Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...

^^^^

That's possibly as good an answer as you're likely to get.

Fianna Fál were founded in 1926 by the followers of Eamon deValera, as an offshoot of Anti-Treaty Sinn Féin, when a vote proposed by deValera failed at a SF Ard Fheis (Conference). (The vote proposed that Anti-Treaty SF should take their seats in the Dáil if the necessity of the Oath of Allegiance to the British King was removed.)

Shortly thereafter FF were formed. The following were the 6 declared aims of the party (and as I understand it, they have never been changed and remain as avowed aims):

1. To secure the unity and independence of Ireland as a republic.
2. To restore the Irish language as the spoken language of the people and to develop a distinctive national life in accordance with Irish traditions and ideals.
3. To make the resources and wealth of Ireland subservient to the needs and welfare of the people of Ireland.
4. To make Ireland, as far as possible, economically self-contained and self-sufficing.
5. To establish as many families as practicable on the land.
6. By suitable distribution of power to promote the ruralisation of essential industries as opposed to their concentration in cities.

Make of those what you will, clearly strongly nationalist/republican, somewhat social democratic, pro-small farmer, etc. In my view, neither aim 5 nor 6 have ever really been pushed for. Aim 4, self-sufficiency, was an aim of deValera, but no leader since has made any move in that direction.

As for the others, arguments can be made that they are or have been serious aims of the party, but the support any individual aim holds in the party today would vary greatly.

I would suggest that the party has a social-democratic streak, though not a strong one. The party is probably slightly left-of-centre economically, on the whole, but as with all things in FF, the direction of the party will be dictated by those in the key positions. There's little doubt, for example, that the recent long-term Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy was of the centre right. However, the current Minister, Brian Cowen, is probably left-of-centre. Many supporters of out-and-out leftist parties will decry FF as a right-wing party, but one must bear in mind that over the years a number of significant left-wing economic ideas were brought about by FF.

The party has always been socially conservative and always has been mindful of the Catholic Church though not slavish in following it. In recent times, with the great waning in the Church's influence, I would suggest that FF has moved in certain respects is moving toward the centre. Though, as with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil is a big-tent party, and fairly wide range of views on all issues exist.

In Ireland, there is a third comparitor for parties after social and economic matters, specifically their position on the North and how 'republican/nationalist' are they? On this scale, FF are unquestionably significantly more 'green' than Fine Gael. They have always been more sympathetic to Sinn Féin than FG, who have traditionally been the most anti-SF party in the South.

Fine Gael  have no declared aims á la FF above (that I know of) - so my analysis will be considerably shorter.

Their position on the North has already been stated. Economically, the party are probably best categorised as Christian Democrats. They are also socially conservative - in this respect it's difficult to find significant difference from Fianna Fáil. However, under the leadership of Garret FitzGerald during the 80's, the party was distinctly more liberal socially than either party has ever been. Though later leaderships have brought the party back to their natural home, IMO.

On the economic scale, I would suggest that FG are to the right of FF and are centrist to right-of-centre. It's more difficult to gauge this though, as FG have never been in governement without the Labour party and so are under their decidedly left-ist influence.

Both parties have changed with their leaderships and any analysis of the difference between the parties at any particular point is probably best measured in terms of the apparent positions of the party leaders on any given issue.

[Јas]

What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later?

On becoming the Irish Free State in 1922, one of the conditions of 'the Treaty'/Anglo-Irish Agreement 1922, was that a Governor-General be established, as a symbolic representative for the British monarch - we were afterall still in the Commonwealth (though the government here would get to choose the GG). The main purpose of the position was to sign bills into law.

In 1932, deValera and FF came to power and becan deconstructing the Treaty. In 1935,during the British abdication crisis, the Dál met to alter the relationship of the King with the irish state, while no monarch actually held the throne. Acts were passed which reduced the powers of the King to signing Letters of Credence accrediting Irish ambassadors to other states and signing international treaties on Ireland's behalf. They also effectively removed the role of the Governor-General. In 1937, a new Constitution was drafted and passed. It, among many other things, created the office of President and renamed the state Ireland.  The document made Ireland a republic in all but name - Article 6, for example, declares Ireland to be a sovereign, independent, democratic state. No mention is contained therein of Britain or the British monarch. The office of President was established and took over the job of signing bills into law and moved into the residence that was held by the Governor General.

Ireland remained in the Commonwealth and the British monarch's roles under the 1935 Act remained.

According to deValera, the reason why it didn't explicitly declare us to be a republic was so as to not further the divide with the North.

In 1949, the Republic of Ireland Act was passed declaring the term 'Republic of Ireland' as a description of the state. Following the passage of the Act, Ireland left the Commonwealth and the British monarch lost any role in Irish affairs. The reason that the government decided to declare a republic was that the then Taoiseach John Costello, was apparantly embarrassed when on a state visit to Canada, Costello got in a tizzy over being asked about our position in the Commonwealth and relationship with the King - and unilaterally decided to declare that Ireland was to become a republic, to the surprise of the British government, the Irish people and his own cabinet.

[Јas]

Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past.

Quite true.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.

Yep, agree with this also.

According to Michael Gallagher's research, nowadays the single biggest factor affecting how one votes here is how one's parents vote. And at least anecdotally, that appears to be quite true to me.

[Јas]

Internet link to that research (or at least a portion or something similiar)?

Don't know of any online source. I recall it from 1st year lectures in Politics - a text for which included Politics in the Republic of Ireland by Coakley and Gallagher. Actually, now that I mention it I'm not certain that it was necessarily Gallagher's research that came to the conclusion or Brendan Walsh's.

[Јas]

Dublin: Part III

Dublin South East (4)

Prediction:
Gormley, John (GP)* - Safe
Andrews, Chris (FF) - Lean FF
Creighton, Lucinda (FG) - Tossup
McDowell, Michael (PD)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
There should be a FF seat here, but with the retirement of the incumbent Ryan, I'm really only guessing which of the 2 FF are running should take it. (This is one of only a handful of constituencies where no FF TD is a possibility, if an outside one.) Gormley should be safe and will probably jump 2 spots on last time to top the poll.

For the final 2 seats, there are 3 contenders. Minister for Justice and PD leader, Michael McDowell; Former Labour leader and former Minister for Finance Ruarí Quinn; and FG newcomer, Lucinda Creighton (who has one of those permatans taht remind me of Kilroy-Silk *shudder*).

Very hard to say. While Quinn should do best on getting transfers, I worry that he may be to far behind on first preferences to catch up to teo people I'd rather not see in the Dáil.

Current: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 FG
Change: FG +1; Lab -1
Dublin South West (4)

Prediction:
Crowe, Seán (SF)* - Safe
Rabbitte, Pat (Lab)* - Lean
O'Connor, Charlie (FF)* - Safe FF
Hayes, Brian (FG) - Tossup

EDIT (9 May)
Local hospital issues should eat into the FF vote. Brian Hayes (FG) would be the favourite to pick up on FF slipage - but he has a tough task ahead of him - even though the FF incumbent pairing are probably two of the least competent around. predicting Conor Lenihan (FF) to lose out - probably the biggest name that I'm predicting to do so.

Current: 2 FF; 1 SF; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 SF; 1 Lab
Change: FF -1; FG +1
Dublin West (3)

Prediction:
Lenihan, Brian (FF)* - Safe
Higgins, Joe (Soc)* - Lean
Burton, Joan (Lab)* - Tossup

Lenihan is safe and I'd be surprised if Higgins lost out.  For the final seat then it's between Joan Burton (Lab) and Leo Varadkar (FG). I think Burton has the advantage in a constituency with a strong working class leftist vote. She should outdo FG on transfers from the Greens and SF - and Higgins, if there is any.

Current: 1 FF; 1 Soc; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Soc; 1 Lab
Change: None
Dún Laoighaire (5)

Prediction:
Hanafin, Mary (FF)* - Safe
Gilmore, Eamon (Lab)* - Safe
Cuffe, Ciaran (GP)* - Lean
Bailey, John (FG) - Tossup
Andrews, Barry (FF)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
The two incumbent seats in danger here are Andrews (FF) and O'Malley (PD). Also in contention for the seats are a couple of FG candidates and Oisin Quinn (Lab). Predicting Bailey (FG) to unseat O'Malley (PD).

Current: 2 FF; 1 Lab; 1 GP; 1 PD
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP
Change: FG +1; PD -1

Dublin Prediction Overall
Current: 21 FF; 3 FG; 9 Lab; 4 PD; 5 GP; 2 SF; 1 Soc; 2 Ind
Prediction: 16 FF; 7 FG; 8 Lab; 3 PD; 5 GP; 5 SF; 2 Soc; 1 Ind
Change: FF -5; FG +4; Lab -1; PD -1; SF +3; Soc +1; Ind -1

[Јas]

Ulster Prediction Overall
Current: 7 FF; 2 FG; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Prediciton: 6 FF; 2 FG; 3 SF;
Change: FF -1; SF +2; Ind -1

Connaught Prediction Overall
Current: 8 FF; 6 FG; 1 Lab; 1 PD; 4 Ind
Prediction: 8 FF; 9 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP; 1 Ind
Change: FG +3; PD -1; GP +1; Ind -3

Cork Prediction Overall
Current: 12 FF;  5 FG; 2 Lab; 1 GP   
Prediction: 9 FF; 7 FG; 2 Lab; 1 GP
Change: FF -3; FG +2

Munster Predicition Overall (Excluding Cork)
Current: 12 FF; 6 FG; 3 Lab; 1 PD; 1 SF; 5 Ind
Prediction: 12 FF; 9 FG; 3 Lab; 1 SF; 3 Ind
Change: FG +3; PD -1; Ind -2

Leinster Prediction Overall (excluding Dublin)
Current: 19 FF; 10 FG; 6 Lab; 2 PD; 1 SF; 2 Ind
Prediction: 17 FF; 13 FG; 7 Lab; 2 GP; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Change: FF -2; FG +3; Lab +1; PD -2; GP +2; Ind -1

Dublin Prediction Overall
Current: 21 FF; 3 FG; 9 Lab; 4 PD; 5 GP; 2 SF; 1 Soc; 2 Ind
Prediction: 16 FF; 7 FG; 8 Lab; 3 PD; 5 GP; 5 SF; 2 Soc; 1 Ind
Change: FF -5; FG +4; Lab -1; PD -1; SF +3; Soc +1; Ind -1

Ireland Prediction Overall
Current: FF 79; FG 32; Lab 21; PD 8; GP 6; SF 5; Soc 1; Ind 14
Prediction: FF 68; FG 47; Lab 21; PD 3; GP 9; SF 10; Soc 2; Ind 6
Change: FF -11; FG +15; Lab 0; PD -5; GP +3; SF +5; Soc +1; Ind -8

[Јas]

Jas, You probably know more about trends and polls, etc than I do right now, but I severly doubt that Fine Gael will do even worse in Dublin than they did in 2002, you have them level with "Red Joe's" party for christ sake!

First off, let me put my hands up, this exercise is little more advanced that drawing names out of a hat. I understand and agree that on the whole FG really should do better than I predict in Dublin. The problem is this is a constiuency by constituency analysis and I calls them like I sees them. I honestly don't know where the FG gains are going to come in Dublin. Please feel free to throw your thoughts in on this - I'm quite open to make alterations.

As for Dublin South, Right now I'm not too sure for your assessement. Yes, Brennan, Kitt and Mitchell are almost certainly safe but Ryan and O'Donnell are very much on risky terriority. But you're right in regards to Labour shooting themselves in the foot in regards to running two candidates (Strangely so are Sinn Fein, unusual given that this is probably the least-SF friendly constituency in the country.) - still right now from the recent poll the most-awaited PD collapse seems to be coming. So I'd predict that Culihan (Labour; probably the better placed of the two candidates) will unseat O'Donnell. Ryan will remain. Though Alan Shatter is always a possibility, but he will probably fall short again, unfortunate given that I quite like him actually.

I agree that neither Ryan nor O'Donnell are safe, but I do think they are better than 50% to return - right now. Maybe this will change closer to the election. I would have went with a Labour gain, but I don't think they can do it with 2 candidates in the field.

Jas, You're registered in.. Cavan\Monaghan, am I correct?

Born and bred in Monaghan, it is indeed where I'm registered to vote.

[Јas]

So, Jas Using your overall results we get:

FF: 72
FG: 36
Lab: 24
GP: 7
SF: 7
PD: 5
Soc: 2
Ind: 9

I'm still fine-tuning the figures, as I've messed up some of the maths somewhere.

Gridlock ahoy!

So it would seem.

But honestly, I think you have Labour and the PD's too high and FG + Greens too low. The rest look somewhat accurate.

If I was just making a guess based on polling without having looked at each constituency, I'd agree. I thought starting out that there would be more PD losses and more Green gains. Finding Green gains in particular isn't easy.

EDIT: I forgot to mention but your Entry for Mayo isn't entirely clear whether there would be 2FF's seats or not. I counted 1FF and 2IND, just to let you know.

Predicting 2 FF; 2 FG; 1 Ind.
Beverley Flynn to lose out to an official FF candidate.

[Јas]

After completing my check on the figures, the following is the tally of my predictions:
FF 74
FG 36
Lab 25
SF 8
Green 7
PD 5
Soc 2
Ind 9

On these figures the government parties (FF & PD) would be returned with 79 TDs, 4 short of exactly half the Dáil. In the 1997-2002 term the FF/PD government had 81 seats but governed thanks to a deal made with a number of Independents. The only such Independent TD I predict to still be around is Healy-Rae (Kerry South). He (or presumably his son Michael, who may run in his stead) would be prepared to deal again, as would James Breen (Clare) and Paddy McHugh (Galway East). Beyond these 3, the Independents become increasingly unapproachable for FF, or at the very least much more expensive.

This wouldn't be a good result for the major opposition parties either. FG & Labour would together have 61, nowhere near enough. Add in their first prefered partners, the Greens, and they still only have 68 seats. In short, this scenario leaves no chance of Enda Kenny becoming Taoiseach. (A position which I believe is accepted by many within FG, citing as evidence Gay Mitchell's decision to stay in Europe and John Deasy's pre-emptive comments on the leadership a few weeks ago.)

The only realistic options on these numbers are FF/Green; FF/SF; and FF/Labour, with both options 1 and 2 here probably coming with deals to the aforementioned Independents in order to shore up the numbers. I've already commented on my thoughts on each of these, which remain unchanged.

Finally, on the predictions, take them with a couple of buckets of salt. I'm not very good at this sort of thing, but they are an honest attempt, and I will likely make a few alterations before election day. I would also say that predicting new Independents is fiercely difficult and may well end up as one of the areas of most glaring incompetence in my analysis.

[Јas]

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

Not in the short to medium term anyway.

Maybe if the Greens and SF continue to grow and eat into either/both FF and FG's votes it could be countenanced, particularly if the view was firmly taken that SF were untouchable as a government party.

It would also need Labour to firmly stand as against a coalition with FF, but as seen with Dick Spring in 1992 ( and I believe we are currently seeing with Pat Rabbitte now) even the most anti-FF block within Labour will succomb to entering such a coalition under the right conditions.

[Јas]

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

Too many personal enemity for one thing

Though similar if not greater amounts of animosity exist for many on the Labour benches - and as far as I can see - this can be overcome. Though many in FG would be apopleptic if they had to play second fiddle to FF.

, another is that would be extremely damaging to the two parties if the goverment loses popularity, and especially damaging to Fine Gael.

True, but I doubt this would be foremost in the minds of either party.

In my view, both wish to be the leading party in government with a small partner, who they feel they can dominate - even if history shows that such domination has never really been possible, at least for any sustained period of time.

[Јas]

Mmm, I'd imagine FG would gain more than four seats

As would I. Just not sure where yet.

Southside Dublin is going to be much nicer to them this time than previously.

Which particular constituencies do you foresee as FG gains there?

Also, PD's do well when FG don't and vice versa, and I can't imagine the PD's keeping even three seats.

I'm now of the opinion that McDowell and Harney are safe (well Harney safe-ish), and that every other PD seat is in difficulty. That said, I get it hard to see them falling to 3 seats.

Socialists gaining a seat is interesting, Clare Daly?

Yep, I don't think any of their other candidates have any chance. Daly has been steadily building up her vote. The bin protests probably helped recently enough as well. Though that said, she's far from a certainty.

Welcome to the forum by the way.

[Јas]

I can see FG getting at least one seat back in Dun Laoighaire,

Certainly possible for them to pick up 1 here, but like a few other constituencies, I think they're running too many candidates.

Lucinda Creighton in SE looks very competitive

No better than a 1 in 3 shot, IMO. Depends really on the order of elimination here where the final seat goes.

Alan Shatter in Dublin South and Catherine Byrne in South Central should get seats too.

Yep, Shatter has a good shot at it, I'm considering changing my Dublin South prediction (along with a few others). Unsure whether Byrne can hold Gay Mitchell's seat. At the moment, I suspect Labour have the edge in picking up a second seat there.

Then depending on how Fine Gael are thought of coming up to election day, Brian Hayes and Leo Varadkar are good dark horse bets, Leo in particular got a percentage in the locals that was jaw droppingly big.

Hayes should also give it a good run. I suspect Lenihan is vulnerable - but's it's a good many votes on 2002 that Hayes needs to catch up.
Varadkar also has a reasonable shot, but if he does get in it will probably be at the expense of rainbow colleague Burton - so no real net gain for the opposition.

[Јas]

Elsewhere, I can see gains in Donegal NE

Possible, but it's just as likely that Independent ex-FG Harte could get it as the official FG candidate. At this stage though, I'd reckon that SF is the most likely to make a gain here if anyone does.

Cork SE

Unless I've been misinformed, it's not a constituency - at least not this time around.

Galway E

4 FG candidates is at least 1 too many. They are in with a shout, but dividing their vote up this much increases McHugh's chances of holding and increases the outside shot the PD's have of a gain.

Mayo

Quite unlikely, IMO. 3 FG seats here would be quite something, and if they do manage it, it's probably fair to say my entire prediction set goes out the window.

and probably Laois/Offaly, at least at the minute anyway.

Yep, definite possibility. Depends on how Parlon's vote holds up - which doesn't really depend on his party all that much.

As for the PD's, I agree McDowell is probably safe, but the more I think about it the more I think Harney has a real battle on her hands, and thats even with an extra seat in her constituency. Call me crazy, but I'd say Fiona O'Malley is probably the safest PD in the house...

If Harney didn't have that extra seat to help out, I'd probably have plumped against her staying on. For the time being though, I think she will hang on, though I agree, she has a real battle to do so.

I'd also suggest you're in a small sub-set of persons who think that Fiona is the safest of the PD's (not that there's anything wrong with holding minority opinions - goodness knows I hold enough of them ...).

[Јas]

I agree totally about FG's candidate strategy, this time last year it would have been considered optimistic, this year it looks a little silly. Regarding Cork SE, sorry my bad, I meant South Central, Coveney and Clune both being returned looks a possibility at the minute to me.

Yep, I have Cork SC down as an FG gain with Clune to take the 5th seat.

I would say Jimmy Harte's chances are quite slim, the constituency boundaries have been redrawn slightly and that won't help him at all, the reason I say Joe McHugh is because I figure Keaveney and MacLochlainn will cook their own geese in Inishowen, plus I reckon Blaney is pretty vulnerable. In fact, and here comes more craziness, I could see a situation where one FF'er is left in Donegal NE...

Hard to see FF with only 1 in Donegal NE. I agree that Blaney is vulnerable but I'd be reasonably sure that Keaveney is safe and that McDaid should also come through. The last seat is very hard to call though.

On Galway East, a source I know there suggests that the grassroots are seriously pissed about the four candidates thing, and furthermore that one of the candidates will be an epic blow-out. Also, apparently Paddy McHugh has been making some conrtoversial quotes about people drink driving to mass, I don't know how that will turn out.

Yep, McHugh's seat is very vulnerable, and I presume Burke is best placed of the FG posse to unseat him. Will have to wait and see a bit longer though on this one.

And before I finish, I better explain my Fiona theory! Of all the PD's in the Dáil, she is probably the least offensive/most likeable personality wise, and considering she's in a five seater, I figured she would have a better chance than Herr McDowell or Mata Harney. Should I hire a straightjacket?!

Of all the PD's, I must say that yeah Ms O'Malley is the most likeable, but then she doesn't face terribly stiff competition. If she holds on though, it's very hard to see FG gaining there.

[Јas]

Anyways, as regards Labour's proposed tax cuts, do you think that will have an electoral effect?

Possibly, if they keep on message and compare to the government plan on simply cutting the top rate. (Willie O'Dea on Questions & Answers last Monday dug himself into a hole when he tried to describe the Labour plan as inequitable.)

The key issues in the campaign are likely to be health (PD responsibility), crime (PD responsibility) and the state of the economy.

The Labour proposal though certainly generated some interest and clearly worried the PD's given their immediate response of intention to increase the pension by €100 - which I'd venture has actually generated more a negative than positive reaction due to the timing of the announcement and the clear perception of trying to buy votes.

[Јas]

New Sunday Business Post/RedC poll published today.

Headline figures:
FF 38 (-4)
FG 22 (+1)
Lab 14 (+2)
GP 8 (+1)
SF 7 (Unchanged)
PD 4 (+1)
Ind 7 (-1)

Fairly small changes. Small Labour bump - possibly connected to the call for an income tax cut?

Whatever way you look at it though, FG & Lab will need to do much better than this to form a government. FF still very likely to lead the next executive.

[Јas]

I haven't been posting any sub-national polls, but a Lansdowne/Daily Star poll today for the Dublin area has some interest. The plusses and minuses are comparing with the 2002 General in Dublin.

FF 32 (-5)
FG 18 (+5)
Lab 14 (-1)
GP 13 (+5)
SF 7 (-2)
PD 6 (-1)

Should probably also be stated that Lansdowne have never had a fantastic track record with the big two. They traditionally have overestimated FF and underestimated FG.

But taking the figures at face value, it's a 6% loss on the government (FF/PD) side and a 9% gain for the new 'Rainbow' opposition (FG/Lab/GP). This would clearly result in some significant changes.

On 6% though, the PDs in Dublin should hold a great deal of their seats or at least their 1st preferences though with a lessened FF vote, transfers may prove a significant problem - particularly for Harney in Dub MW and O'Donnell in Dub Sth. Nonetheless, it certainyl doesn't reflect meltdown for the PDs and so will probably be welcomed there.

For FF, it's a much more chilling result. Many of their Dublin seats are held on a fairly small number of votes. Seats currently held in Dublin Central, Dub NE, Dub NW, Dub South Central and Dub SW would be almost certainly gone on these numbers.

[Јas]

Another monthly tracking poll by RedC to be published by the Sunday Business Post tomorrow.

Headline figures:
FF 36 (-2) [Not good, off the back of a 4 point fall in February, lowest point in these polls since September]
FG 23 (+1) [Higest point since November, but wouldn't be good enough in the General]
Lab 12 [Lose their gain from their high point in February]
SF 10 (+3) [Highest point since October last - possible bump off progress in the North]
GP 8 (Unchanged) [As high as they've ever been]
PD 3 (-1) [Tend to fluctuate between 3-4%]

The FF Ard-Fheis (Conference) is this weekend. In his speech, Ahern has promised to increase the State pension to €300 a week; to reduce the standard tax rate from 20% to 18% and cut the marginal rate from 41% to 40%; cut the PRSI rates (which [and I may be seriously mistaken] I think is similar to National Insurance in the UK); increase the number of gardaí by 2,000 to 16,000; as well as other promises on health care and justice.
All of these should find popular support - it's just a matter of whether the people will give them any credence. Will have to wait on the next series of polls to see if these promises can help stem the tide for FF.

[Јas]

2 new polls published yesterday:

Millard Brown IMS/Sunday Independent [Sample: 1082]
(Change on January MB-IMS poll)
FF 38 (-1)
FG 23 (+1)
Lab 12 (Unchanged)
SF 8 (+1)
GP 6 (+1)
PD 4 (-1)
Ind 8 (-2)

Red C/Sunday Business Post [Sample: 1261]
(Change on March RedC poll)
FF 35 (-1)
FG 27 (+4)
Lab 11 (-1)
GP 9 (+1)
SF 8 (-2)
PD 3 (Unchanged)
Ind 7 (-1)

[Јas]

Red C/Sunday Business Post [Sample: 1261]
(Change on March RedC poll)
FF 35 (-1)
FG 27 (+4)
Lab 11 (-1)
GP 9 (+1)
SF 8 (-2)
PD 3 (Unchanged)
Ind 7 (-1)

This poll would give a FG/Lab/Green government, no?

Given the electoral system (PR-STV), answering this type of question is not easy. However, it should put them there or thereabouts.

These numbers would represent the worst FF performance since 1927, IIRC.


Also, it seems quite possible that the Taoiseach will announce the disolution of the Dáil on Thursday or Friday. This is given that it see ms likely that most legislation due for debate this week is far advanced and likely to pass before the week is out. Also, to disolove the Dáil he must ask the President to do so and she leaves on a trip to the US on Saturday for a week. (Though this can be circumvented, it's unlikely.)

[Јas]

Another poll in quick succession, this time TNS mrbi/Irish Times: [Sample: 1000]
(Change on January TNS mrbi poll.)

FF 34 (-3)
FG 31 (+5)
Lab 10 (-1)
SF 10 (+1)
GP 6 (-2)
PD 3 (+2)
Ind 6 (+2)

Three polls in a short space of time but some very significant divergences. All though are agreed on some points: FF are down; FG are on the up; Labour relatively stable.

In light of the FG resurgence, I'll probably tinker a bit with my constituency predictions in the earlier pages.

Also, no sign of Dáid dissolution just yet. In itself the subject of disolution is now being asked to Ahern multiple times every day. Irish Times on Ahern's response to the question this morning

[Јas]

Yes, game on!

Ahern went to Áras an Uachtarán this morning to request the disolution from the President just after 8a.m., about an hour before she was due to leave for a week long visit to the U.S.

Certainly the opposition parties weren't caught off guard, on waking up this morning I've seen that already Labour and Sinn Féin have been very busy postering, here in Dublin Central anyway.

If recent polls are anything, this should be a close election with everything to play for.

[Јas]

FTR, my own prediction currently stands as follows:

FF 70 (-9)
FG 37 (+5)
Lab 25 (+4)
GP 9 (+3)
SF 9 (+4)
PD 4 (-4)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 10 (-4)

It is, of course, subject to change. My constituency by constituency analysis (in the earlier pages of this thread) is the basis of this prediction and I tend to tinker with it every few days. I'll probably come up with a final prediction closer to the election.

It should be noted that my prediction is more friendly to FF and the Independents than many others would call, and less favourable to FG. Though for the other parties, I think I'm in line with general expectations.

[Јas]

New maps added with each constituency prediction (beginning with Cavan-Monaghan), á la below, to give a basis indication to where I'm taking about to those unfamiliar with Irish geography.


The maps are taken from the Fianna Fáil website.