Ireland Election 2007
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #25 on: February 03, 2007, 11:27:55 AM »

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #26 on: February 03, 2007, 02:39:08 PM »

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...

[Pedant]No they weren't. Cumann na nGaedhael and Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein were on opposite sides in the civil war. Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein later split into Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail over the issue of entering parliament (FF were in favour) while CnG merged with the "Centre party" (mainly made out of ex-home rule politicians) and a group of semi-fascists to form "Fine Gael".[/pedant]

And Since De Valera departed the scene there has been always no difference between the two parties in terms of policy. Only in terms of who votes for whom does it really show anything.

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.

The Difference between sh**t and sh**te is what I've often been told. I don't know if that was what Hunter was talking about.
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« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2007, 03:26:26 PM »

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...
^^^^

That's possibly as good an answer as you're likely to get.

Fianna Fál were founded in 1926 by the followers of Eamon deValera, as an offshoot of Anti-Treaty Sinn Féin, when a vote proposed by deValera failed at a SF Ard Fheis (Conference). (The vote proposed that Anti-Treaty SF should take their seats in the Dáil if the necessity of the Oath of Allegiance to the British King was removed.)

Shortly thereafter FF were formed. The following were the 6 declared aims of the party (and as I understand it, they have never been changed and remain as avowed aims):

1. To secure the unity and independence of Ireland as a republic.
2. To restore the Irish language as the spoken language of the people and to develop a distinctive national life in accordance with Irish traditions and ideals.
3. To make the resources and wealth of Ireland subservient to the needs and welfare of the people of Ireland.
4. To make Ireland, as far as possible, economically self-contained and self-sufficing.
5. To establish as many families as practicable on the land.
6. By suitable distribution of power to promote the ruralisation of essential industries as opposed to their concentration in cities.

Make of those what you will, clearly strongly nationalist/republican, somewhat social democratic, pro-small farmer, etc. In my view, neither aim 5 nor 6 have ever really been pushed for. Aim 4, self-sufficiency, was an aim of deValera, but no leader since has made any move in that direction.

As for the others, arguments can be made that they are or have been serious aims of the party, but the support any individual aim holds in the party today would vary greatly.

I would suggest that the party has a social-democratic streak, though not a strong one. The party is probably slightly left-of-centre economically, on the whole, but as with all things in FF, the direction of the party will be dictated by those in the key positions. There's little doubt, for example, that the recent long-term Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy was of the centre right. However, the current Minister, Brian Cowen, is probably left-of-centre. Many supporters of out-and-out leftist parties will decry FF as a right-wing party, but one must bear in mind that over the years a number of significant left-wing economic ideas were brought about by FF.

The party has always been socially conservative and always has been mindful of the Catholic Church though not slavish in following it. In recent times, with the great waning in the Church's influence, I would suggest that FF has moved in certain respects is moving toward the centre. Though, as with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil is a big-tent party, and fairly wide range of views on all issues exist.

In Ireland, there is a third comparitor for parties after social and economic matters, specifically their position on the North and how 'republican/nationalist' are they? On this scale, FF are unquestionably significantly more 'green' than Fine Gael. They have always been more sympathetic to Sinn Féin than FG, who have traditionally been the most anti-SF party in the South.

Fine Gael  have no declared aims á la FF above (that I know of) - so my analysis will be considerably shorter.

Their position on the North has already been stated. Economically, the party are probably best categorised as Christian Democrats. They are also socially conservative - in this respect it's difficult to find significant difference from Fianna Fáil. However, under the leadership of Garret FitzGerald during the 80's, the party was distinctly more liberal socially than either party has ever been. Though later leaderships have brought the party back to their natural home, IMO.

On the economic scale, I would suggest that FG are to the right of FF and are centrist to right-of-centre. It's more difficult to gauge this though, as FG have never been in governement without the Labour party and so are under their decidedly left-ist influence.

Both parties have changed with their leaderships and any analysis of the difference between the parties at any particular point is probably best measured in terms of the apparent positions of the party leaders on any given issue.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #28 on: February 03, 2007, 03:55:17 PM »

Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past. There were Fine Gaelers would wished Ireland to enter the Second world war, for example. Also Fine Gael were originally "the Commonwealth party" (even though it was an FG-led goverment which made a republic in 1949) and supported Free trade with the UK, as opposed to De Valera's Autarky policy.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #29 on: February 03, 2007, 03:57:21 PM »

What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later? Huh
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #30 on: February 03, 2007, 04:01:56 PM »

What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later? Huh

Iirc the Presidency was originally a replacement for the position of governor general - the stand in for the British Monarch in Ireland and a position De Valera abolished under the 1937 constitution (it had been one of the original demands of the Anglo-Irish treaty).
Unsurprisingly Arch-Nationalist and Irish language enthuaist (putting it mildly) Douglas Hyde was chosen by both main parties to become the next president without even an election or any real opposition.
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« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2007, 07:04:16 PM »

What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later? Huh

On becoming the Irish Free State in 1922, one of the conditions of 'the Treaty'/Anglo-Irish Agreement 1922, was that a Governor-General be established, as a symbolic representative for the British monarch - we were afterall still in the Commonwealth (though the government here would get to choose the GG). The main purpose of the position was to sign bills into law.

In 1932, deValera and FF came to power and becan deconstructing the Treaty. In 1935,during the British abdication crisis, the Dál met to alter the relationship of the King with the irish state, while no monarch actually held the throne. Acts were passed which reduced the powers of the King to signing Letters of Credence accrediting Irish ambassadors to other states and signing international treaties on Ireland's behalf. They also effectively removed the role of the Governor-General. In 1937, a new Constitution was drafted and passed. It, among many other things, created the office of President and renamed the state Ireland.  The document made Ireland a republic in all but name - Article 6, for example, declares Ireland to be a sovereign, independent, democratic state. No mention is contained therein of Britain or the British monarch. The office of President was established and took over the job of signing bills into law and moved into the residence that was held by the Governor General.

Ireland remained in the Commonwealth and the British monarch's roles under the 1935 Act remained.

According to deValera, the reason why it didn't explicitly declare us to be a republic was so as to not further the divide with the North.

In 1949, the Republic of Ireland Act was passed declaring the term 'Republic of Ireland' as a description of the state. Following the passage of the Act, Ireland left the Commonwealth and the British monarch lost any role in Irish affairs. The reason that the government decided to declare a republic was that the then Taoiseach John Costello, was apparantly embarrassed when on a state visit to Canada, Costello got in a tizzy over being asked about our position in the Commonwealth and relationship with the King - and unilaterally decided to declare that Ireland was to become a republic, to the surprise of the British government, the Irish people and his own cabinet.
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« Reply #32 on: February 03, 2007, 07:37:12 PM »

Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past.
Quite true.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.
Yep, agree with this also.

According to Michael Gallagher's research, nowadays the single biggest factor affecting how one votes here is how one's parents vote. And at least anecdotally, that appears to be quite true to me.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #33 on: February 03, 2007, 07:49:20 PM »

Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past.
Quite true.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.
Yep, agree with this also.

According to Michael Gallagher's research, nowadays the single biggest factor affecting how one votes here is how one's parents vote. And at least anecdotally, that appears to be quite true to me.

I would not be surprised by that one bit - which proves how 'liberal' our democratic culture really is - especially given that our politics was never based on class or something else which could explain that fact away. Internet link to that research (or at least a portion or something similiar)?
 
I'm mainly curious to see the geography - my prediction (not too difficult) is that the number of voters who vote differently from their parents is dramatically increased inside Dublin as opposed to the rest of the country.
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« Reply #34 on: February 03, 2007, 08:02:23 PM »

Internet link to that research (or at least a portion or something similiar)?

Don't know of any online source. I recall it from 1st year lectures in Politics - a text for which included Politics in the Republic of Ireland by Coakley and Gallagher. Actually, now that I mention it I'm not certain that it was necessarily Gallagher's research that came to the conclusion or Brendan Walsh's.
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« Reply #35 on: February 05, 2007, 08:21:11 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2007, 05:20:08 PM by Kevinstat »

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.

I think it's that the difference between the two parties is the difference between sh*t and sh*te, perhaps a reference to Fine Gael's or its predecessor party's original pro-concilliation policy vis-a-vis Great Britain, where people seem to call sh*t "sh*te".
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« Reply #36 on: February 05, 2007, 01:57:20 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2007, 06:49:12 PM by Jas »

Dublin: Part III

Dublin South East (4)

Prediction:
Gormley, John (GP)* - Safe
Andrews, Chris (FF) - Lean FF
Creighton, Lucinda (FG) - Tossup
McDowell, Michael (PD)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
There should be a FF seat here, but with the retirement of the incumbent Ryan, I'm really only guessing which of the 2 FF are running should take it. (This is one of only a handful of constituencies where no FF TD is a possibility, if an outside one.) Gormley should be safe and will probably jump 2 spots on last time to top the poll.

For the final 2 seats, there are 3 contenders. Minister for Justice and PD leader, Michael McDowell; Former Labour leader and former Minister for Finance Ruarí Quinn; and FG newcomer, Lucinda Creighton (who has one of those permatans taht remind me of Kilroy-Silk *shudder*).

Very hard to say. While Quinn should do best on getting transfers, I worry that he may be to far behind on first preferences to catch up to teo people I'd rather not see in the Dáil.

Current: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 FG
Change: FG +1; Lab -1

Dublin South West (4)

Prediction:
Crowe, Seán (SF)* - Safe
Rabbitte, Pat (Lab)* - Lean
O'Connor, Charlie (FF)* - Safe FF
Hayes, Brian (FG) - Tossup

EDIT (9 May)
Local hospital issues should eat into the FF vote. Brian Hayes (FG) would be the favourite to pick up on FF slipage - but he has a tough task ahead of him - even though the FF incumbent pairing are probably two of the least competent around. predicting Conor Lenihan (FF) to lose out - probably the biggest name that I'm predicting to do so.

Current: 2 FF; 1 SF; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 SF; 1 Lab
Change: FF -1; FG +1

Dublin West (3)

Prediction:
Lenihan, Brian (FF)* - Safe
Higgins, Joe (Soc)* - Lean
Burton, Joan (Lab)* - Tossup

Lenihan is safe and I'd be surprised if Higgins lost out.  For the final seat then it's between Joan Burton (Lab) and Leo Varadkar (FG). I think Burton has the advantage in a constituency with a strong working class leftist vote. She should outdo FG on transfers from the Greens and SF - and Higgins, if there is any.

Current: 1 FF; 1 Soc; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Soc; 1 Lab
Change: None

Dún Laoighaire (5)

Prediction:
Hanafin, Mary (FF)* - Safe
Gilmore, Eamon (Lab)* - Safe
Cuffe, Ciaran (GP)* - Lean
Bailey, John (FG) - Tossup
Andrews, Barry (FF)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
The two incumbent seats in danger here are Andrews (FF) and O'Malley (PD). Also in contention for the seats are a couple of FG candidates and Oisin Quinn (Lab). Predicting Bailey (FG) to unseat O'Malley (PD).

Current: 2 FF; 1 Lab; 1 GP; 1 PD
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP
Change: FG +1; PD -1

Dublin Prediction Overall
Current: 21 FF; 3 FG; 9 Lab; 4 PD; 5 GP; 2 SF; 1 Soc; 2 Ind
Prediction: 16 FF; 7 FG; 8 Lab; 3 PD; 5 GP; 5 SF; 2 Soc; 1 Ind
Change: FF -5; FG +4; Lab -1; PD -1; SF +3; Soc +1; Ind -1
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #37 on: February 05, 2007, 02:48:13 PM »

Jas, You probably know more about trends and polls, etc than I do right now, but I severly doubt that Fine Gael will do even worse in Dublin than they did in 2002, you have them level with "Red Joe's" party for christ sake!

As for Dublin South, Right now I'm not too sure for your assessement. Yes, Brennan, Kitt and Mitchell are almost certainly safe but Ryan and O'Donnell are very much on risky terriority. But you're right in regards to Labour shooting themselves in the foot in regards to running two candidates (Strangely so are Sinn Fein, unusual given that this is probably the least-SF friendly constituency in the country.) - still right now from the recent poll the most-awaited PD collapse seems to be coming. So I'd predict that Culihan (Labour; probably the better placed of the two candidates) will unseat O'Donnell. Ryan will remain. Though Alan Shatter is always a possibility, but he will probably fall short again, unfortunate given that I quite like him actually.

Jas, You're registered in.. Cavan\Monaghan, am I correct?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #38 on: February 05, 2007, 03:01:27 PM »

So, Jas Using your overall results we get:

FF: 72
FG: 36
Lab: 24
GP: 7
SF: 7
PD: 5
Soc: 2
Ind: 9

Gridlock ahoy!

But honestly, I think you have Labour and the PD's too high and FG + Greens too low. The rest look somewhat accurate.

EDIT: I forgot to mention but your Entry for Mayo isn't entirely clear whether there would be 2FF's seats or not. I counted 1FF and 2IND, just to let you know.
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« Reply #39 on: February 06, 2007, 05:57:51 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2007, 07:09:12 PM by Jas »

Ulster Prediction Overall
Current: 7 FF; 2 FG; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Prediciton: 6 FF; 2 FG; 3 SF;
Change: FF -1; SF +2; Ind -1

Connaught Prediction Overall
Current: 8 FF; 6 FG; 1 Lab; 1 PD; 4 Ind
Prediction: 8 FF; 9 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP; 1 Ind
Change: FG +3; PD -1; GP +1; Ind -3

Cork Prediction Overall
Current: 12 FF;  5 FG; 2 Lab; 1 GP   
Prediction: 9 FF; 7 FG; 2 Lab; 1 GP
Change: FF -3; FG +2

Munster Predicition Overall (Excluding Cork)
Current: 12 FF; 6 FG; 3 Lab; 1 PD; 1 SF; 5 Ind
Prediction: 12 FF; 9 FG; 3 Lab; 1 SF; 3 Ind
Change: FG +3; PD -1; Ind -2

Leinster Prediction Overall (excluding Dublin)
Current: 19 FF; 10 FG; 6 Lab; 2 PD; 1 SF; 2 Ind
Prediction: 17 FF; 13 FG; 7 Lab; 2 GP; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Change: FF -2; FG +3; Lab +1; PD -2; GP +2; Ind -1

Dublin Prediction Overall
Current: 21 FF; 3 FG; 9 Lab; 4 PD; 5 GP; 2 SF; 1 Soc; 2 Ind
Prediction: 16 FF; 7 FG; 8 Lab; 3 PD; 5 GP; 5 SF; 2 Soc; 1 Ind
Change: FF -5; FG +4; Lab -1; PD -1; SF +3; Soc +1; Ind -1


Ireland Prediction Overall
Current: FF 79; FG 32; Lab 21; PD 8; GP 6; SF 5; Soc 1; Ind 14
Prediction: FF 68; FG 47; Lab 21; PD 3; GP 9; SF 10; Soc 2; Ind 6
Change: FF -11; FG +15; Lab 0; PD -5; GP +3; SF +5; Soc +1; Ind -8
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« Reply #40 on: February 06, 2007, 09:41:19 AM »

Jas, You probably know more about trends and polls, etc than I do right now, but I severly doubt that Fine Gael will do even worse in Dublin than they did in 2002, you have them level with "Red Joe's" party for christ sake!
First off, let me put my hands up, this exercise is little more advanced that drawing names out of a hat. I understand and agree that on the whole FG really should do better than I predict in Dublin. The problem is this is a constiuency by constituency analysis and I calls them like I sees them. I honestly don't know where the FG gains are going to come in Dublin. Please feel free to throw your thoughts in on this - I'm quite open to make alterations.

As for Dublin South, Right now I'm not too sure for your assessement. Yes, Brennan, Kitt and Mitchell are almost certainly safe but Ryan and O'Donnell are very much on risky terriority. But you're right in regards to Labour shooting themselves in the foot in regards to running two candidates (Strangely so are Sinn Fein, unusual given that this is probably the least-SF friendly constituency in the country.) - still right now from the recent poll the most-awaited PD collapse seems to be coming. So I'd predict that Culihan (Labour; probably the better placed of the two candidates) will unseat O'Donnell. Ryan will remain. Though Alan Shatter is always a possibility, but he will probably fall short again, unfortunate given that I quite like him actually.

I agree that neither Ryan nor O'Donnell are safe, but I do think they are better than 50% to return - right now. Maybe this will change closer to the election. I would have went with a Labour gain, but I don't think they can do it with 2 candidates in the field.

Jas, You're registered in.. Cavan\Monaghan, am I correct?
Born and bred in Monaghan, it is indeed where I'm registered to vote.
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Jas
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« Reply #41 on: February 06, 2007, 09:45:22 AM »

So, Jas Using your overall results we get:

FF: 72
FG: 36
Lab: 24
GP: 7
SF: 7
PD: 5
Soc: 2
Ind: 9
I'm still fine-tuning the figures, as I've messed up some of the maths somewhere.

So it would seem.

But honestly, I think you have Labour and the PD's too high and FG + Greens too low. The rest look somewhat accurate.
If I was just making a guess based on polling without having looked at each constituency, I'd agree. I thought starting out that there would be more PD losses and more Green gains. Finding Green gains in particular isn't easy.

EDIT: I forgot to mention but your Entry for Mayo isn't entirely clear whether there would be 2FF's seats or not. I counted 1FF and 2IND, just to let you know.
Predicting 2 FF; 2 FG; 1 Ind.
Beverley Flynn to lose out to an official FF candidate.
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« Reply #42 on: February 06, 2007, 01:06:18 PM »

After completing my check on the figures, the following is the tally of my predictions:
FF 74
FG 36
Lab 25
SF 8
Green 7
PD 5
Soc 2
Ind 9

On these figures the government parties (FF & PD) would be returned with 79 TDs, 4 short of exactly half the Dáil. In the 1997-2002 term the FF/PD government had 81 seats but governed thanks to a deal made with a number of Independents. The only such Independent TD I predict to still be around is Healy-Rae (Kerry South). He (or presumably his son Michael, who may run in his stead) would be prepared to deal again, as would James Breen (Clare) and Paddy McHugh (Galway East). Beyond these 3, the Independents become increasingly unapproachable for FF, or at the very least much more expensive.

This wouldn't be a good result for the major opposition parties either. FG & Labour would together have 61, nowhere near enough. Add in their first prefered partners, the Greens, and they still only have 68 seats. In short, this scenario leaves no chance of Enda Kenny becoming Taoiseach. (A position which I believe is accepted by many within FG, citing as evidence Gay Mitchell's decision to stay in Europe and John Deasy's pre-emptive comments on the leadership a few weeks ago.)

The only realistic options on these numbers are FF/Green; FF/SF; and FF/Labour, with both options 1 and 2 here probably coming with deals to the aforementioned Independents in order to shore up the numbers. I've already commented on my thoughts on each of these, which remain unchanged.

Finally, on the predictions, take them with a couple of buckets of salt. I'm not very good at this sort of thing, but they are an honest attempt, and I will likely make a few alterations before election day. I would also say that predicting new Independents is fiercely difficult and may well end up as one of the areas of most glaring incompetence in my analysis.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #43 on: February 06, 2007, 01:07:37 PM »

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #44 on: February 06, 2007, 01:12:00 PM »

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

Many people in the press and media have called for it, but the chances of it ever happening are literally zilch. Too many personal enemity for one thing, another is that would be extremely damaging to the two parties if the goverment loses popularity, and especially damaging to Fine Gael.
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« Reply #45 on: February 06, 2007, 01:14:15 PM »

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

Not in the short to medium term anyway.

Maybe if the Greens and SF continue to grow and eat into either/both FF and FG's votes it could be countenanced, particularly if the view was firmly taken that SF were untouchable as a government party.

It would also need Labour to firmly stand as against a coalition with FF, but as seen with Dick Spring in 1992 ( and I believe we are currently seeing with Pat Rabbitte now) even the most anti-FF block within Labour will succomb to entering such a coalition under the right conditions.
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« Reply #46 on: February 06, 2007, 01:17:50 PM »

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

Too many personal enemity for one thing

Though similar if not greater amounts of animosity exist for many on the Labour benches - and as far as I can see - this can be overcome. Though many in FG would be apopleptic if they had to play second fiddle to FF.

, another is that would be extremely damaging to the two parties if the goverment loses popularity, and especially damaging to Fine Gael.

True, but I doubt this would be foremost in the minds of either party.

In my view, both wish to be the leading party in government with a small partner, who they feel they can dominate - even if history shows that such domination has never really been possible, at least for any sustained period of time.

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« Reply #47 on: February 10, 2007, 03:59:18 PM »

After completing my check on the figures, the following is the tally of my predictions:
FF 74
FG 36
Lab 25
SF 8
Green 7
PD 5
Soc 2
Ind 9


Mmm, I'd imagine FG would gain more than four seats, Southside Dublin is going to be much nicer to them this time than previously. Also, PD's do well when FG don't and vice versa, and I can't imagine the PD's keeping even three seats. Socialists gaining a seat is interesting, Clare Daly?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #48 on: February 10, 2007, 04:45:55 PM »

Yay! Another Irish Poster. Smiley

And I agree with him too. Wink
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« Reply #49 on: February 11, 2007, 09:34:31 AM »

Excellent! Smiley
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