Ireland Election 2007

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It looks like the Coalition will return at the stage, or at least FF will - never underestimate FF's Get out the vote and media machine.

*sigh*

Would seriously think of emigrating if SF got into goverment, which isn't totally impossible after the election.

Hopefully the PD's will be wiped out - I hope.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Yay!

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True. But Bertie has alot of momentum at the moment. Plus it seems like people are really waking up to the weaknesses of the opposition. Enda Kenny needs a message better than We're not as  incompetent or as corrupt as Fianna Fail.

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I'd agree with that - I was just being Fatalistic.

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No I don't think so, Just enough so that McDowell loses his leadership (Unlikely, I know) would be good. Though if they do that badly they might aswell do the long awaited merger with FF.
I don't really hate the PDs as much as some people, though they are still way too friendly to big business (more so than the other parties) and are run by an Authoritian fool - plus they have been in power way too long at this stage.

As for me, I plan to vote for either FG\Lab as my first preference. Simply because they are not the other guys.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Such is the joy of Irish politics. Remember all that hype over FG's demise after 2002, especially after Pat Rabbite took over labour? And how we're finally going to get a functioning opposition? Yeaaaaaaahhhhh......

Too bad the only thing I can remember Pat doing recently is his constant pimping of Labour to FG.

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Well as a Dublin Southian I doubt that O'Donnell is safe - likely to hold on to her seat? Yep. But not purely safe.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Around here O'Donnell losing her seat was seen as a near-certainty until McDowell's "No single party goverment" campaign. Kitt + Brennan are safe. As is Olivia Mitchell. Then it's between Shatter\O'Donnell\Ryan\Labour Candidate for the remaining two seats.

In saying that Dublin South is natural PD terriority (unlike Wexford) so it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest to me or anyone if she survived. It will of course all probably depend on tactical voting and the last few weeks campaigning.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Alas, Poor Yorlik, It is true, It is true - Politics truly is the hashish of the Irish people (Oliver St John Gogarty); and King Bertie's reign will continue unchallenged as per usual.

Though the Bride at this stage is certain, and as it's Bride who really wears the trousers in a FF-led goverment this is important - Queen Trevor, Queen Michael, Queen Patrick or even Queen Jerry.. such a hard decision, though the Greens clearly look the best prepared - the most beautiful and desirable with a good dowry in tow. It's not impossible.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Though the Bride at this stage is certain, and as it's Bride who really wears the trousers in a FF-led goverment this is important - Queen Trevor, Queen Michael, Queen Patrick or even Queen Jerry.. such a hard decision, though the Greens clearly look the best prepared - the most beautiful and desirable with a good dowry in tow. It's not impossible.

Queen Trevor - At this point I think that a FF/Green government is no better than 20/1. Neither party would have many members happy about the thought of this.

Queen Michael - Second most likely in my book is a return of FF/PD for a 3rd term. It's hard to see how both parties don't lose seats on 2002. If they are back, I'd say that it will be after a deal is cut with the FF-leaning Independents - though they themselves are also under some pressure this time.

Queen Pat - Most likely for me, or at least a FF/Lab government is - Pat mightn't have the stomach for it. If so, Mr. Howlin looks like the forerunner to take the reigns.

Queen Gerry - Well, Gerry, of course isn't contesting a seat, so Caoighín Ó Caoláin would be the man to walk up the aisle. I suspect though that a formal FF/SF government, with SF ministries is not probable right now. Though a SF supported FF minority government would not be out of the question - probably the 3rd most likely scenario in my book.

Queen Trevor - This Romance is ideal for Neither; The Green guide to seduction shows it needs it's subjects (Especially it's watermelons) to think of her as somewhat "radical" and "daring", not words to describe King Bertie (Despite a strange socialist conversion a few years ago). Yet the maths and fate might force these two to come together on the day of the great ball. This imagines that Queen Michael loses even more of her desirable numbers (not too unlikely), Queen Pat can not be swayed and Queen Gerry.. well, that say it all doesn't it? I say this is quite likely actually.

Queen Michael - At this stage I see two options for the PDs, Either a total end of the romance (such as losing all but 2 seats or similiar) or a similiar stunning return to desirability as in 2002, maybe this time "The Devil you know will look after FF" being what wooes the electorate. I hope not though, Michael McDowell is not a woman to be trusted.

Queen Patrick - Similiar to Queen Trevor but only more so, The Mathematics will make sense, so will Bertie's constant on-off flirting to the "Red Queen" be sufficient for him to have a sudden change of mind at the ball? I don't think so, the memories of the short lived romance between Queen Dick and King Albert back in 92' and the spectactular rejection afterwards is still too painful for the labour party subjects. I still say this won't be the match to be.

Queen Gerry (or Queen Caoighin if you will) - Can SF seduce more of the electorate to think it's violent and unpredictable days are over is now happy in traditional good ol' domestic confinement, like the rest of the brides-to-be (while still wanting to look like the rebellious child of times past)? If so and presuming the memories of an earlier romance keeps the labourites away, this unlikely marriage is not too unlikely. But if in Marriage how likely is it to last? Showing itself as a "normal party" might turn off those subjects charmed by it's "rebellious" image? And how will King Bertie's supposed brothers - such as King Tony of Britannia (or would be Gordon at that stage?) and the rest of the European princelings react to seeing a woman for such reputation and history in such a high and powerful position. Too controversial a marriage to be possible, If this is the only possible option still allowed by fate, then I would expect another twirl at electoral romance come 2008.

But sadly from my point of view, all of these couples are more likely than King Enda. Or King Bertie with Queen Enda.. now that would be some marriage, couldn't imagine that lasting long and be blissful to all those involved.

(And the fact that I've probably just confused everyone on the forum other than possibly Jas. )

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...

[Pedant]No they weren't. Cumann na nGaedhael and Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein were on opposite sides in the civil war. Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein later split into Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail over the issue of entering parliament (FF were in favour) while CnG merged with the "Centre party" (mainly made out of ex-home rule politicians) and a group of semi-fascists to form "Fine Gael".[/pedant]

And Since De Valera departed the scene there has been always no difference between the two parties in terms of policy. Only in terms of who votes for whom does it really show anything.

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.

The Difference between sh**t and sh**te is what I've often been told. I don't know if that was what Hunter was talking about.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past. There were Fine Gaelers would wished Ireland to enter the Second world war, for example. Also Fine Gael were originally "the Commonwealth party" (even though it was an FG-led goverment which made a republic in 1949) and supported Free trade with the UK, as opposed to De Valera's Autarky policy.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later?

Iirc the Presidency was originally a replacement for the position of governor general - the stand in for the British Monarch in Ireland and a position De Valera abolished under the 1937 constitution (it had been one of the original demands of the Anglo-Irish treaty).
Unsurprisingly Arch-Nationalist and Irish language enthuaist (putting it mildly) Douglas Hyde was chosen by both main parties to become the next president without even an election or any real opposition.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past.

Quite true.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.

Yep, agree with this also.

According to Michael Gallagher's research, nowadays the single biggest factor affecting how one votes here is how one's parents vote. And at least anecdotally, that appears to be quite true to me.

I would not be surprised by that one bit - which proves how 'liberal' our democratic culture really is - especially given that our politics was never based on class or something else which could explain that fact away. Internet link to that research (or at least a portion or something similiar)?
 
I'm mainly curious to see the geography - my prediction (not too difficult) is that the number of voters who vote differently from their parents is dramatically increased inside Dublin as opposed to the rest of the country.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Jas, You probably know more about trends and polls, etc than I do right now, but I severly doubt that Fine Gael will do even worse in Dublin than they did in 2002, you have them level with "Red Joe's" party for christ sake!

As for Dublin South, Right now I'm not too sure for your assessement. Yes, Brennan, Kitt and Mitchell are almost certainly safe but Ryan and O'Donnell are very much on risky terriority. But you're right in regards to Labour shooting themselves in the foot in regards to running two candidates (Strangely so are Sinn Fein, unusual given that this is probably the least-SF friendly constituency in the country.) - still right now from the recent poll the most-awaited PD collapse seems to be coming. So I'd predict that Culihan (Labour; probably the better placed of the two candidates) will unseat O'Donnell. Ryan will remain. Though Alan Shatter is always a possibility, but he will probably fall short again, unfortunate given that I quite like him actually.

Jas, You're registered in.. Cavan\Monaghan, am I correct?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, Jas Using your overall results we get:

FF: 72
FG: 36
Lab: 24
GP: 7
SF: 7
PD: 5
Soc: 2
Ind: 9

Gridlock ahoy!

But honestly, I think you have Labour and the PD's too high and FG + Greens too low. The rest look somewhat accurate.

EDIT: I forgot to mention but your Entry for Mayo isn't entirely clear whether there would be 2FF's seats or not. I counted 1FF and 2IND, just to let you know.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

Many people in the press and media have called for it, but the chances of it ever happening are literally zilch. Too many personal enemity for one thing, another is that would be extremely damaging to the two parties if the goverment loses popularity, and especially damaging to Fine Gael.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yay! Another Irish Poster.

And I agree with him too.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unsurprisingly the Media is once again going on about an issue which few actually seem to care about... *sigh*.

92% of people want this election to be about Political ISSUES. Not Bertie's house.

And McDowell's recent stunt is a joke. Trying to recreate what he did in 2002.. well, Michael that can only work once.

What are the odds on the PDs winning no seats - might be a good bet?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, are you updating your predictions, Jas?

(Avatar in honor of upcoming election, btw.)

Jas would probably know more than me but at this stage I give this (optimistic) prediction:

FF: 63
FG: 47
Lab: 23
SF: 9
Green: 9
PD: 3
Soc: 2
Ind: 10

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh, just in case you are curious The Political compass has published a chart of where it thinks all of Ireland's seven major parties lie. It can be see here:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/ireland

Admittely I have some doubts about it. The PDs now being in the "libertarian" section being the main one, but imo it's alot more accurate than most of their other charts.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh god there is so much things in this thread I wish to post.. damn, my 12 day absence. I was down in the constituency which recorded the highest Fianna Fail vote in the country, Laois-Offaly. I walked past the counting center on Friday Morning on my way to work.. all I heard was muttering, something about a "surge". I figured he was referring to an FG surge.. so I was optimistic, I didn't hear the results of Exit poll at this point. Maybe he was referring to an FG surge, it doesn't matter - Fianna Fail sucked all their support back into the "big Vacuum" (more a Big Vacuum than a Big tent) just as matters it most. When I first heard the news at 12:00 I almost literally fell off my seat when it was announced that FF had a chance of winning 3 seats in my home constituency - Dublin South. For a moment a repeat of the election of 1977 - that great con job - flashed as a possibly. Luckily Maria Corrigan finished sixth and well off the final seat.

An abscene which meant, along with confusion about postal ballots, I couldn't get a chance to vote. Either way, my probable first choice in Dublin South (Alan Shatter - FG) got elected anyway, so some good news.

I don't think there is any doubt that Ahern will be Taoiseach, To Quote Neil Delamare "He [Enda] will need Labour, The Greens, The PDs, The Independents, the weirdos, the orcs, the elves and Jackie Healy Rae".

I'm not really in a ranting mood (Sorry Folks!) so suffice to say I'm rather dissapointed, though not very surprised in the end. There is a sense in this country right now that things are about to go 'wrong' - The natural fatalism is part of the Irish condition - and thus if we changed the goverment in 2007 just as 'bad stuff' (never really defined; though it usually has something to do with the Housing market.) started to appear it would appear foolish and dumb. Better leave Good Ol' Captain Bertie on charge of sinking ship.. so that he can make it sink less.

I've been thinking of doing a British Electoral map with PR-STV, though I'm thinking of prodding Al into doing it instead.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yeah, I'd been wondering about your absence.

Yay! I've been noticed!!11

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

I pay that little heed. While McDaid has good reason (from what I've read) to be pissed with FF headquarters - though not as much as some other TDs or ex-TDs - this article doesn't mention his history of attention whoring. He'll be brought into line - for "stability" of course.

All the safe money is on FF-PD minority; but I must say I can't believe this is a good move for the Progressive Democrats - If they are to survive they should now go into opposition after receiving such a major hammering. If they didn't they might as well merge with FF.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

There was massive infighting in Donegal NE. McDaid only ran again to prevent Neil Blaney from reelection, who had recently joined FF but in his own previous independent tenure was basically SF lite. (The Blaney family has a long history in representing the area with such an agenda, first within FF, then outside it. And now back in.) The end result was that the mainline FF candidate fell by the wayside, with the pro- and anti-SF wings getting in.

SF-lite? Well debatable.. especially in recent years, there was no actual reason for Niall Blaney to be an independant - the original reason of his uncles explusion from the party was just that - his uncle's - over 35 years ago now. Plus Harry Blaney (Familyarchy is right!) was one of the independents who supported the FF-PD coalition between 1997-2002. Though I've read that Blaney and McDaid's campaigns basically didn't have any communication at all and in the end both camps hated each other. Worth noting that both are based in Letterkenny - the major town in the Constituency, while Keaveney (The other FF Candidate) was based in Inishowen.

Of course Nationalist feeling are much stronger in Donegal as in all the other Border counties - Only need to look at SF's results to prove that.

On Neil Blaney (Niall's uncle): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Blaney

[Tetro Kornbluth]

@Jas:

As a Dublin Southian I can tell you that Labour's "two candidate Strategy" never was.. literally what happened was there was a tie at the labour convention between White & Culihane. There then was a random draw where Culihane was selected, for whatever reason later on the Local labour party (realizing perhaps how much a better campaigner Alex White was) also added White to the ballot. With only one candidate labour would have for sure won a seat here. Either at Ryan or Shatter's expense.

I cannot see a happy fate for the greens at the end of this. It's probably best for them that Quinn didn't end up as CC, as Gormley's seat would be in deep trouble for 2012(presuming now.. the Greens could quit and FF-PD-IND would still have a majority). If nothing visible achieved by then an anti-Green gallop is inevitable. Labour will probably benefit the most, and to a lesser extent the far left, though I'm not sure on Barrett - with a high media profile I think people in Dun Laoghaire  (*cough* Richest constituency in the country *cough*) would realize how misleading his "People Before Profit" moniker was - plus how much of an issue are the local baths in Dun Laoghaire going to be in five years time. Potential though for two Labour seats in a good year there, and of course it used to be a stronghold of FG (When it was to home Liam Cosgrave...)

Of course any real speculation about 2012 is pointless right now.. I remember alot of commentators between 97-02 claiming it that Election 02' would be the death of the PD's.. they well off by five years, they doubled their seats in 2002...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No matter how much drugs I ingest that table makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Sort of like Jackie Healy Rae's hair - one of the wonders of the natural(?) world that, no matter how much you look you can't help but think "WTH!?".

Boyd Barrett was the leader of the Irish Historical revisionistic anti-everything especially American Brigade anti-war movement, a political movement with great, intelligent people campaigning with absolutely no brain running the show. UCD is in Dublin South East (I think), so I don't think he just got the stoner\student\right-on vote though that made up alot of it - Boyd Barrett is the poster boy of Cliche Born-in-Foxrock-but-still-very-left-wing protesters who like to think of themselves as "different" and "alienated from society" because of their "views" - mainly found in the old, boring tomes of their baby boom parents. The type of relic you now find in Rossport, Co. Mayo fighting the man and speaking for the people - who then vote for five TDs who completely oppose the "wishes of the people".

I've ranted enough for now. Thankfully no-one has mentioned Seamus Brennan topping the poll with 3,000 or so votes over the quota...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No matter how much drugs I ingest that table makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Sort of like Jackie Healy Rae's hair - one of the wonders of the natural(?) world that, no matter how much you look you can't help but think "WTH!?".

K... let me give another attempt at explanation. I analysed the transfers of Labour votes across the election. In doing so, I extrapolated the tabled data by comparing each combination of two parties to see how they did relative to one another in gaining Labour transfers.

For example, the first row is an analysis of how Fianna Fáil did from Labour transfers in comparison to the other parties. For every 1 transfer FF receivede from Labour, Fine Gael received (on average) 2.2, alternative Labour candidtaes got on average 2.98 transfers, the Greens 1.74 etc.

It's (IMO) a reasonable measure of the relative preferences of Labour voters. There's nothing terribly surprising about the data, it shows that Labour voters party preference (from most favoured to least) is: Lab; FG; Grn; Inds; FF; SF; N-T; PD.

Ah now I understand. Muchas Gracias. Good SF map btw, nice to see them getting totally pulverised as expected in Dublin South.. and most of the rest of the country. BTW Jas, in your constituency who would be considered SF's (I'm not spelling his name at this hour!) core and marginal vote. It's clearly not the urban poor.. though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ah now I understand. Muchas Gracias. Good SF map btw, nice to see them getting totally pulverised as expected in Dublin South.. and most of the rest of the country.

Pulverised - yes, but arguably it also demonstrates that they have a great deal of room available to grow and expand. Note the south coast, Wexford and Waterford, for example are not traditional SF/Republican areas. Now very competitive in Donegal and Sligo. While 2007 will represent a blow to SF, it is too early to say whether it will be really detrimental or not in the long-run.

BTW Jas, in your constituency who would be considered SF's (I'm not spelling his name at this hour!) core and marginal vote. It's clearly not the urban poor..

There has long been a solid Republican vote in Monaghan and (but to a lesser extent) Cavan. In 1981, it was for Cavan-Monaghan that Kieran Doherty, then on hunger strike in the Maze Prison, was elected in the General Election - in fact, he very nearly topped the poll. (The only other successful anti-H-block candidate was Paddy Agnew in Louth - another county with very heavy republican activities). And who was Doherty's Director of Elections? Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.

Ó Caoláin is also a different brand of SF candidate than that found in most other constituencies - very articulate, presentable, respectable background, nothing (too my knowledge) to suggest actual membership/involvement in the IRA. He's been running as a candidate since 1987, when he polled 7.3% (more than 4000 votes) - far more than almost anywhere else in the Republic, indeed this was at a time when SF polled only 11.4% in the North.

In his first three runs, Ó Caoláin failed to break 10%, his vote was fairly static, which would indicate to me that it was the same core Republican vote turning out for him. In 1997, his vote more than doubled - almost hitting 20% and has been solidly so ever since. It seems fairly clear that this increase has come at the expense of Fianna Fáil and Labour. It is (IMO) in fact the urban poor who have shored up the SF vote.

SF have become masterful at getting out votes which other parties ignored. They developed this tactic in the North and in places like Cavan-Monaghan during their normalisation process and have been busy applying it elsewhere, particularly Dublin. Like everywhere else, there are communities in this area which feel they ahve been ignored or sidelined by the establishment. SF can be a powerful community activist group and have proved to these people that they will listen and are willing to work for the local communities, though there methods in tackling anti-social behaviour (though at times very effective) have been...less than civilised. They can and do sort out people's problems, the basic function of politics at a local level.

Looking at local election results, the following are the breakdown of Cavan and Monaghan County Councils. Cavan County Council comprises: FF 11; FG 11; SF 3. Small, but obviously an important 3 votes. Monaghan comprises: FF 5; FG 7; SF 7; Green 1. They are the joint biggest party on the council and from local results it's clear that their vote is an urban one. They are strongest in the largest towns and their rise at this level has been almost entirely at FF's expense.

At this stage, Ó Caoláin is also getting votes as a constituency TD. He is as effective as any other local TD in this regard. Certainly more than some.

So it's on these bases that I would pin the SF vote here, a core republican element, the disaffected and less well off (as a protest vote and as a leftist vote), a solid and active local network and as a constiuency TD.

No other SF TD has this level of back-up which is why his is the safest SF seat.

though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

Only very recently, up until now the locals had rejected it as black magic.

Still though, you're doing well for a Dub, recognising there is an Ireland that (at least in some abstract form) does indeed exist beyond the city...

Rest of the Country...? I thought it was just a "Father Ted" related theme park for us sophisicated Dubs.