Ireland Election 2007

[P.J. McDuff]

After completing my check on the figures, the following is the tally of my predictions:
FF 74
FG 36
Lab 25
SF 8
Green 7
PD 5
Soc 2
Ind 9

Mmm, I'd imagine FG would gain more than four seats, Southside Dublin is going to be much nicer to them this time than previously. Also, PD's do well when FG don't and vice versa, and I can't imagine the PD's keeping even three seats. Socialists gaining a seat is interesting, Clare Daly?

[P.J. McDuff]

Excellent!

[P.J. McDuff]

Thank you very much, Jas!

I can see FG getting at least one seat back in Dun Laoighaire, Lucinda Creighton in SE looks very competitive, Alan Shatter in Dublin South and Catherine Byrne in South Central should get seats too. Then depending on how Fine Gael are thought of coming up to election day, Brian Hayes and Leo Varadkar are good dark horse bets, Leo in particular got a percentage in the locals that was jaw droppingly big.

Elsewhere, I can see gains in Donegal NE, Cork SE, Galway E, Mayo and probably Laois/Offaly, at least at the minute anyway.

As for the PD's, I agree McDowell is probably safe, but the more I think about it the more I think Harney has a real battle on her hands, and thats even with an extra seat in her constituency. Call me crazy, but I'd say Fiona O'Malley is probably the safest PD in the house...

[P.J. McDuff]

I agree totally about FG's candidate strategy, this time last year it would have been considered optimistic, this year it looks a little silly. Regarding Cork SE, sorry my bad, I meant South Central, Coveney and Clune both being returned looks a possibility at the minute to me.

I would say Jimmy Harte's chances are quite slim, the constituency boundaries have been redrawn slightly and that won't help him at all, the reason I say Joe McHugh is because I figure Keaveney and MacLochlainn will cook their own geese in Inishowen, plus I reckon Blaney is pretty vulnerable. In fact, and here comes more craziness, I could see a situation where one FF'er is left in Donegal NE...

On Galway East, a source I know there suggests that the grassroots are seriously pissed about the four candidates thing, and furthermore that one of the candidates will be an epic blow-out. Also, apparently Paddy McHugh has been making some conrtoversial quotes about people drink driving to mass, I don't know how that will turn out.

And before I finish, I better explain my Fiona theory! Of all the PD's in the Dáil, she is probably the least offensive/most likeable personality wise, and considering she's in a five seater, I figured she would have a better chance than Herr McDowell or Mata Harney. Should I hire a straightjacket?!

[P.J. McDuff]

Donegal NE is gonna be a hell of a thing this year, McDaid is gonna either top the poll with record numbers or bomb out, I can't wait to see what insane ramblings he comes up with this time around.

Anyways, as regards Labour's proposed tax cuts, do you think that will have an electoral effect?