Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

Mmm, I'd imagine FG would gain more than four seats

As would I. Just not sure where yet.

Southside Dublin is going to be much nicer to them this time than previously.

Which particular constituencies do you foresee as FG gains there?

Also, PD's do well when FG don't and vice versa, and I can't imagine the PD's keeping even three seats.

I'm now of the opinion that McDowell and Harney are safe (well Harney safe-ish), and that every other PD seat is in difficulty. That said, I get it hard to see them falling to 3 seats.

Socialists gaining a seat is interesting, Clare Daly?

Yep, I don't think any of their other candidates have any chance. Daly has been steadily building up her vote. The bin protests probably helped recently enough as well. Though that said, she's far from a certainty.

Welcome to the forum by the way.

[P.J. McDuff]

Thank you very much, Jas!

I can see FG getting at least one seat back in Dun Laoighaire, Lucinda Creighton in SE looks very competitive, Alan Shatter in Dublin South and Catherine Byrne in South Central should get seats too. Then depending on how Fine Gael are thought of coming up to election day, Brian Hayes and Leo Varadkar are good dark horse bets, Leo in particular got a percentage in the locals that was jaw droppingly big.

Elsewhere, I can see gains in Donegal NE, Cork SE, Galway E, Mayo and probably Laois/Offaly, at least at the minute anyway.

As for the PD's, I agree McDowell is probably safe, but the more I think about it the more I think Harney has a real battle on her hands, and thats even with an extra seat in her constituency. Call me crazy, but I'd say Fiona O'Malley is probably the safest PD in the house...

[Јas]

I can see FG getting at least one seat back in Dun Laoighaire,

Certainly possible for them to pick up 1 here, but like a few other constituencies, I think they're running too many candidates.

Lucinda Creighton in SE looks very competitive

No better than a 1 in 3 shot, IMO. Depends really on the order of elimination here where the final seat goes.

Alan Shatter in Dublin South and Catherine Byrne in South Central should get seats too.

Yep, Shatter has a good shot at it, I'm considering changing my Dublin South prediction (along with a few others). Unsure whether Byrne can hold Gay Mitchell's seat. At the moment, I suspect Labour have the edge in picking up a second seat there.

Then depending on how Fine Gael are thought of coming up to election day, Brian Hayes and Leo Varadkar are good dark horse bets, Leo in particular got a percentage in the locals that was jaw droppingly big.

Hayes should also give it a good run. I suspect Lenihan is vulnerable - but's it's a good many votes on 2002 that Hayes needs to catch up.
Varadkar also has a reasonable shot, but if he does get in it will probably be at the expense of rainbow colleague Burton - so no real net gain for the opposition.

[Јas]

Elsewhere, I can see gains in Donegal NE

Possible, but it's just as likely that Independent ex-FG Harte could get it as the official FG candidate. At this stage though, I'd reckon that SF is the most likely to make a gain here if anyone does.

Cork SE

Unless I've been misinformed, it's not a constituency - at least not this time around.

Galway E

4 FG candidates is at least 1 too many. They are in with a shout, but dividing their vote up this much increases McHugh's chances of holding and increases the outside shot the PD's have of a gain.

Mayo

Quite unlikely, IMO. 3 FG seats here would be quite something, and if they do manage it, it's probably fair to say my entire prediction set goes out the window.

and probably Laois/Offaly, at least at the minute anyway.

Yep, definite possibility. Depends on how Parlon's vote holds up - which doesn't really depend on his party all that much.

As for the PD's, I agree McDowell is probably safe, but the more I think about it the more I think Harney has a real battle on her hands, and thats even with an extra seat in her constituency. Call me crazy, but I'd say Fiona O'Malley is probably the safest PD in the house...

If Harney didn't have that extra seat to help out, I'd probably have plumped against her staying on. For the time being though, I think she will hang on, though I agree, she has a real battle to do so.

I'd also suggest you're in a small sub-set of persons who think that Fiona is the safest of the PD's (not that there's anything wrong with holding minority opinions - goodness knows I hold enough of them ...).

[P.J. McDuff]

I agree totally about FG's candidate strategy, this time last year it would have been considered optimistic, this year it looks a little silly. Regarding Cork SE, sorry my bad, I meant South Central, Coveney and Clune both being returned looks a possibility at the minute to me.

I would say Jimmy Harte's chances are quite slim, the constituency boundaries have been redrawn slightly and that won't help him at all, the reason I say Joe McHugh is because I figure Keaveney and MacLochlainn will cook their own geese in Inishowen, plus I reckon Blaney is pretty vulnerable. In fact, and here comes more craziness, I could see a situation where one FF'er is left in Donegal NE...

On Galway East, a source I know there suggests that the grassroots are seriously pissed about the four candidates thing, and furthermore that one of the candidates will be an epic blow-out. Also, apparently Paddy McHugh has been making some conrtoversial quotes about people drink driving to mass, I don't know how that will turn out.

And before I finish, I better explain my Fiona theory! Of all the PD's in the Dáil, she is probably the least offensive/most likeable personality wise, and considering she's in a five seater, I figured she would have a better chance than Herr McDowell or Mata Harney. Should I hire a straightjacket?!

[Јas]

I agree totally about FG's candidate strategy, this time last year it would have been considered optimistic, this year it looks a little silly. Regarding Cork SE, sorry my bad, I meant South Central, Coveney and Clune both being returned looks a possibility at the minute to me.

Yep, I have Cork SC down as an FG gain with Clune to take the 5th seat.

I would say Jimmy Harte's chances are quite slim, the constituency boundaries have been redrawn slightly and that won't help him at all, the reason I say Joe McHugh is because I figure Keaveney and MacLochlainn will cook their own geese in Inishowen, plus I reckon Blaney is pretty vulnerable. In fact, and here comes more craziness, I could see a situation where one FF'er is left in Donegal NE...

Hard to see FF with only 1 in Donegal NE. I agree that Blaney is vulnerable but I'd be reasonably sure that Keaveney is safe and that McDaid should also come through. The last seat is very hard to call though.

On Galway East, a source I know there suggests that the grassroots are seriously pissed about the four candidates thing, and furthermore that one of the candidates will be an epic blow-out. Also, apparently Paddy McHugh has been making some conrtoversial quotes about people drink driving to mass, I don't know how that will turn out.

Yep, McHugh's seat is very vulnerable, and I presume Burke is best placed of the FG posse to unseat him. Will have to wait and see a bit longer though on this one.

And before I finish, I better explain my Fiona theory! Of all the PD's in the Dáil, she is probably the least offensive/most likeable personality wise, and considering she's in a five seater, I figured she would have a better chance than Herr McDowell or Mata Harney. Should I hire a straightjacket?!

Of all the PD's, I must say that yeah Ms O'Malley is the most likeable, but then she doesn't face terribly stiff competition. If she holds on though, it's very hard to see FG gaining there.

[P.J. McDuff]

Donegal NE is gonna be a hell of a thing this year, McDaid is gonna either top the poll with record numbers or bomb out, I can't wait to see what insane ramblings he comes up with this time around.

Anyways, as regards Labour's proposed tax cuts, do you think that will have an electoral effect?

[Јas]

Anyways, as regards Labour's proposed tax cuts, do you think that will have an electoral effect?

Possibly, if they keep on message and compare to the government plan on simply cutting the top rate. (Willie O'Dea on Questions & Answers last Monday dug himself into a hole when he tried to describe the Labour plan as inequitable.)

The key issues in the campaign are likely to be health (PD responsibility), crime (PD responsibility) and the state of the economy.

The Labour proposal though certainly generated some interest and clearly worried the PD's given their immediate response of intention to increase the pension by €100 - which I'd venture has actually generated more a negative than positive reaction due to the timing of the announcement and the clear perception of trying to buy votes.

[Јas]

New Sunday Business Post/RedC poll published today.

Headline figures:
FF 38 (-4)
FG 22 (+1)
Lab 14 (+2)
GP 8 (+1)
SF 7 (Unchanged)
PD 4 (+1)
Ind 7 (-1)

Fairly small changes. Small Labour bump - possibly connected to the call for an income tax cut?

Whatever way you look at it though, FG & Lab will need to do much better than this to form a government. FF still very likely to lead the next executive.

[Јas]

I haven't been posting any sub-national polls, but a Lansdowne/Daily Star poll today for the Dublin area has some interest. The plusses and minuses are comparing with the 2002 General in Dublin.

FF 32 (-5)
FG 18 (+5)
Lab 14 (-1)
GP 13 (+5)
SF 7 (-2)
PD 6 (-1)

Should probably also be stated that Lansdowne have never had a fantastic track record with the big two. They traditionally have overestimated FF and underestimated FG.

But taking the figures at face value, it's a 6% loss on the government (FF/PD) side and a 9% gain for the new 'Rainbow' opposition (FG/Lab/GP). This would clearly result in some significant changes.

On 6% though, the PDs in Dublin should hold a great deal of their seats or at least their 1st preferences though with a lessened FF vote, transfers may prove a significant problem - particularly for Harney in Dub MW and O'Donnell in Dub Sth. Nonetheless, it certainyl doesn't reflect meltdown for the PDs and so will probably be welcomed there.

For FF, it's a much more chilling result. Many of their Dublin seats are held on a fairly small number of votes. Seats currently held in Dublin Central, Dub NE, Dub NW, Dub South Central and Dub SW would be almost certainly gone on these numbers.

[Јas]

Another monthly tracking poll by RedC to be published by the Sunday Business Post tomorrow.

Headline figures:
FF 36 (-2) [Not good, off the back of a 4 point fall in February, lowest point in these polls since September]
FG 23 (+1) [Higest point since November, but wouldn't be good enough in the General]
Lab 12 [Lose their gain from their high point in February]
SF 10 (+3) [Highest point since October last - possible bump off progress in the North]
GP 8 (Unchanged) [As high as they've ever been]
PD 3 (-1) [Tend to fluctuate between 3-4%]

The FF Ard-Fheis (Conference) is this weekend. In his speech, Ahern has promised to increase the State pension to €300 a week; to reduce the standard tax rate from 20% to 18% and cut the marginal rate from 41% to 40%; cut the PRSI rates (which [and I may be seriously mistaken] I think is similar to National Insurance in the UK); increase the number of gardaí by 2,000 to 16,000; as well as other promises on health care and justice.
All of these should find popular support - it's just a matter of whether the people will give them any credence. Will have to wait on the next series of polls to see if these promises can help stem the tide for FF.

[Јas]

2 new polls published yesterday:

Millard Brown IMS/Sunday Independent [Sample: 1082]
(Change on January MB-IMS poll)
FF 38 (-1)
FG 23 (+1)
Lab 12 (Unchanged)
SF 8 (+1)
GP 6 (+1)
PD 4 (-1)
Ind 8 (-2)

Red C/Sunday Business Post [Sample: 1261]
(Change on March RedC poll)
FF 35 (-1)
FG 27 (+4)
Lab 11 (-1)
GP 9 (+1)
SF 8 (-2)
PD 3 (Unchanged)
Ind 7 (-1)

[Verily]

Red C/Sunday Business Post [Sample: 1261]
(Change on March RedC poll)
FF 35 (-1)
FG 27 (+4)
Lab 11 (-1)
GP 9 (+1)
SF 8 (-2)
PD 3 (Unchanged)
Ind 7 (-1)

This poll would give a FG/Lab/Green government, no? Even alone, FG/Lab ties FF/PD for the first time in a while.

[Јas]

Red C/Sunday Business Post [Sample: 1261]
(Change on March RedC poll)
FF 35 (-1)
FG 27 (+4)
Lab 11 (-1)
GP 9 (+1)
SF 8 (-2)
PD 3 (Unchanged)
Ind 7 (-1)

This poll would give a FG/Lab/Green government, no?

Given the electoral system (PR-STV), answering this type of question is not easy. However, it should put them there or thereabouts.

These numbers would represent the worst FF performance since 1927, IIRC.


Also, it seems quite possible that the Taoiseach will announce the disolution of the Dáil on Thursday or Friday. This is given that it see ms likely that most legislation due for debate this week is far advanced and likely to pass before the week is out. Also, to disolove the Dáil he must ask the President to do so and she leaves on a trip to the US on Saturday for a week. (Though this can be circumvented, it's unlikely.)

[Verily]

May might be quite the month for elections, then. France, UK locals, Scotland, Wales, Manitoba, and now Ireland.

[Јas]

Another poll in quick succession, this time TNS mrbi/Irish Times: [Sample: 1000]
(Change on January TNS mrbi poll.)

FF 34 (-3)
FG 31 (+5)
Lab 10 (-1)
SF 10 (+1)
GP 6 (-2)
PD 3 (+2)
Ind 6 (+2)

Three polls in a short space of time but some very significant divergences. All though are agreed on some points: FF are down; FG are on the up; Labour relatively stable.

In light of the FG resurgence, I'll probably tinker a bit with my constituency predictions in the earlier pages.

Also, no sign of Dáid dissolution just yet. In itself the subject of disolution is now being asked to Ahern multiple times every day. Irish Times on Ahern's response to the question this morning

[Harry Hayfield]

Ireland 2007 Confirmed. May 24th 2007

Which means

May 3rd 2007: Super Thursday UK
May 6th 2007: France President Round 2
May 12th 2007: Manitoba 2007
May 24th 2007: Ireland 2007

Buses anyone?

[Јas]

Yes, game on!

Ahern went to Áras an Uachtarán this morning to request the disolution from the President just after 8a.m., about an hour before she was due to leave for a week long visit to the U.S.

Certainly the opposition parties weren't caught off guard, on waking up this morning I've seen that already Labour and Sinn Féin have been very busy postering, here in Dublin Central anyway.

If recent polls are anything, this should be a close election with everything to play for.

[Јas]

FTR, my own prediction currently stands as follows:

FF 70 (-9)
FG 37 (+5)
Lab 25 (+4)
GP 9 (+3)
SF 9 (+4)
PD 4 (-4)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 10 (-4)

It is, of course, subject to change. My constituency by constituency analysis (in the earlier pages of this thread) is the basis of this prediction and I tend to tinker with it every few days. I'll probably come up with a final prediction closer to the election.

It should be noted that my prediction is more friendly to FF and the Independents than many others would call, and less favourable to FG. Though for the other parties, I think I'm in line with general expectations.

[Јas]

New maps added with each constituency prediction (beginning with Cavan-Monaghan), á la below, to give a basis indication to where I'm taking about to those unfamiliar with Irish geography.


The maps are taken from the Fianna Fáil website.

[Verily]

FTR, my own prediction currently stands as follows:

FF 70 (-9)
FG 37 (+5)
Lab 25 (+4)
GP 9 (+3)
SF 9 (+4)
PD 4 (-4)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 10 (-4)

FF/PD would need every Independent to support them in order to govern. Is that realistic?

[Јas]

FTR, my own prediction currently stands as follows:

FF 70 (-9)
FG 37 (+5)
Lab 25 (+4)
GP 9 (+3)
SF 9 (+4)
PD 4 (-4)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 10 (-4)

FF/PD would need every Independent to support them in order to govern. Is that realistic?

No. At best half could be bought off, but certainly not all of them.

[Verily]

So what would happen? An unstable FF/PD minority (or just FF minority), an unstable FG/Lab (or maybe FG/Lab/Green) minority, a FF/Lab suicide pact, or a FF/FG grand coalition?

[Јas]

If those numbers did result, FF/Lab would be the most likely outcome. No other combination would have the stability, though with one or two more seats, a FF/Green or FF/SF government could be possible with the support of 4/5 independents.

Any which way, a further election in a few months couldn't be ruled out.

[Јas]

With the first week of official campaigning coming to an end, it's very clear that it has been the worst such effort by FF on record. The party, and Bertie Ahern, in particular have had a bitterly lamentable few days.

After miving for a dissolution of the Dáil on Sunday, it became very clear that this was not the original plan of the Taoiseach, as FF weren't ready and were clearly caught unawares. By the days end, most other parties had been out postering and holding press conferences - not FF though. On it's own, not a huge deal, but a stark contrast to their race out of the blocks 5 years ago.
 
On Monday, the Irish Times opened up the Bertiegate scandal again, with new revelations that businessman Michael Wall gave £30,000stg in cash to the Taoiseach's then partner Celia Larkin in December 1994. The money was placed by Ms Larkin in an account in her name and was used to fund work on a house in Drumcondra owned at the time by Mr Wall and being rented (and subsequently bought) by Bertie Ahern. The issue (as well as issues arising from Bertiegate I) were to be put to Ahern as part of the ongoing work of the Mahon Tribunal.

The Tribunal which was due to reconvene on Monday, postponed it's work until after the general election - some believe that this is the reason that Bertie sought disollution on Sunday morning, in the apparantly rushed manner and without major figures in FF being informed.

Ahern went for days without answering questions on the payments clearly causing him considerable angst. This was quite visible when he refused to answer a question on this issue and stood in front of a posse of journalists for the now famous 6 seconds of silence before a press handler called for the next question.

On Wednesday evening, a surprise u-turn by FF on the issue of stamp duty, which was a brazen attempt to get Bertiegate off the front pages. Having well leaked it the evening before, it suceeded in this goal, and drew considerable questions in itself.

Yesterday though saw what will probably be the moment of the election. At the FF manisfesto lauch, Ahern opened up questions to the floor and was obviously subject to some difficult ones. It was then that an extraordinary 11 minutes of questioning occured by RTÉ broadcaster/journalist, Irish Times columnist and Village magazine editor, Vincent Browne began. What follows below is an extract from it (printed in today's Irish Times).