Ireland Election 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What with Ahern getting caught up in scandals, I might as well put this up now.

Any polls?

[afleitch]

http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/IOPA/
Historical data here, but that's all I can find

Some people are saying the government could collapse in the next few days :/

[afleitch]

Ah here we go- something recent

Irish Examiner Poll (19/9)

FF 39% +1
FG 24% +1
Lab 10% -2
SF 9% -1
Grn 6% -
Ind 6% -
PD 6% +1

[Bono]

As long as PD are good.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A new poll:

FF 33%
FG 25%
Lab 14%
Inds 9%
SF 8%
Grn 7%
PD 4%

[Harry Hayfield]

Is there such a thing as an electoral calulator (along the lines of UK Elect) for the Irish Dail?

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

[Colin]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

Well Fine Gael and Fianna Fail usually institute the measures of their coalition partners in recent years. However Fine Gael is usually considered to be a Christian Democratic party and Fianna Fail to be a conservative party. Fianna Failhas become more economically conservative since they've been coalitioning with the PD and Fine Gael usually becomes more leftist when it coalitions with Labour.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

Well Fine Gael and Fianna Fail usually institute the measures of their coalition partners in recent years. However Fine Gael is usually considered to be a Christian Democratic party and Fianna Fail to be a conservative party. Fianna Failhas become more economically conservative since they've been coalitioning with the PD and Fine Gael usually becomes more leftist when it coalitions with Labour.

I did a votesmart test. It came out Green, Labour, Progressive Democrat, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein

I'd be Labour or FG since I'm fairly comfortable with social democracy and Christian Democracy - so I dare say a coalition between the two would suit me

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prime Minister alleged to be involved in genuine financial corruption. Prime Minister's party gains 8pts in the polls.

Any reason for that?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It looks like the Coalition will return at the stage, or at least FF will - never underestimate FF's Get out the vote and media machine.

*sigh*

Would seriously think of emigrating if SF got into goverment, which isn't totally impossible after the election.

Hopefully the PD's will be wiped out - I hope.

[Colin]

It looks like the Coalition will return at the stage, or at least FF will - never underestimate FF's Get out the vote and media machine.

*sigh*

Would seriously think of emigrating if SF got into goverment, which isn't totally impossible after the election.

Hopefully the PD's will be wiped out - I hope.

What do you have against the PD? Do you hate freedom?

Are you a Fine Gael or Labour supporter?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Yay!

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True. But Bertie has alot of momentum at the moment. Plus it seems like people are really waking up to the weaknesses of the opposition. Enda Kenny needs a message better than We're not as  incompetent or as corrupt as Fianna Fail.

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I'd agree with that - I was just being Fatalistic.

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No I don't think so, Just enough so that McDowell loses his leadership (Unlikely, I know) would be good. Though if they do that badly they might aswell do the long awaited merger with FF.
I don't really hate the PDs as much as some people, though they are still way too friendly to big business (more so than the other parties) and are run by an Authoritian fool - plus they have been in power way too long at this stage.

As for me, I plan to vote for either FG\Lab as my first preference. Simply because they are not the other guys.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Such is the joy of Irish politics. Remember all that hype over FG's demise after 2002, especially after Pat Rabbite took over labour? And how we're finally going to get a functioning opposition? Yeaaaaaaahhhhh......

Too bad the only thing I can remember Pat doing recently is his constant pimping of Labour to FG.

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Well as a Dublin Southian I doubt that O'Donnell is safe - likely to hold on to her seat? Yep. But not purely safe.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Around here O'Donnell losing her seat was seen as a near-certainty until McDowell's "No single party goverment" campaign. Kitt + Brennan are safe. As is Olivia Mitchell. Then it's between Shatter\O'Donnell\Ryan\Labour Candidate for the remaining two seats.

In saying that Dublin South is natural PD terriority (unlike Wexford) so it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest to me or anyone if she survived. It will of course all probably depend on tactical voting and the last few weeks campaigning.

[minionofmidas]

True. But Bertie has alot of momentum at the moment. Plus it seems like people are really waking up to the weaknesses of the opposition. Enda Kenny needs a message better than We're not as  incompetent or as corrupt as Fianna Fail.

For as long as I can remember that's all FG's message has ever been...

That's all the message you need to ensure election defeat!

[minionofmidas]

Does this include guesstimates on who will win where?

[minionofmidas]

Good stuff.

[Kevinstat]

Cork South-Central (5)      
Martin, Mícheál (FF)* - Safer than a safe in a safe place   
Coveney, Simon (FG)* - Safe FG   
Boyle, Dan (GP)* - Lean   
Dennehy, John (FF) - Safe FF   
Clune, Deirdre (FG) - Lean FG

If Dennehy (FF) or Clune (FG) don't get seats, I'd be fairly sure that it would be a party compatriot who gets in in their place.

Did you perhaps mean to say "if Dennehy or Coveney don't get seats..."?  You listed Coveney's seat as "Safe FG" (rather than simply "Safe" and listed Clune's seat as "Lean FG" (indicating you wern't as certain that FG would win a second seat as you were that FF would win at least two seats and that FG would win at least one).  I know you aren't guaranteeing that what you are predicting (even the seats you consider safe for a candidate or party) will be the result, but I thought I'd clear up what might have been a minor typo.

[Kevinstat]

No prob

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Alas, Poor Yorlik, It is true, It is true - Politics truly is the hashish of the Irish people (Oliver St John Gogarty); and King Bertie's reign will continue unchallenged as per usual.

Though the Bride at this stage is certain, and as it's Bride who really wears the trousers in a FF-led goverment this is important - Queen Trevor, Queen Michael, Queen Patrick or even Queen Jerry.. such a hard decision, though the Greens clearly look the best prepared - the most beautiful and desirable with a good dowry in tow. It's not impossible.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Though the Bride at this stage is certain, and as it's Bride who really wears the trousers in a FF-led goverment this is important - Queen Trevor, Queen Michael, Queen Patrick or even Queen Jerry.. such a hard decision, though the Greens clearly look the best prepared - the most beautiful and desirable with a good dowry in tow. It's not impossible.

Queen Trevor - At this point I think that a FF/Green government is no better than 20/1. Neither party would have many members happy about the thought of this.

Queen Michael - Second most likely in my book is a return of FF/PD for a 3rd term. It's hard to see how both parties don't lose seats on 2002. If they are back, I'd say that it will be after a deal is cut with the FF-leaning Independents - though they themselves are also under some pressure this time.

Queen Pat - Most likely for me, or at least a FF/Lab government is - Pat mightn't have the stomach for it. If so, Mr. Howlin looks like the forerunner to take the reigns.

Queen Gerry - Well, Gerry, of course isn't contesting a seat, so Caoighín Ó Caoláin would be the man to walk up the aisle. I suspect though that a formal FF/SF government, with SF ministries is not probable right now. Though a SF supported FF minority government would not be out of the question - probably the 3rd most likely scenario in my book.

Queen Trevor - This Romance is ideal for Neither; The Green guide to seduction shows it needs it's subjects (Especially it's watermelons) to think of her as somewhat "radical" and "daring", not words to describe King Bertie (Despite a strange socialist conversion a few years ago). Yet the maths and fate might force these two to come together on the day of the great ball. This imagines that Queen Michael loses even more of her desirable numbers (not too unlikely), Queen Pat can not be swayed and Queen Gerry.. well, that say it all doesn't it? I say this is quite likely actually.

Queen Michael - At this stage I see two options for the PDs, Either a total end of the romance (such as losing all but 2 seats or similiar) or a similiar stunning return to desirability as in 2002, maybe this time "The Devil you know will look after FF" being what wooes the electorate. I hope not though, Michael McDowell is not a woman to be trusted.

Queen Patrick - Similiar to Queen Trevor but only more so, The Mathematics will make sense, so will Bertie's constant on-off flirting to the "Red Queen" be sufficient for him to have a sudden change of mind at the ball? I don't think so, the memories of the short lived romance between Queen Dick and King Albert back in 92' and the spectactular rejection afterwards is still too painful for the labour party subjects. I still say this won't be the match to be.

Queen Gerry (or Queen Caoighin if you will) - Can SF seduce more of the electorate to think it's violent and unpredictable days are over is now happy in traditional good ol' domestic confinement, like the rest of the brides-to-be (while still wanting to look like the rebellious child of times past)? If so and presuming the memories of an earlier romance keeps the labourites away, this unlikely marriage is not too unlikely. But if in Marriage how likely is it to last? Showing itself as a "normal party" might turn off those subjects charmed by it's "rebellious" image? And how will King Bertie's supposed brothers - such as King Tony of Britannia (or would be Gordon at that stage?) and the rest of the European princelings react to seeing a woman for such reputation and history in such a high and powerful position. Too controversial a marriage to be possible, If this is the only possible option still allowed by fate, then I would expect another twirl at electoral romance come 2008.

But sadly from my point of view, all of these couples are more likely than King Enda. Or King Bertie with Queen Enda.. now that would be some marriage, couldn't imagine that lasting long and be blissful to all those involved.

(And the fact that I've probably just confused everyone on the forum other than possibly Jas. )

[Hash]

A poll I saw shows that the Fine Gael is falling back...

[Silent Hunter]

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...