;

Yeah, they really were routed. Though it's not quite impossible that they could keep going. They still have a natural constituency (small though it is) - particularly in the leafier areas south of the Liffey in Dublin.

And in Galway.
Although looking at the count there, the minor PD candidates' votes transferred very badly to the incumbent one, and I wouldn't quite rule out, at this point, that Mary Harney will be the sole survivor.

Actually, you might be right. I hadn't seen Welby's transfers.
I still think he should make it though.

If I remember correctly the geography of the next eliminations should suit him.

[minionofmidas]

I can't find the f#!?ing national turnout anywhere.

67.5%

Yeah, I'd found it as well by now.

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost;

Yeah, they really were routed. Though it's not quite impossible that they could keep going. They still have a natural constituency (small though it is) - particularly in the leafier areas south of the Liffey in Dublin.

And in Galway.
Although looking at the count there, the minor PD candidates' votes transferred very badly to the incumbent one, and I wouldn't quite rule out, at this point, that Mary Harney will be the sole survivor.

I still think he should make it though.

I agree he should, I was just saying he might not.

[minionofmidas]

Guesstimates on the constituencies still out...

Tipperary recount: no change
Dublin N: (1 FF already elected), 1 Green, 1 FG, another FF
Dublin NE: most likely - Lab, FF, FG. Also possible - Lab, 2 FF
Dublin SC: (2 FF already elected) most likely - Lab, FG, SF. Also possible 2 Lab, FG*
Galway: (1 FF already elected) most likely - Lab, another FF, FG, PD. Also possible Lab, 2 more FF, FG. Or even (but that's QUITE unlikely) Lab, another FF, 2 FG.
Laois - Offaly: (1 FF already elected) 2 FF, 2 FG, but no idea which candidates would win. Actually, this early in the count (what's holding them up?) all sorts of strange results cannot be *quite* ruled out yet, such as a PD hold.

*why did FF run only two candidates here? Looks like an error of judgement to me.

[Hash]

No Socialists?

[minionofmidas]

No Socialists?

No. No Socialist Worker either. There's Labour o/c, but apart from that...

[Hash]

Ah damn. Where did those that predicted 2 Socialists go?

[Јas]

Guesstimates on the constituencies still out...

Tipperary recount: no change

Yeah. Both Healy and Mansergh have just given interviews to RTÉ and feel the situation won't change.

Dublin N: (1 FF already elected), 1 Green, 1 FG, another FF

Recount underway here for the last count (#7). Full recount expected to be called shortly - so this one could run for some time yet.

Labour feel they should be ahead of Daly (Soc) according to their tallies. Not inconceivable that if the positions are reversed that Ryan could sneak in.

Dublin NE: most likely - Lab, FF, FG. Also possible - Lab, 2 FF

Recheck underway, some 48 votes have been unaccounted for somewhere.

Dublin SC: (2 FF already elected) most likely - Lab, FG, SF. Also possible 2 Lab, FG*

Probably the most difficult one left to call.
As to FF running two, you have to bear in mind that FF gaining seats in places like this was never seen to be on the table - places like this would have been seen as defensive holding operations.

Galway: (1 FF already elected) most likely - Lab, another FF, FG, PD. Also possible Lab, 2 more FF, FG. Or even (but that's QUITE unlikely) Lab, another FF, 2 FG.

Higgins has just been elected on the back of Green transfers.
Now v. likely it will be 2 FF and 1 each for Lab, FG and PD.

Laois - Offaly: (1 FF already elected) 2 FF, 2 FG, but no idea which candidates would win. Actually, this early in the count (what's holding them up?) all sorts of strange results cannot be *quite* ruled out yet, such as a PD hold.

If Cowen, Fleming, Flanagan and Enright don't get returned, it would be a big surprise. As for the last, it has to be Moloney or Foley...

[Harry Hayfield]

Using data from Election Ireland where we have 35 / 43 FPV's declared and 38 / 43 full counts completed, the tallies are:

Fianna Fail: 718,900 (41.89% +0.38%) winning 65 seats
Fine Gael: 479,077 (27.92% +5.43%) winning 45 seats
Labour: 170,265 (9.92% -0.86%) winning 17 seats
Progressive Democrats: 44,898 (2.62% -1.35%) winning 1 seat
Greens: 89,253 (5.20% +1.35%) winning 5 seats
Sinn Fein: 117,598 (6.85% +0.34%) winning 3 seats
Independents: 70,060 (4.08% -5.41%) winning 5 seats
Socialists: 13,230 (0.77% -0.03%) winning 0 seats
Others: 12,823 (0.75% +0.15%) winning 0 seats

[Hash]

No, according to the Irish Times, where I'm following the counts, the current tally for 150/166 TDs called is:

FF 72
FG 46
LAB 18
OTH 5
GP 5
SF 3
PD 1

Nice to see McDowell pulling off a April 21, 2002 L. Jopsin stunt.

[Јas]

Just to be clear the current declarations are as follows:
FF 73
FG 46
Lab 20
Grn 5
SF 3
PD 1
Ind 5

After 153/166 Declarations

And this is how it looks like it will end up:
FF 78
FG 51
Lab 20
Grn 6
SF 4
PD 2
Ind 5

[minionofmidas]

Not inconceivable that if the positions are reversed that Ryan could sneak in.

Which of course is why they bother with asking for a recount at all.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Recheck underway, some 48 votes have been unaccounted for somewhere.[/quote]So the Lab/FG/FF result on Aertel now is not yet final, or what?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Higgins has just been elected on the back of Green transfers.
Now v. likely it will be 2 FF and 1 each for Lab, FG and PD.[/quote]Yeah. My QUITE unlikely case is already impossible now.

[Јas]

Not inconceivable that if the positions are reversed that Ryan could sneak in.

Which of course is why they bother with asking for a recount at all.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Recheck underway, some 48 votes have been unaccounted for somewhere.

So the Lab/FG/FF result on Aertel now is not yet final, or what?
[/quote]
No, that is the result. The recheck was done and made no difference.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Higgins has just been elected on the back of Green transfers.
Now v. likely it will be 2 FF and 1 each for Lab, FG and PD.

Yeah. My QUITE unlikely case is already impossible now.
[/quote]
Yeah.


5 Constituencies are still counting.
Galway W
Elected: 3/5 [Cuív (FF); Higgins (Lab); McCormack (FG)]
Status: Now on Count 13 - Distributing McCormack's surplus.

Grealish (PD) and Fahey (FF) look set to take the last two seats soon.

Dublin SC
Elected: 3/5 (Ardagh and Mulcahy (FF); Upton (Lab)]
Status: Now on Count 10 - Distribution of Upton's surplus.

Catherine Byrne (FG) will probably get in on this count.
Last night, SF's Aengus Ó Snodaigh looked in serious danger. Now it looks like he will take the final seat. Leaving Eric Byrne (Lab) just missing out.

Laois-Offaly
Elected: 1/5 [Cowen (FF)]
Status: Now on Count 6 - Distribution of Jim O'Brien's (Lab) votes.

This count still has quite a while to go. Nonetheless the result seems fairly clear. Fleming (FF); Enright (FG) and Flanagan (FG) will take the next three seats. The only question is over which FFer takes the last seat. At the moment Moloney is ahead of Foley by 2 votes, but there are still thousands to redistribute.

Tipperary South
Elected: 2/3 [Hayes (FG); McGrath (FF)]
Status: Count complete, but recount underway.

After the final count, Independent and incumbent Seamas Healy was down by 59 votes to Senator Martin Mansergh (FF). This is unlikely to be overturned.

Dublin North
Elected: 1/4 [Kennedy (FF)]
Status: Count 7 completed, Brendan Ryan (Lab) has called a recount.

After Count 7, Ryan was to be eliminated having been 11 votes short of Clare Daly (Socialist). Latest news is that that recount is shortly to be called and declare that that deficit has been overturned and that after Count 7, Ryan is ahead by 2 votes. It seems likely that the Socialists will then call for another recount.

In the end though, it's still likely that it will be the Greens, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil which take the final 3 seats.

[Јas]

Latest

Party: Declared Seats (Predicted Seats)
FF 73 (78)
FG 47 (51)
Lab 20 (20)
Grn 5 (6)
SF 3 (4)
PD 1 (2)
Ind 5 (5)

Galway W and Dublin SC should finish shortly.
Laois-Offaly will take a few more hours - and even then a recount should well be called.
Tipperary South should be sorted out later this evening.
Dublin North might not finish in my lifetime if endless recounts continue...

[Јas]

Assuming it finishes as predicted above (and the only genuine possibility of a divergence would be for Labour to take one from FG in Dublin N).

What are the possible coalitions? Bear in mind that there are 166 seats.
The first order of business will be the election of the Ceann Comhairle (i.e. Speaker). It seems unlikely that the current holder, Rory O'Hanlon (FF-Cavan/Monaghan) will stay. FF may well seek to get an opposition CC in to aid their probable majority. (Though it seems that as yet Enda Kenny still holds out hopes of a grand anti-FF coalition.)

FF/Grn 84
FF/PD/ex-FF and other amenable Inds (Healy-Rae; Flynn; Gregory; McGrath) 84
FF/Grn/PD 86
FF/Lab 98

FG/Lab/Grn/PD/Non ex-FF Inds (Lowry; Gregory; McGrath) 82

[Јas]

Updates

Dublin N
Clare Daly (Socialist) has been denied her request for another recount by the returning officer and so has lost out to Brendan Ryan (Lab) on Count 7 by 2 votes. Apparantly there are 13 contentious ballots that were not stamped and had not been declared spoiled.

Count 8 is expected shortly.
Still expected that the final 3 seats will be FF; FG and Green. However some Labour people seem to be intimating that they could still outdo Reilly (FG).

Galway W
Count complete.
On Count 12, McCormack (FG) made the quota on Healy-Eames's (FG) transfers. Count 13 distributed McCormack's surplus and ended the count with the election of Grealish (PD) and Fahey (FF), neither of whom made the quota.

Dublin SC
Count Complete.
After Count 10 with no further votes after to redistribute ,Catherine Byrne (FG) was deemed elected 1 vote short of a quota. Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF) took the last seat by 69 votes from Eric Byrne (Lab).

Laois-Offaly
Still only Brian Cowen (FF) elected here.
However, progress is now good, count 8 is underway. Enright (FG); Flanagan (FG) and Fleming (FF) should all be elected shortly.
It's still very close for the last seat between Foley (FF) and Moloney (FF) with only 12 votes between them.

Tipperary South
Still no confirmation on the recount between Mansergh (FF) and Healy (Ind) and that 59 vote gap.

Roundup
Party: Declarations (Predicted)
FF 74 (78)
FG 48 (51)
Lab 20 (20)
Grn 5 (6)
SF 4 (4)
PD 2 (2)
Ind 5 (5)

So thats...
158/166 Declarations
40/43 Constituencies Complete

[Јas]

Dublin North
Count 8: Distribution of Clare Daly's (Socialist) votes.

Trevor Sargent (Green Leader) elected.

Ryan (Lab) didn't get the transfers he needed to stay competitive, he will almost certainly be eliminated after the current count which is the distribution of John O'Leary's (FF) votes.


It now seems clear that the result of the election will be:
[Party - Seats (Change on Dissolution)]
FF 78 (-3)
FG 51 (+20)
Lab 20 (-1)
Grn 6 (0)
SF 4 (-1)
PD 2 (-6)
Soc 0 (-1)
Ind 5 (-8)